[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Arkmer wrote:
1 year ago
It’s tough to tell sometimes.
It's tough to tell because Wizards purposely hides and obscures data from players. And the data it does allow players to see is purposely skewed and misrepresents the format. And people who collected and distributed the data they were able to collect were hit with Cease and Desist orders from WOTC. Their management style is "ignorance is bliss," which is frankly lazy and frustrating.
Zorakkiller wrote:
1 year ago
so this is really just a way for wotc to arbitrarily ban things, knowing they will never give us the real data and the vagueness of the rule.
Yes! That is exactly why!
they should just use it in the most literal sense to avoid confusion and regain consumer confidence in the format. how can anyone spend any real amount of money on this format given how its managed
Honestly, this is literally the only reason I've never bought into Dredge. Between upping my free game 1 wins and drawing my whole deck, seems like a fun way to rack up store credit. But after being the recipient of multiple bans, I have been EXTREMELY hesitant to ever buy into a top deck again. My only deviation from that rule was Phoenix, but only because I literally had all the pieces already, other than the birds themselves, and managed to pick them up for reasonable prices.

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Post by tronix » 1 year ago

Zorakkiller wrote:
1 year ago
decks are winning before turn 4. this conflicts with wotc's stated goal
i wouldnt be surprised if the reality proved to be that the average turns played hasnt decreased much, if at all, in the last few years. rather its that the format 'feels' or is perceived as being faster because of the gameplay. such as the power of the haymaker type plays decks can present leaving little recourse for the player on the losing end to battle back; so the outcome is determined rather abruptly.

similarly a common criticism of the format is that players dont have adequate agency in determining the outcome (ie 'luck'). perhaps with more emphasis on the turning point in a given game it marginalizes the decisions leading up to it in players minds; leaving the impression games are 'nothing. nothing. nothing. wait im way behind or dead'. so the game may end on turn 4 or beyond but it seems quick.

is the stuff about luck actually the truth? i dunno. getting into the nitty gritty of analyzing decision trees in a game like magic is stupidly complex. i remember reading an article written by brian braun duin some time ago where he spoke of one of the biggest barriers that keeps players from breaking through from average/decent to being good is the inability or mis-identification of what decisions actually mattered to the outcome of the game or even realizing there was a decision they could have made. i wholly believe this is true. mtg at its core is based on a series of probabilistic plays. in the abstract there is some 'optimal' path at any given point, and the challenge is getting as close to it as possible. however in a probabilistic system it only means a better chance to gain an advantage/win, which in turn means you can make a correct/better choice and lose because of it or vice versa. people are typically results oriented by nature, and in a game like mtg this can trick them into believing that a favorable outcome for a given play means it was correct or that plays assumed to be good but ended up unfavorable must have been luck.

so for instance in a format like legacy with an emphasis on selection spells like brainstorm and a heavier emphasis on hidden information it stands to reason that this would leave the impression that a lot of meaningful decisions are being made. players get to 'feel' like they played a (slower) game when its entirely plausible that those decisions points were ultimately irrelevant.

anywho, sorta got off topic with this first post of mine here. maybe we're all just flipping coins to get more cardboard with pretty pictures on it.

unrelated note: im totally rooting for jund, with the additions to it and other decks from mh1, to become central in the meta cycle. let the seemingly ageless battle between UWx and GBx for fair deck supremacy continue.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

tronix wrote:
1 year ago
unrelated note: im totally rooting for jund, with the additions to it and other decks from mh1, to become central in the meta cycle. let the seemingly ageless battle between UWx and GBx for fair deck supremacy continue.
It's supposed to be URx vs. GBx. :P

Nobody really likes the GBx side of the GBx vs. UWx matchup except the one, the only, Reid Duke.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

tronix wrote:
1 year ago
perhaps with more emphasis on the turning point in a given game it marginalizes the decisions leading up to it in players minds; leaving the impression games are 'nothing. nothing. nothing. wait im way behind or dead'. so the game may end on turn 4 or beyond but it seems quick.
Had a recent game like this for Titanshift. Essentially T1 land, suspend Search for Tomorrow, T2 land, pass, T3 land, exile Simian Spirit Guide, cast Through the Breach for Primeval Titan. Titan grabs 2x Valakut on ETB. Go to attacks. Titan grabs 2x Mountain on attack, trigger Valakuts for 12 + 6 from Prime Time. I untap for my 3rd turn at 2 life, draw Field of Ruin and just concede.

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Post by spawnofhastur » 1 year ago

I know that we're doom and glooming because Faithless Looting still exists.

But we're currently in a Modern format where Goblins is 5-0ing very consistently. Now, I know, "5-0s don't mean anything..." but I am personally happy that a tribal midrange archetype like Goblins appears to at least be doing a thing.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

ringleader and matron gave the gobs some boost. :)

A friend is currently trying to build a vial version of it. With ringleader here in modern, it almost feels like legacy. Well, almost... since we don't have the Goblin Lackey. Maybe lackey will be in MH2?
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Good video here.
https://www.channelfireball.com/videos/ ... 1562992861

Several important points they brought up.
1. "Nobody" was really surprised that Faithless Looting did not get banned. As much as people were talking about it, I also agree that I don't think that hardly anybody in their heart of hearts really thought it would get banned. Too much of a shake up and definitely more than at any other 1 time in Modern.
2. Neoform with Griselbrand is probably on the watch list. They alluded to a fact that the meta being 10% Neoform would be excessive and lead to a ban, while it's "acceptable" with Tron. While I disagree with the percentages (I literally think anything over 5% and Neoform would be canned), they have a really important point about WotC - nobody wants to admit it, but certain decks and strategies have a HUGE advantage in getting banned or not getting banned.

*Funny thing near the end of the video - LSV called Matt a "loser" as a semi joke and Matt took it a bit roughly, saying that it is pretty excessive. As a fairly nerdy dude myself, that felt a bit awkward, but was a bit funny at the same time (no, please don't think I'm a monster).
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Neoform is certainly being watch and WOTC has said as much. I'm playing it and I like it, I liked hogaak, twin and a few other combo decks better because they wete not as much a glass cannon but this is fine for now. I saw another person this week win with it on turn 1 on the draw after his opponent thoughtseized his neoform, he top decked another one on his first draw and went off. That was pretty awsome. Faster than hogaak was, but I know the consistency is the difference. Still it is fairly consistent, doesn't use the graveyard, wins on the spot, often wins turn three or earlier, sounds good enough for me to play.
I expect at some point this deck will receive a ban or at the very very least some specific hate cards of some kind to get printed. (Like rending volly was for twin) It is an obvious turn four violator and I think it is consistent. I have almost accepted that any deck that I enjoy playing is generally considered to be a problem deck and it is likely to be taken away from me. That really sucks, but that's the style of gameplay I enjoy playing.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Looks like Hogaak is still doing just fine. A casual 20 power in play, and attacking for 9 on their turn 2, on the draw.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/9523/XYLG9Z.png

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

Then Phoenix player untaps, cast four spells and gg 😌

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Post by Necrofish » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Maybe [Goblin Lackey] will be in MH2?
If we get a MH2 I hope for more reprints and less powerful new cards. My wallet can't handle.
Wydwen is much too cool for you.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

Necrofish wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Maybe [Goblin Lackey] will be in MH2?
If we get a MH2 I hope for more reprints and less powerful new cards. My wallet can't handle.
I feel you. Spent around $200 already on MH. I still need 3 Force of Negation, play sets of the Horizon lands, 3-4 Wrenn and 6s, and some other odds and ends like Force of Vigor and more. Sad times, especially after leaving for vacation, using over $150 in store credit at assorted places picking up playsets of Narset, T3feri, Karn tgc + Mycosynth Lattice, Collector Ouphes, Giver of Runes, Eladamri's Calls, Finales of Devastation, and a few more minor cards. I've probably spent around $400 on cards in the past month. :(
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - MBA, UB Inverter
Modern - Amulet Titan, Elementals, Yawmoth Chord, Uroza
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
Then Phoenix player untaps, cast four spells and gg 😌
Ironically, I did cast 4 spells, but could only put him to 2. He then brought everything back again and killed me. Welcome to Modern.

Also for the record, I wasn't playing Phoenix, and was 2-0 going into this round 3. :party:

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
Then Phoenix player untaps, cast four spells and gg 😌
Ironically, I did cast 4 spells, but could only put him to 2. He then brought everything back again and killed me. Welcome to Modern.

Also for the record, I wasn't playing Phoenix, and was 2-0 going into this round 3. :party:
Heh, it just happens. In the last two months I jammed Suicide Bloo several times, and I was almost undefeated against Hogaak in tournament (7-1 in matches). It’s probably the best deck against it along with Phoenix (which has basically more ways to dig for TiTi and often Surgical maindeck, but usually doesn’t have maindeck Forces).

Nut draws can happen.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
Nut draws can happen.
I don't think it's just a matter of nut draws anymore. The new addition is to use Hedron Crab, which the guy said had been absolutely nuts for him. He said he basically never stumbled on anything all night, and the only cards he loses to are Turn 3 Ensnaring Bridge or Turn 0 Leyline. He said pretty much everything else is too slow or can be worked around. Must be nice. :thinking:

The only matches I lost all night were to him and to a burn player with double Eidolon. Interaction/reaction is for suckers. The most important element in the format is winning the die roll and getting them dead.

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

Must be nice taking for granted the words of a random person that claims he’s playing a Tier 0 when he’s evidently not ^^

It’s about statistics. You can’t open that kind of hand consistently, PLUS with the opponent having no interaction all the time. Hedron Crab is weak to any kind of removal and it does something only from turn two on. Not dismissing the idea, eh! But let’s stop pretending what happened here is the norm. It’s not 😉

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
Must be nice taking for granted the words of a random person that claims he’s playing a Tier 0 when he’s evidently not ^^
He's one of my buddies I see there regularly (and play Commander with). He'd been on Hogaak basically since it existed. He says the net loss in terms of putting creatures into play is minimal to zero, in terms of putting enough in play to kill opponents. It loses the combo mill kill and loses to Ensnaring Bridge. Otherwise, still very, very good. I take his word for it because he's been jamming and grinding with it for a while.
It’s about statistics.
Cool! Let me know when we get any! As we now know, Hogaak lists were 5-0ing three times more than the next highest deck. Imagine what other secrets these data results are hiding! But hey, at least we get to trick ourselves into false ideas about the format thanks to a daily dose of "super cool diversity" lists.
But let’s stop pretending what happened here is the norm.
Never said that this much on turn 2 was the norm, just that his interpretation and experience with the deck was that it is still very fast, extremely reliable, and extremely powerful. It's also effectively immune to any discard effects, counters, or removal that doesn't exile. Battle of Sideboards. C'est la vie.

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 1 year ago

Cool! Let me know when we get any! As we now know, Hogaak lists were 5-0ing three times more than the next highest deck. Imagine what other secrets these data results are hiding! But hey, at least we get to trick ourselves into false ideas about the format thanks to a daily dose of "super cool diversity" lists.
How has this anything to do with what I previously said? We were talking about how statistically is *impossible* for Hogaak to always open with turn two ‘I cast everything I have’. And we’re talking about the deck after the bans, not before,

But I already learned that arguing with you is like throwing my head against a brick. Talking about the format diversity AGAIN while we were discussing something totally unrelated. My god.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
But I already learned that arguing with you is like throwing my head against a brick.
Seems like you just have a bone to pick with me at every opportunity. I'm sorry you feel this way. If you have an issue with me, you can either address it privately, or simply ignore me. No need to drag needless MTGS drama over here too. All I wanted to do was share my experiences and the experiences of those at my store.
Talking about the format diversity AGAIN while we were discussing something totally unrelated. My god.
I tried to bring things back to the main subject of what this thread is supposed to be about, while addressing the deck in question.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
Necrofish wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Maybe [Goblin Lackey] will be in MH2?
If we get a MH2 I hope for more reprints and less powerful new cards. My wallet can't handle.
I feel you. Spent around $200 already on MH. I still need 3 Force of Negation, play sets of the Horizon lands, 3-4 Wrenn and 6s, and some other odds and ends like Force of Vigor and more. Sad times, especially after leaving for vacation, using over $150 in store credit at assorted places picking up playsets of Narset, T3feri, Karn tgc + Mycosynth Lattice, Collector Ouphes, Giver of Runes, Eladamri's Calls, Finales of Devastation, and a few more minor cards. I've probably spent around $400 on cards in the past month. :(
yeah, plenty of good cards with high price tags from MH1. I heard it is a print to demand set, I do hope they print more as there is certainly demand for cards from it.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

Question about the new site: do we have the same moderators as before or do we even have moderators right now? The small arguement a few posts up just made me wonder.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Question about the new site: do we have the same moderators as before or do we even have moderators right now? The small arguement a few posts up just made me wonder.
It would be good to know going forward if users are going to be grilled and harassed for sharing experiences. :hmm:

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Post by LennX » 1 year ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
1 year ago
Question about the new site: do we have the same moderators as before or do we even have moderators right now? The small arguement a few posts up just made me wonder.
On this forum, adding a user as a "foe" is equal to blocking that user. Let's not give the mods too much work at the start.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
BloodyRabbit wrote:
1 year ago
Nut draws can happen.
I don't think it's just a matter of nut draws anymore. The new addition is to use Hedron Crab, which the guy said had been absolutely nuts for him. He said he basically never stumbled on anything all night, and the only cards he loses to are Turn 3 Ensnaring Bridge or Turn 0 Leyline. He said pretty much everything else is too slow or can be worked around. Must be nice. :thinking:

The only matches I lost all night were to him and to a burn player with double Eidolon. Interaction/reaction is for suckers. The most important element in the format is winning the die roll and getting them dead.
Crab tech. This got me curious. Could Hogaak be the reason that crabs are 4$ each now? Or they have been that price even before Hogaak was printed?
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Post by Misguided1 » 1 year ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
1 year ago
Necrofish wrote:
1 year ago
The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
Maybe [Goblin Lackey] will be in MH2?
If we get a MH2 I hope for more reprints and less powerful new cards. My wallet can't handle.
I feel you. Spent around $200 already on MH. I still need 3 Force of Negation, play sets of the Horizon lands, 3-4 Wrenn and 6s, and some other odds and ends like Force of Vigor and more. Sad times, especially after leaving for vacation, using over $150 in store credit at assorted places picking up playsets of Narset, T3feri, Karn tgc + Mycosynth Lattice, Collector Ouphes, Giver of Runes, Eladamri's Calls, Finales of Devastation, and a few more minor cards. I've probably spent around $400 on cards in the past month. :(
Yea, I feel ya. I had the commander's aresenal II or whatever it was called, bought it to play with friends, which means it gets dusted off once a year for 1-2 games. I decided %$#% it and sent anything not bulk to CK along with some stuff in my binder for some credit. Once that processes I should be able to finish off E Tron, but I still have other MH cards that I want to pick up before their prices balloon too far out of control. Thankfully have my FoN playset bought already.

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