[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Bearscape
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Post by Bearscape » 1 year ago

deimos035 wrote:
1 year ago
I'm still baffled about AS/Opal talk. How many recent decks with AS were broken? Scales? No evidence of that, Tron? People tend to complain about everytime Tron is good because of meta. Opal was not the reason KCI was banned, so I'm still wondering what makes people think those cards should be banned? Tier 1 is not a safe place, that much is obvious, but neither Tron, nor Scales and not even Opal itself warps the meta (unless wotc will break it with other cards in the future, but it can happen for almost any deck).
From a pure individual powerlevel, Ancient Stirrings and Mox Opal do things that are generally "not allowed" in Modern - i.e. very powerful card selection and easy free mana. And as with Faithless Looting, it does not take much for a newly released card to break this card further as they are such efficient engines. That's why they are basically "high profile" cards and I think Jim Davis' statement that Mox Opal is banned in a year is not that insane of a hot take.

That being said, I would be very skeptical of anyone who would argue for a ban of anything at the next banlist update. Modern is just wide open. I'd be willing to make predictions on things like whirza ending up being a top tier deck, and I could see it being too much in the end and getting something banned (and then Opal is a target). I could also see it being completely fine after people start sideboarding more hate for it. I could NOT see trying to defend already wanting bans for anything right now.

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Post by Ym1r » 1 year ago

Hm, did the newly spoiled "Dance of the Manse" broke Whirza?

Dance of the Manse
XWU
Sorcery
Return up to X target artifact and/or non-Aura enchantment cards each with converted mana cost X or less from your graveyard to the battlefield. If X is 6 or more, those permanents are 4/4 creatures in addition to their other types.

In the context of this card Emry makes MUCH more sense than it did before. Now you don't only have to deal with the combo pieces on the board, but they can always just pay 4 mana and 2 pieces back. They can also T3feri into this EOT and swing for a ton.

I am not sure if this is actually any good, maybe I am completely off as I haven't done any proper assessment yet. Just my reaction the moment I saw it.
Counter, draw a card.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

They sure are printing plenty of artifact support spells. A few more like this and something might end up broken..
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Post by deimos035 » 1 year ago

Bearscape wrote:
1 year ago
deimos035 wrote:
1 year ago
I'm still baffled about AS/Opal talk. How many recent decks with AS were broken? Scales? No evidence of that, Tron? People tend to complain about everytime Tron is good because of meta. Opal was not the reason KCI was banned, so I'm still wondering what makes people think those cards should be banned? Tier 1 is not a safe place, that much is obvious, but neither Tron, nor Scales and not even Opal itself warps the meta (unless wotc will break it with other cards in the future, but it can happen for almost any deck).
From a pure individual powerlevel, Ancient Stirrings and Mox Opal do things that are generally "not allowed" in Modern - i.e. very powerful card selection and easy free mana. And as with Faithless Looting, it does not take much for a newly released card to break this card further as they are such efficient engines. That's why they are basically "high profile" cards and I think Jim Davis' statement that Mox Opal is banned in a year is not that insane of a hot take.

That being said, I would be very skeptical of anyone who would argue for a ban of anything at the next banlist update. Modern is just wide open. I'd be willing to make predictions on things like whirza ending up being a top tier deck, and I could see it being too much in the end and getting something banned (and then Opal is a target). I could also see it being completely fine after people start sideboarding more hate for it. I could NOT see trying to defend already wanting bans for anything right now.
I understand that, it's just that both of these cards on their own and in their current shells did not provide any specific reason (AS probably is even less 'banable' than Opal) to ban them. To theorize about both cards being broken in the future is no different from looking at other pieces of other decks. So far I don't see specific evidence (even historically) for AS to warp the meta or the decks it is used in to warrant a ban. Artifact shenanigans were always dangerous, so maybe Opal is more of a high risk card than the Tron staple.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

deimos035 wrote:
1 year ago
So far I don't see specific evidence (even historically) for AS to warp the meta or the decks it is used in to warrant a ban.
KCI. The ban announcement itself even stated how AS and Opal were both considered as options to ban, but they decided to just nuke the deck instead by banning the namesake card.

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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

Here's the REAL deal on Ancient Stirrings:

-If it the decks that currently consider AS a staple stay where they are at now in terms of relative power, it's safe
-If any those decks become a problem because of a new card being printed, AS will surely be the card to ban

Once upon a time is a pretty nice consolation prize. It's far less obnoxious, and free spells are typically modern material.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

once upon a time currently at 10 dollar for singles pre-order. Seems to be some hype around this card.

__________

saw this at scg

http://www.starcitygames.com/articles/3 ... odern.html
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Preorder hype is incredibly misleading. May be right, may be wrong, but let's all remember that tons of cards preorder oddly high and then fall flat. Just like tons of cards pre order low and spike up. We're terrible at evaluating individual cards because cards don't exist in a vacuum. Doing something once for free, and only as your first action, is probably good, but nothing game-breaking.

I could definitely see Once Upon A Time being nuts in the opening hand of a deck that plays Ancient Stirrings. Would be fun to watch them dig 10 deep for 2 cards as they laugh at Dig Through Time on the banned list.

Otherwise, what's the way to break this turn 1, besides some combo (like Neobrand)?. Being free once doesn't seem like a problem. At least not any bigger of a problem than the obvious ridiculous power of green cantrips while all the blue ones are banned or terrible. Digging 5 for 2 mana is reasonable, but not even amazing, especially at sorcery speed.

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Post by Simto » 1 year ago

They're maybe lining up for an Ancient Stirrings ban given how Once Upon A Time works. I'd be getting 4 asap for my Tron deck if Stirrings was banned.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

There's a GP going on right now??? I had no idea until I saw this pop up on my Twitter.



Edit: never mind, this is teams. Disregard results.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Here's the REAL deal on Ancient Stirrings:

-If it the decks that currently consider AS a staple stay where they are at now in terms of relative power, it's safe
-If any those decks become a problem because of a new card being printed, AS will surely be the card to ban

Once upon a time is a pretty nice consolation prize. It's far less obnoxious, and free spells are typically modern material.
I think this is an important point for us all to remember. Cards like Mox Opal, Ancient Stirrings, Simian Spirit Guide, and Manamorphose are all a bit more powerful than what we should have in Modern, but they're allowed to stay because they enable different archetypes. If those archetypes become a problem, though, they're the cards most likely to go.

This is exactly what happened with Faithless Looting. When I started playing Modern in 2014, nobody played graveyard hate in their sideboards because graveyard decks barely existed. Faithless Looting was giving some power to a very underpowered group of decks, so it was fine. Over time, WotC printed more graveyard payoffs and enablers until we reached a point where the graveyard decks were a problem, and now Faithless Looting wasn't ok in the format anymore.

The same could easily happen with cards like Mox Opal and Ancient Stirrings. They're fine right now, but all it could take is a couple sets that push artifacts or colorless cards.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
Here's the REAL deal on Ancient Stirrings:

-If it the decks that currently consider AS a staple stay where they are at now in terms of relative power, it's safe
-If any those decks become a problem because of a new card being printed, AS will surely be the card to ban

Once upon a time is a pretty nice consolation prize. It's far less obnoxious, and free spells are typically modern material.
good points. Well, no AS deck is at Hogaak power levels yet.. so I guess it's in the safe zone for now.

Opal is on the same boat. I still remember people wanting this little artifact banned years ago when Lantern was hot stuff.
I don't have the card anymore, but the guy who bought the playset from me in 2017 is probably gonna get angry if it got banned. Mox Opals cost a lot.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Yeah, Opal really needs a reprint. That's the big reason why I'm waiting on building Whirza too. I don't want to buy in, and then the deck ends up being busted and Opal gets banned. I would be really annoyed if I just lost $400 like that...
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

waiting for the opal reprint is the safe thing I agree.

how WoTC banned bridge instead of Hog. Pretty sure they would shoot the opal instead of Urza if the Whirza deck ends up broken. hmm, are there any other cards they could ban in whirza besides opal and urza to nerf the deck?

edit: have seen fnm reports that Whirza can be stopped if attacked from multiple angles with sideboard cards. The deck looks just fine for now.
Last edited by The Fluff 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

I doubt that they would bother. Opal would go first because it acts as fast, free mana for little cost. If the deck was still broken, they'd likely go for the kill because they wouldn't want to risk the bad PR that would come from needing 3 bans to stop a deck from being broken. Hogaak is a good example: they could have tried to go for Stitcher and Looting instead of Hogaak but instead went for the kill

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

then after the bans on Whirza, they would apologize by unbanning Green Sun's Zenith. just kidding.

____________________

Oh, and on another thing. Dredge looks like it's still strong.

https://www.starcitygames.com/decks/Sta ... ern_Dallas

Or maybe it took advantage of people going low on gy removal?
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Zero UW in that top 16 is really surprising. BW Blade looks similar to the first deck I ever played in Modern before I discovered Scalding Tarns.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

That dredge deck looks solid, and obviously it is because it won. I don't like 4 colors personally. It's still early days since the FL ban, so there is still evolution to be done for all the graveyard decks. It is good to see dredge is not just dead.

I like the BW stoneblade deck too. I'm working on a similar list using squadron hawks and smallpox. The format really feels wide open right now.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

Dredge is still alive. This 5-0 is recent at Sept 13.
It seems cathartic reunion is enough to keep the deck afloat.
Also saw a few lists on other sites that try to use Tome Scour as loot replacement.
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

So what we are seeing so far is exactly what was predicted as far as the SFM package goes. It's basically slottable into any shell due to it's small footprint and high efficiency. Whoever the "pro" was claiming otherwise can go pound sand now.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Team event results don't really tell us anything, but at least we should see some interesting lists.

Whirza was already the second best deck during Hogaak, and lost nothing, so I expect it to stay that way unless something big breaks out. It's a shame because many of us have said before, it's really hard to throw down $450+ for a card that is absolutely on the "this is likely to be banned" watch liat. Shame. Deck looks super fun, in addition to being powerful.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
So what we are seeing so far is exactly what was predicted as far as the SFM package goes. It's basically slottable into any shell due to it's small footprint and high efficiency. Whoever the "pro" was claiming otherwise can go pound sand now.
What makes you say that? This was a team event. Those lists could have been far from ideal, and could have ended up with a poor individual record, carried by their teammates. There's nothing really meaningful to pull from any individual decklist in a team event. Especially sloppy or erratic deckbuilding by excited players trying out new toys in a totally chaotic and unsettled meta.

Did putting Kiki Jiki and Restoration Angel make Twin better? Or was it some wonky thing some people did because they thought it was cool? That's what putting Stoneforge in Whirza looks like. :hmm:

Looking at the two Stoneblade decks (bant and jeskai), both are utilizing the T3feri/Queller package to great effect as a body to wear a Sword, as well as just being good tempo plays when you aren't regularly board wiping. Jeskai has heavy burn elements, with Jace at the top end, and if I'm seeing this right, 0 Colonnades. It's a lean midrange deck looking to tempo/attack/burn. Bant has tons of creatures, a protection package with Giver of Runes, value package with Ice-Fang and Tracker, and 6 mana accelerating creatures. Very different than just "slotting into UW" for example.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
robertleva wrote:
1 year ago
So what we are seeing so far is exactly what was predicted as far as the SFM package goes. It's basically slottable into any shell due to it's small footprint and high efficiency. Whoever the "pro" was claiming otherwise can go pound sand now.
What makes you say that? This was a team event. Those lists could have been far from ideal, and could have ended up with a poor individual record, carried by their teammates. There's nothing really meaningful to pull from any individual decklist in a team event. Especially sloppy or erratic deckbuilding by excited players trying out new toys in a totally chaotic and unsettled meta.

Did putting Kiki Jiki and Restoration Angel make Twin better? Or was it some wonky thing some people did because they thought it was cool? That's what putting Stoneforge in Whirza looks like. :hmm:

Looking at the two Stoneblade decks (bant and jeskai), both are utilizing the T3feri/Queller package to great effect as a body to wear a Sword, as well as just being good tempo plays when you aren't regularly board wiping. Jeskai has heavy burn elements, with Jace at the top end, and if I'm seeing this right, 0 Colonnades. It's a lean midrange deck looking to tempo/attack/burn. Bant has tons of creatures, a protection package with Giver of Runes, value package with Ice-Fang and Tracker, and 6 mana accelerating creatures. Very different than just "slotting into UW" for example.
Yep. I was looking at mtgtop8, trying to find the things that I would like in my Whirza list and I came across a 1st place list that had 4 Stoneforge Mystic. The tournament had 220 players as well (it looked like it was in Europe). I personally think that Stoneforge Mystic is not as good as Goblin Engineer in Whirza because of the things you can do with Engineer if it survives. If Stoneforge Mystic survives in that deck, nobody cares.

P.S. - it made me a bit sad that it won, I think beating Valakut in the finals because those were exactly my 2 top deck choices for the MCQ that I cancelled going to today. I was 50/50 and had 2 deck lists with me in my backpack.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

Yeah, I don't think SFM is good in Whirza. Engineer is better because it gets both of your combo pieces, and puts the Sword in your graveyard instead of your hand. Plus, it can get other utility artifacts and recur them if it gets to survive a turn. SFM can't do any of that, it's just a nice midrange threat, but Whirza isn't weak on that front anyway. Urza himself is a nice midrange threat with his construct and his card drawing, and Tezzeret also lets you attack from a fair angle. I really don't see anything of value that SFM adds to that deck.
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Post by robertleva » 1 year ago

I missed the team event aspect of the results. Ok fine ill retract for now, but just wait, SFM will be used all over the place. Will those decks always beat non SFM decks? Nope, but thats not the point. We are talking about the efficiency of the SFM package making it attractive to many shells. It can probably even be proved mathematically.
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