tronix wrote: ↑
2 years ago
an understated difference in the use cases as wraithpk outlined is the boost in efficacy and likelihood of impacting the outcome of the game when immediate selection is of particular importance. for example if you need to find something right away SV is of minimal to no help while preordain...helps more. not very probable to happen often, but if ever deciding a game or a match the performance of the card will stand out more.
anywho this future unban talk is optimistic to the point of bordering on delusional. nothing is going to be unbanned any time soon
So, in the case where you're looking for a one-outter, if the card is on top of your deck SV is better. Both draw the card this turn and find your one-outter, but SV gives you additional filtering for upcoming turns. Preordain is better if the card is second or third from the top, since you can find it this turn, whereas SV won't get it until next turn, but that's only going to be true if you also have the mana to cast the card this turn. If you don't, they're equal, as SV will draw it next turn and cast it at the same time as Preordain. If it's further down than that, both cards are equal, as they'll both dig three deep towards it.
Like I said, Preordain is definitely the better card overall, but it's not better in every situation. People relate Preordain to Ponder all the time because they're both banned in Modern and see play in Legacy, but Preordain is much MUCH
closer in power to SV than it is to Ponder. Brainstorm and Ponder are the truly broken blue cantrips. I don't think Preordain is broken, it's just good. It probably wouldn't have any real impact on Modern.
That said, it'll probably never be unbanned, because I think the banning of Faithless Looting shows that WotC wants to remove the strong 1 mana cantrips. I think it's more likely that we eventually see Ancient Stirrings get banned than us ever seeing Preordain released. Besides, there aren't going to be any more unbannings for at least a year. I still think it's fun to talk about what cards could be unbanned, as long as we all recognize that nothing else is coming off any time soon.
pierreb wrote: ↑
2 years ago
I think your analysis is misleading for the following reasons:
- Most of the time, you're looking for one card, not two. At the very least, you usually need one card now and the other can wait at least a turn.
- Modern is a fast format where early turns count, so drawing the best-of-two is better than drawing random and setting up your next draw.
- Setting up your future draws is messed up by fetches.
With this in mind, preordain is always better than SV.
Ok, I'll address each of your points in turn:
1. That's not true at all. How many times do you cast a SV and want to top both cards? Plenty of times. Especially in the early turns of the game, you're not often looking for one thing in particular. Your argument is basically that it's much more common to only want the second or third card down and not the other two than it is to want two of the top three cards, and you need to provide some data to back up that conjecture, or else you're just using your "feeling" and stating it as fact.
2. Except that SV is better in the early turns of the game than Preordain, because if you don't have the mana available to cast the thing you find, the advantage of Preordain drawing the card this turn means nothing since you can't cast it until the next turn anyway, while seeing an additional card deeper means that SV also gets to cast the card next turn, but also potentially gets to bottom an unwanted card that Preordain doesn't see. What you're missing here is that both cards are going to draw you a random card. SV draws you a random card this turn and filters the next two, while Preordain filters the top two and draws one of those if you want, but the third card down will be a random card you'll draw at some point.
3. Only if you play poorly. It's really not hard to fetch before playing SV. I don't think it's a valid criticism that a card is worse if you make bad plays.
So with that in mind, Preordain is not always better than SV. Here's an easy example: on turn 1 SV is always better or equal to Preordain. Preordain choosing what you draw this turn means nothing if you can't cast it, which takes away its advantage where you get a card you want this turn where SV wouldn't get it until next turn. SV, on the other hand, will see more cards on average, since it always sees 3 cards, while Preordain only sees 3 if you double bottom.
If you're only digging for one card and chain multiple copies, preordain is *much* better because you get to choose between two cards first, then dumping them if they're not the right ones and draw the mystery card. This usually results in you needing to cast fewer cantrips in one turn: if it's the top card, they are equal. If it's the 2nd or 3rd card, preordain is better as you will draw the 2nd or 3rd.
No, if it's the top card SV is better because both cantrips will get the card for you this turn, but SV sees the third card down, whereas Preordain does not. If it's the 2nd or 3rd card down, Preordain is better IFF you also have the available mana to cast it this turn. If not, SV is better if it's the second card, since it sees the 3rd card and lets you bottom/top it, and they're equal if it's the 3rd card, since both will draw the card and a random card by the next turn.