[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Are you really living if you aren't fetching up an Elbrus? That 1 mana equip on an evasive body is GASSSSS.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/1860/3xYAmb.png

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Are you really living if you aren't fetching up an Elbrus? That 1 mana equip on an evasive body is GASSSSS.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/1860/3xYAmb.png
Might be good against decks that can't kill a creature, but i'm not sure it's worth a slot otherwise. It gets stuck in your hand even worse than Batterskull if your SFM dies, and it still dies to a Path.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

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urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Are you really living if you aren't fetching up an Elbrus? That 1 mana equip on an evasive body is GASSSSS.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/1860/3xYAmb.png
Might be good against decks that can't kill a creature, but i'm not sure it's worth a slot otherwise. It gets stuck in your hand even worse than Batterskull if your SFM dies, and it still dies to a Path.
Oh, it's not good at all, but it sure is great! It's a "gotcha" card. I'm playing 22 creatures, 4 Lingering Souls, and two Elspeths in that list. The 1 mana equip cost is negligible, and it will force them to waste removal on some throwaway body. But the point is more just to play around with wacky stuff in this totally skewed meta until people figure out what the soul-crushingly good decks are. People bashing a bunch of Tier 2 decks against each other is probably the absolute best experience one can have in Modern.

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Post by ThatStoryTeller » 1 year ago

elbrus... see THIS is what I was afraid of /s

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 1 year ago

If it flips it is very powerful but this encourages interaction. Creature or artifact remove or even discard or bounce spells can handle this. Of all the things in modern to be afraid of, I'm not ready to say this is at the top of the list.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

I want to emphasize a point a few users have either mentioned explicitly or just suggested. Modern is in a complete state of metagame flux right now. There's all kinds of zany stuff across MTGO and it's a true wild west. We have Jund Dinosaurs, UR Rhinos/Living End/Balance, Soulherder variants, Twiddle Storm, Symmetry Mill, and a million Stoneblade takes. Many of the old tiered decks are also still viable (Tron, UW, Jund, Hardened Scales, Burn, Humans, Urza, etc.) and even some Looting decks are still finding traction (Dredge, Prowess). Tier 2 decks have seen new edges like Field of the Dead in Amulet, FoN in Merfolk, Scale Up in Infect, etc. I'm not saying any of this is surprising, as many of us knew this would happen when both Hogaak and Looting opened everything up. I'm emphasizing this because it means it is virtually impossible to predict where all the chips are going to fall when the metagame starts to stabilize. It took years for Modern to crystalize towards the Looting metagame of early 2019, and now there are much less obviously powerful pillars and significantly more new cards that feel suddenly (re)introduced into Modern.

Given this, be extremely skeptical of strong claims about Modern. Anyone who says Modern is anything other than "evolving/changing/etc." is misleading you and/or misleading themselves. It is difficult to predict metagame trends in stable metagames with very few changes from month to month. I remember my 2015 data-driven metagame analysis had a roughly 70% accuracy rate on overall metagame trends from month to month, only moderately better than a coin toss and with intensive metagame tracking behind that. AND that was in a relatively stable format without as many sudden upheavals. Anyone who tries to sell any metagame predictions without extensive evidence to support those predictions is selling a bill of goods. Please keep this in mind as you go out in the world and Internet, where you will invariably encounter hot takes and overstated opinions that are wildly disproportionate to the available evidence. Beware of that certainty.

If I had to pick a deck for this weekend and wanted to try to next-level the metagame, I'd test a bunch of proactive graveyard decks and take the best one. I suspect GY hate will be lower than usual, which could put decks like Storm and Dredge in strong positions. I also don't want to get bogged down in the SFM grindfest when there's a very good probability you've picked a sub-optimal SFM shell; most people will necessarily pick a sub-optimal shell because she's so new. Finally, I wouldn't want to play big mana too much because the Level 0 of most uncertain metagames is aggressive decks. After Twin got banned, Burn, Affinity, and Infect were the top PT decks alongside Eldrazi. Big mana plays right into that Level 0. I'll also say you can't get too clever with next-leveling the metagame, or you get lost in unfounded guesses.
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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Are you really living if you aren't fetching up an Elbrus? That 1 mana equip on an evasive body is GASSSSS.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/1860/3xYAmb.png

haha, nice one there. I never thought of that. :grin:

well, don't have any SFM anymore because I cashed in on them. :dizzy:
probably won't be too competitive, but will certainly try this interaction for the fun of it when I get the chance to buy SFM again.
ktkenshinx wrote:
1 year ago
I want to emphasize a point a few users have either mentioned explicitly or just suggested. Modern is in a complete state of metagame flux right now. There's all kinds of zany stuff across MTGO and it's a true wild west. We have Jund Dinosaurs,
Jund dinosaurs? that's interesting. I have to go look for that one. :)
I suspect GY hate will be lower than usual, which could put decks like Storm and Dredge in strong positions. I also don't want to get bogged down in the SFM grindfest when there's a very good probability you've picked a sub-optimal SFM shell; most people will necessarily pick a sub-optimal shell because she's so new. Finally, I wouldn't want to play big mana too much because the Level 0 of most uncertain metagames is aggressive decks. After Twin got banned, Burn, Affinity, and Infect were the top PT decks alongside Eldrazi. Big mana plays right into that Level 0. I'll also say you can't get too clever with next-leveling the metagame, or you get lost in unfounded guesses.
referring to bolded part. Don't know about the other people in my playgroup. But as for my decks... currently in the process of cleaning up sideboards and some main right now. For example, the remorseful clerics in the main of my uw can finally be replaced with something else. In my bg delirium deck, can now remove two of the three maindeck nihil spellbomb and replace those with something else.. There is a comfortable feeling that it's no longer mandatory to stuff 6-7 gy removal like icing on a cake on all my decks.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

To bring the conversation away from BS claims and predictions.

I feel like regarding SFM decks, this statement from Seth Manfield is very applicable in building and playing (both with and against) a SFM deck. Also, sweet gameplay video http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/article.a ... =8-30-2019
Slotting Stoneforge Mystic requires thinking about deck building in a completely different way. Stoneforge is a win condition, a source of card advantage and a two-drop rolled into one. It also requires about six slots in your deck. I think the wrong approach is to just cut six cards from your deck to make room for Stoneforge Mystic and two equipment. The question to think about is: what cards can you surround Stoneforge Mystic with to make it shine? There is a very real danger of making a deck too clunky.
VS this
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
This above statement right here showcases a lack of fundamental understanding in how a 6 card package works in modern.
Unlike twin, its just 5-6 cards, hence not a big deal.
This pulls deckbuilding into 2 different directions and poses a strong question to players building a SFM deck since myself and some other posters have pointed out way before the unban happened. It's more likely to be a 8-10 card package rather than a 6 card package.

This would likely be the main deck building challenge for SFM players in discovering the 'best' SFM strategy.
1) Is SFM a build around card where you surround her with cards that can bring out the best of SFM?
Or
2) Is SFM best as a 6-card value package?

It's still very possible for it to go either or both ways depending on what rises and falls in this new meta.

Either way, very excited to see what goes down in this weekend's SCG Modern Open.

Edit:

Checking in at SCG round 4 - Coverage has been sweet, lots of variety so far. A bunch of different decks with SFM like Bant Midrange, UW Control, GW Eldrazi.

Although I have to say it felt bad watching T3feri completely destroying Jund's ability to interact.

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
Although I have to say it felt bad watching T3feri completely destroying Jund's ability to interact.[/b]
The card is an absolute abomination to not only Modern, but Magic in general. It is awful design and promotes awful gameplay. Unfortunately, cards don't get banned for creating terrible and obnoxious games.

His true strength is reflected in the $50 MTGO price tag jump. Cutting off your opponent from responding to anything you do is incredibly powerful.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
Although I have to say it felt bad watching T3feri completely destroying Jund's ability to interact.[/b]
The card is an absolute abomination to not only Modern, but Magic in general. It is awful design and promotes awful gameplay. Unfortunately, cards don't get banned for creating terrible and obnoxious games.

His true strength is reflected in the $50 MTGO price tag jump. Cutting off your opponent from responding to anything you do is incredibly powerful.
He also counters the cascade ability of Bloodbraid. The best PW's in Modern right now are Wrenn, Teferi, Time Reveler, Karn the Creator and Narset.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

A mod can just delete my post if wrong thread for this. Not sure where to post it. :dizzy:

Saw this in our facebook group. Possible Sfm reprint in Eldraine?
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 1 year ago

cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
Although I have to say it felt bad watching T3feri completely destroying Jund's ability to interact.[/b]
The card is an absolute abomination to not only Modern, but Magic in general. It is awful design and promotes awful gameplay. Unfortunately, cards don't get banned for creating terrible and obnoxious games.

His true strength is reflected in the $50 MTGO price tag jump. Cutting off your opponent from responding to anything you do is incredibly powerful.
I agreed with you before and I am now seeing it in a post Hogaak/Looting world. I saw it last night at FNM, when I could not get rid of a T3feri permanently and my opponent's Celestial Colonnade took me from high teens to 0 while I had 4 Path to Exile in hand. I was probably losing that game anyway, but it was quite the feeling.

On another note, T3feris were being bought for $12 at the Magic Fest and is probably a card to look for getting to the $20s (in paper of course) fairly soon. I saw the card and also Force of Negation for that matter all over my LGS last night. The oddest decks were playing both as well. I think the way people look at the card is that it is 3 mana, draw a card, which isn't super bad in this slower meta when the static ability and the ability to tick up can just DEbilitate opponents.
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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
A mod can just delete my post if wrong thread for this. Not sure where to post it. :dizzy:

Saw this in our facebook group. Possible Sfm reprint in Eldraine?
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69099936_10220094487730873_4163042711168876544_n.jpg
Doesn't look like a Kor to me, so I doubt it.
Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

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Post by Albegas » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
A mod can just delete my post if wrong thread for this. Not sure where to post it. :dizzy:

Saw this in our facebook group. Possible Sfm reprint in Eldraine?
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69099936_10220094487730873_4163042711168876544_n.jpg
Considering that Kor's been exclusive to Zendikar and Dominaria, it just seems unlikely that we'd see a reprint. Not only that, I'm pretty sure set slots are pretermined long before unban decisions. Jace's unban and reprint was likely a fluke resulting from his popularity in Legacy and not some plan to line up a reprint with an unban

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Post by Arkmer » 1 year ago

I also have seen a decent amount of T3feri and FoN over the past few days. Been trying to play anything except them in the control side of the house, but I honestly can't imagine playing any kind of counters without him, FoN, and some Veto. While they easily allow creatures through, instant speed verdicts are hard to dodge.

My only recommendations are Abrupt Decay, Chandra, and Stormbreath Dragon. Probably better ones out there, but that's what I got so far, and none of those are even great answers either. So unless you're in a board position to immediately swing into T3feri, good luck?

I'm interested to hear if anyone is having a ton of success against the combination. I really don't think this is a UW control only thing as I've already seen it in more than a few Bant Flicker lists
I've boxed my cards up for long term storage.

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Post by Lord Seth » 1 year ago

I went to a tournament today and got put up against Neoform. In *both* games, they won on their first turn.

I've never played against the deck before. Is this typical or was this just an absurdly rare occurrence? Because I've never played a game in Modern before where my opponent literally won the game on the first turn, let alone twice in a row. I've been the victim of a few turn 2 kills in my many years of playing this format, but never turn 1, let alone twice in the same match. If this was anything but magical Christmas land I have some major concerns about whether the deck should be legal.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

Best answer against Teferi is Aether Vial.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 1 year ago

I have come to the conclusion that SFM plays a different role in Modern than it does in Legacy. In Legacy its a win condition you try to protect or just to generate CA with brainstorm. In Modern its a must-answer that trades 2 for 1. Its not easy to protect SFM in Modern therefore you are playing the attrition game. SFM creates CA by trading 2 for 1 and that is how you try to win the game. It also means the rest of the deck needs to adapt. I see a lot of GW SFM decks and I think that is a big mistake. Hierarchs, Birds, Aether Vials, (Giver of Runes) are all horrible topdecks therefore losing you the attrition war. You need to play cards alongside SFM that also create value on their own like Voice of Resurgence, Snapcaster etc.

However a problem I see in the attrition war is the resource trade. SFM+Batterskull = 4 mana and can be countered by a lot of 1 mana spells. Trading 4 resources for 1 is often not a good deal. It means after 4 turns you haven't developed yet but you set your opponent back a card. Thus you want to play cheap removal for early interaction so you don't get stampeded and you want bigger spells to further develop your lead after 4 turns. I think the best shell is probably Esper with Monastery Mentor. That deck is designed to play the attrition war, has a lot of interaction, removal and discard and naturally plays into SFM strengths and gameplan.

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Post by Wraithpk » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Lord Seth , it has a 13% turn 1 win rate as per finalnub, according to his real life data (not goldfish). And a higher turn 2 and 3.
But, is straight up gets wrecked by fon, spell pierce, veto and discard is pretty good against it. Also lowering their life total quickly can be devastating.
Its one of the awful decks to play against, if you are not on blue or black.

Deck is fine, not gonna be banned, but certainly better than cheerios.
Those numbers look pretty bannable to me... Remember, the threshold of what they usually ban a deck for is somewhere in the early 20s for total pre-turn 4 kills. I guess it's going to depend on how popular the deck becomes now that the Looting decks are gone. If it becomes popular and it's winning before turn 4 like 30% of the time, it's gonna get banned.
iTaLenTZ wrote:
1 year ago

However a problem I see in the attrition war is the resource trade. SFM+Batterskull = 4 mana and can be countered by a lot of 1 mana spells. Trading 4 resources for 1 is often not a good deal. It means after 4 turns you haven't developed yet but you set your opponent back a card. Thus you want to play cheap removal for early interaction so you don't get stampeded and you want bigger spells to further develop your lead after 4 turns. I think the best shell is probably Esper with Monastery Mentor. That deck is designed to play the attrition war, has a lot of interaction, removal and discard and naturally plays into SFM strengths and gameplan.
From what I've seen, SFM and Mentor are a little awkward together. SFM wants more creatures in your deck to carry swords, but Mentor wants lots of noncreature spells.
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ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

Lord Seth wrote:
1 year ago
I went to a tournament today and got put up against Neoform. In *both* games, they won on their first turn.

I've never played against the deck before. Is this typical or was this just an absurdly rare occurrence? Because I've never played a game in Modern before where my opponent literally won the game on the first turn, let alone twice in a row. I've been the victim of a few turn 2 kills in my many years of playing this format, but never turn 1, let alone twice in the same match. If this was anything but magical Christmas land I have some major concerns about whether the deck should be legal.
gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Lord Seth , it has a 13% turn 1 win rate as per finalnub, according to his real life data (not goldfish). And a higher turn 2 and 3.
But, is straight up gets wrecked by fon, spell pierce, veto and discard is pretty good against it. Also lowering their life total quickly can be devastating.
Its one of the awful decks to play against, if you are not on blue or black.

Deck is fine, not gonna be banned, but certainly better than cheerios.
Wraithpk wrote:
1 year ago
Those numbers look pretty bannable to me... Remember, the threshold of what they usually ban a deck for is somewhere in the early 20s for total pre-turn 4 kills. I guess it's going to depend on how popular the deck becomes now that the Looting decks are gone. If it becomes popular and it's winning before turn 4 like 30% of the time, it's gonna get banned.
We should not extrapolate deck bannability from single player samples. I'm not saying Zhang/finalnub is falsifying numbers or playing non-representative games. They seem totally honest and upfront about the deck and their performance. Rather, I don't think we can extrapolate a really experienced player's performance to the deck's overall performance across a metagame. When I played a ton of Cheeri0s after Sram entered Modern, I tracked my own MTGO performance with the deck. In an approximately 200 game sample of matches, I had a 78.1% GWP, winning on T2 in 10% of games and T3 in 33% of games. Obviously, Cheeri0s never got banned and never amounted to much of anything. That's because decks aren't banned based on the performance of single pilots with that deck (although Nass + KCI was close...). They are banned for aggregate experiences across the metagame. Until other players start adopting Neobrand and replicating finalnub's results, the deck isn't bannable. If they replicate those results (i.e. prove it's top-tier and consistently winning pre-T4), then it's in trouble.
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Post by Lord Seth » 1 year ago

gkourou wrote:
1 year ago
Lord Seth , it has a 13% turn 1 win rate as per finalnub, according to his real life data (not goldfish). And a higher turn 2 and 3.
But, is straight up gets wrecked by fon, spell pierce, veto and discard is pretty good against it. Also lowering their life total quickly can be devastating.
Its one of the awful decks to play against, if you are not on blue or black.

Deck is fine, not gonna be banned, but certainly better than cheerios.
If those numbers are correct, then that's an extremely strong argument for banning it. A 13% win rate on the first turn is far too high. Amulet Bloom got banned for less than that. I'm not even sure if Hypergenesis, which is banned, could win that quickly that consistently.
Last edited by Lord Seth 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 1 year ago

SCG Dallas Day 2 breakdown from http://www.starcitygames.com/events/cov ... kdown.html

Burn – 21

Whirza – 17

Mono-Green Tron – 15

TitanShift – 10

Jund – 8

Humans – 7

Azorius Control – 6

Grixis Death's Shadow – 4

Mono-Red Prowess – 4

Infect – 4

Amulet Titan – 4

Bant Stoneblade – 4

Eldrazi Tron – 3

Gifts Storm – 3

Abzan Company – 3

Hardened+Scales – 2

Bant Eldrazi – 2

Bant Spirits – 2

Azorius Spirits – 2

Devoted Devastation – 2

Bant Soulherder – 1

Goblins – 1

Gruul Eldrazi – 1

Selesnya Eldrazi – 1

Ad+Nauseam – 1

Mardu Death's Shadow – 1

Rakdos Midrange – 1

Charge Tron – 1

Merfolk – 1

Mono-White Stoneblade – 1

Dimir Mill – 1

Jeskai Control – 1

Orzhov Smallpox – 1

As+Foretold – 1

Twiddle Storm – 1

Esper Control – 1

Gruul Land Destruction – 1

Sultai Reclamation – 1

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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
SCG Dallas Day 2 breakdown from http://www.starcitygames.com/events/cov ... kdown.html
Spoiler
Show
Burn – 21

Whirza – 17

Mono-Green Tron – 15

TitanShift – 10

Jund – 8

Humans – 7

Azorius Control – 6

Grixis Death's Shadow – 4

Mono-Red Prowess – 4

Infect – 4

Amulet Titan – 4

Bant Stoneblade – 4

Eldrazi Tron – 3

Gifts Storm – 3

Abzan Company – 3

Hardened+Scales – 2

Bant Eldrazi – 2

Bant Spirits – 2

Azorius Spirits – 2

Devoted Devastation – 2

Bant Soulherder – 1

Goblins – 1

Gruul Eldrazi – 1

Selesnya Eldrazi – 1

Ad+Nauseam – 1

Mardu Death's Shadow – 1

Rakdos Midrange – 1

Charge Tron – 1

Merfolk – 1

Mono-White Stoneblade – 1

Dimir Mill – 1

Jeskai Control – 1

Orzhov Smallpox – 1

As+Foretold – 1

Twiddle Storm – 1

Esper Control – 1

Gruul Land Destruction – 1

Sultai Reclamation – 1
Stoneforge Mystic having just about the impact I thought it would. And wow, that's a lot of burn!

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Post by ktkenshinx » 1 year ago

True-Name Nemesis wrote:
1 year ago
SCG Dallas Day 2 breakdown from http://www.starcitygames.com/events/cov ... kdown.html

Burn – 21
cfusionpm wrote:
1 year ago
Stoneforge Mystic having just about the impact I thought it would. And wow, that's a lot of burn!
Re: Burn
This is the second time we've seen Burn take off after an upheaval ban decision. The first was after Twin/Bloom when Burn was a most-played deck (along with Infect and Affinity) at PT Oath. We also saw Burn take off after Khans got released, but that was due to new cards, not an upheaval situation. This supports the theory, admittedly with a small but relevant sample, that Burn tends to be a top-played deck in uncertain periods of Modern. This will likely come as no surprise to people who follow the format, but it's great to have data to support theories that sound good on paper. Burn is likely to fall off as the weeks/months pass. Week 1 versions of new formats are almost always wrong, with people not realizing the best decks or how to build their decks period.

Re: SFM
It is still way too early to make any assessment of SFM's impact, positive or negative. The "hot take" and "called it" discourse of contemporary Magic/Modern is really starting to drive me crazy. The correct reaction to a dramatically altered format is not to make bold predictions and hop on board the buzz/upvote/karma trains. It's to make measured forecasts on knowable time frames. Predicting a Week 1 metagame deviating towards Burn and Tron is both a plausible theory based on sound methods AND it helps us pick our Week 1 decks/sideboards. Predicting a Month N impact of a card that has been legal for a single week is pure guesswork. It's just playing the lottery and betting on the most probable outcome of "New card in Modern won't have a huge impact because no single new card tends to have a huge impact on a massive, powerful, non-rotating format." That's neither particularly interesting nor helpful to our understanding of the format's evolution.
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Post by cfusionpm » 1 year ago

What is Stoneforge Mystic ever doing that is better and more powerful than what the other decks above it are doing? Whirza, Tron, Titan, Jund, etc are all just doing better things. And UW Control is showing us that it's definitely not better with Stoneforge; something that many of us who have played UW in the past have said.

You're right that we don't have a solid picture of Stoneforge, but when your absolute best-case-scenario top end is a Batterskull or mana-hungry Sword, what is that doing to make the decks playing it better?

I have been jamming her relentlessly, not because I think it's strong or in any way the best thing to be doing, but because its shiny and new. The more I play with it, the more mediocre it feels. Watching it be aggressively medium in this event just solidifies that opinion. Those saying it is busted or amazing are likely ending up on the positive side of variance that would make any deck feel good.

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