[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Wraithpk
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Post by Wraithpk » 2 years ago

pierreb wrote:
2 years ago
I find it depressing and ironic that so many people who have whined for years about twin rejoice at seeing multiple decks get a swift kick in the nuts. Worse, if UW and jund do get to be the top decks, then humans, infect, merfolks, spirits all get worse. Death's shadow probably also gets worse.

ISTM that these forums are filled with old players who merely pins for the good old days and are happy with UW and jund being the top decks and most decks created since being worse.

So much for deck diversity.

Pretty much all decks I own are getting hit. I never built UW nor jund due to the high price of entry. Now. if I believe what I'm reading, most of my decks are sub par:
  • humans
  • spirits
  • infect
  • eldrazi
  • CoCo
  • UR phoenix
  • Grixis death shadow
So, I guess I'm left with storm and burn?
First of all, there's a big difference between Twin and Faithless Looting. Twin was a deck that promoted fair gameplay. Looting was mostly used by unfair decks looking to abuse graveyard synergies. I don't see how you can deny that graveyard decks had become a problem in Modern, even before Hogaak. It's easy to forget, but people were already starting to maindeck Rest in Peace and Surgical Extraction almost a year ago. Banning Looting makes those decks a little slower and less consistent, which in turn lessens the pressure to load like 7 pieces of graveyard hate into your sideboard and mulligan aggressively to find one. Now we can go back to a more healthy balance.

As for your decks, almost all of them actually get better now that the Looting decks are taken down a peg. The only one you listed that really got hurt was UR Phoenix, and I suspect it's still a deck, but it'll probably morph to be a little more interactive and lean on Titi and Aria of Flame now that the Phoenix plan is less consistent. In particular, GDS seems like a really good place to be with everyone playing SFM. GDS can slow back down for the first time in years and play more of a grindy game with multiple maindeck K Commands.
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
I am definitely throwing darts at a board. My personal matches, jamming SFM in various UW shells have all been relatively lackluster and underwhelming. It felt cool to do neat new things, but none of what I was doing ever felt super powerful or commamding. It can definitely be a piece of some kind of midrange deck, but it's pretty terrible as a control finisher.
Which is what a lot of us predicted years ago. If you want to play a hard control deck, you're better off sticking with the planeswalker package. SFM is nice in a more creature-oriented midrange build, though.
Albegas wrote:
2 years ago
FWIW, we do have Invisible Stalker for hard to kill evasion to stick equipment on, but it does lack TNN's ability to block well and makes for a way worse clock without equipment
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Modern
ubr Grixis Shadow ubr
uwg Bant Stoneblade uwg
gbr Jund gbr

Pioneer
urIzzet Phoenixur
rMono-Red Aggror
uwAzorius Controluw

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bg Meren of Clan Nel Toth bg

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Re: metagame prediction uncertainty
I think a lot of the bad/disproportionate metagame predictions come from a misunderstanding of how likely a deck is to face another deck in a given event. Rob L and I have discussed this in the past regarding Hogaak. In summary, you are significantly less likely to face a deck in the average event than most people believe. This leads people to both making bad deck selections for fear of a certain matchup, and leads to bad predictions because they assume a certain deck will suppress another deck. Assume there's a deck at a pretty dominant (outside of the Hogaak era) 12% of the format. Now assume you're playing a 5 round MTGO League. Here are your chances of playing that deck exactly N number of times:

5 Round Event
0 times: 53%
1 time: 34%
2 times: 9.8%
3 times: 1.3%
4 times: .1%
5 times: <.1%

The majority of players will, all other factors being equal, probably never play against that deck. Of course, this changes if a deck is more/less represented at increasing/decreasing performance levels. So if Deck A was more likely to be in the winning 3-0 bracket than the hanging-in-there 1-2 bracket, you'd be more likely to face it if you were doing better. But absent that totally unknowable information, it's not likely you play a given 12% deck at a 5 round event. Dropping the deck's share to the more typical 8% metagame range means you have a 66% chance to play that deck zero times,

GP make this more interesting because the Day 1 distribution is typically different than the Day 2 distribution because some decks have better conversion rates. That said, this generally does not increase a deck's share by too much barring Hogaak situations. Here are your odds of encountering that deck in the average 15 round GP:

15 Round Event
0 times; 14.7%
1 time: 30%
2 times: 29%
3 times: 16.9%
4 times: 6.9%
5 times: 2.1%
6+ times: .5%

Here, you're actually likely to play this 12% deck 0-2 times in the event. But this is where the human ability to understand and operationalize statistics gets us in trouble. We're just as likely to face the deck 0 times as 3 times, and if we calculate the confidence interval of how many times we are likely to face that deck (or how many players across the event are likely to face that deck N times), it's quite broad and hard for us to interpret. But the end result is the same: you are generally less likely to play a certain deck than you think, even if the initial 12% metagame percentage appears high.

This means you should not be avoiding X/1s because you are afraid of W6, anymore than Tron players avoid Tron because they are worried about the Burn/Infect/Storm/UW Control/etc. matchup. The final metagame standings rarely reflect this kind of isolated, rhetorical fear we see on forums or in articles. So if you're making predictions based on decks that are likely to be in the 10%ish range of the metagame, don't overstate their impact. Large, complex metagames tend to be self-regulating barring significant spikes of dominance or chronic, intractable problems that persist for years.
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Post by drmarkb » 2 years ago

I make no claim as to what the meta will be, but I suspect that the Eldrazi/Taxes hatebear list might get better- those arbiters, Thought-Knots and Scullers hurt the SFM package whereever it is run, and Giver of runes (which, incidentally has gone up price wise here post announcement) can make things pro whatever. I mean what we are talking about here is a 4/4 lifelink Black critter t3, or a sword like W/P or sofi T4/5.
Last edited by drmarkb 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

The MTGO meta is like 90%+ Stoneforge and anti-stoneforge decks right now lol.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

It's the new hotness, give it a few weeks and the excite may start to normalize.

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Ya, no different than when we all jammed Jace and BBE into literally any deck running the right colours.
UR Control UR

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cfusionpm
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
Ya, no different than when we all jammed Jace and BBE into literally any deck running the right colours.
And just as similarly, the more I play with SFM, the more and more mediocre she feels. She's super easy to answer and her payoffs are very meh. Much like Jace, she will need TONS of support, I think. Or find a shell that is already good and complements her gamelan.

Oh well. I'm personally burned out on her already after just a few days. Going to throw together some awful 4x4x4 Snap, Cryptic, K-command deck next.

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Yep, that's where I'm going. I wasnt going to touch SFM, as I know its just not what I want in life. K-Command though? That card was fun. I think you have to go down under 4 Cryptic though, but if the meta slows? Do it.
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Bearscape
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Post by Bearscape » 2 years ago

I mean, was anyone expecting SFM to set the meta on fire? That's why it being banned was such a meme, the ceiling of SFM isn't even that impressive in Modern.

In a solid midrange shell, SFM is a nice card advantage engine. It was never going to be the core of a deck.

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 2 years ago

As predicted, right now is Midrange grindfest all the way. And I'm killing people with efficient Grixis Shadow beatings. I love playing Seize-Snap decks in this metagame.

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Post by Arkmer » 2 years ago

My LGS didn't want to deal with people complaining so they went with "Nothing is banned yet, but SFM is legal" last night. No Looting or SFM decks showed up anyway.

I also saw a bunch of midrange grinders last night. Bant Flicker the was popular choice among them. No Tron, but that'll change; I think we all know that.

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Post by drmarkb » 2 years ago

Arkmer wrote:
2 years ago
The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm in Legacy is considered as one of the most powerful two cmc creatures
SFM's power is directly related to the power of the equipment she tutors for and Legacy has Jitte. That's a pretty significant tool to have access to. I don't play a ton of Legacy myself, but the friends that do have been fairly upfront about "first person to connect with Jitte basically wins"; to me that sort of lends itself to SFM being a notable creature by association.
I do play a lot of Legacy, what you say about Jitte needs a huge qualifier - I mean huge- Jitte wins in the D n T mirror, sometimes Eldrazi (small) v D n T, and, if you can find it, Merfolk. Jitte can sometimes do enough with Thalia against dredge,but it is dire vs Dragon stompy, gets munched in seconds vs Goblins, never does much against Maverick (though some Mavericks do run it themselves) or Nic Fit, and too slow vs Infect, Elves or other creature combo decks. Huge chunks of Legacy just cheat Grisselbrand, Emmy or combo off before Jitte does anything- think Storm variants, Elves, Infect, Bomberman, Depths, Helm decks, and the rest make combat irrelevant, either by controling the battlefield or just hiding behind Bridges. It can do work vs col good stuff and Delver decks. In d n t, sfm is a 4 of, but it has Port and Wasteland. Maverick, and in the old days Deadguy, run/ran a pair of sfm, maybe 3. It is a good card, but Legacy is not about swinging with a jitte, it is about Brainstorm and stopping Brainstorm.

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Post by The Grumpiest » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
Ya, no different than when we all jammed Jace and BBE into literally any deck running the right colours.
And just as similarly, the more I play with SFM, the more and more mediocre she feels. She's super easy to answer and her payoffs are very meh. Much like Jace, she will need TONS of support, I think. Or find a shell that is already good and complements her gamelan.

Oh well. I'm personally burned out on her already after just a few days. Going to throw together some awful 4x4x4 Snap, Cryptic, K-command deck next.
I have to say that I love playing infect right now. Oh wow, you Stoneforged in a 4/4 lifelinker? I have a 14/12 trample infect dude. Have fun dying at 24 life.

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

SFM suffers from diminishing returns. The first SFM is the best one because it fetches Batterskull. The second one is already mediocre because Swords just suck. They are too slow and require too much resources. The third and fourth SFM's are redundant. I would just play 1 SFM + 1 Batterskull or 2 SFM + 2 Batterskull or 2 SFM + 1 Batterskul + Sword. The problem is you don't want equipments stranded in your hand or swords 'stranded' on the battlefield doing nothing. In Modern the package can be strong but not strong enough to run 4 SFM or build a deck around it because too many decks just ignore it or have efficient answers.

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Post by SaberTooth » 2 years ago

I understand the banning of looting, even with my deck (red phoenix) banned. What i dont really understand is why this card is banned but you let stirrings (at the same power level as ponder and looting) and opal in modern, being core part of the format since their printing, keeping the status of tier 1 since forever, and having the same power level AND generating the same play patterns as looting (do you have hate? no? you lose)

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Ya, I hear you. The logic was that GY decks were super prominent before the ban. Hogaak and multiple flavors of pheonix were on top of the meta, and if they had only banned hogaak dredge would have resurged with pheonix decks staying teir 1. To down power all GY stategies was the idea. After this enabler FL ban precedent (like ponder, preordain & probe before) ancient stirrings and mox opal surly are being watched by WOTC for the day colorless or artifact decks become too dominant.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

The Grumpiest wrote:
2 years ago
I have to say that I love playing infect right now. Oh wow, you Stoneforged in a 4/4 lifelinker? I have a 14/12 trample infect dude. Have fun dying at 24 life.
I am curious about how Infect will do now. It's good for the deck that Gut Shot/Lava Dart.dec will be played less, due to the Faithless Looting ban. But I am unsure that Jund won't just rise up in numbers, Scales with Walking Ballista may rise in numbers (my friend just got 12-3 at GP Vegas), and Fatal Push may be played more due to Stoneforge Mystic in the meta.

It will be interesting to see how the deck does (even if it was the loss pushing me out of top 8 contention in Round 14 at the same GP; also lost to Grixis Urza in Round 15 though). I have to say that I wouldn't be sad to see Infect struggling, as it is one of those decks (aka THE deck) that keeps beating me.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

SaberTooth wrote:
2 years ago
I understand the banning of looting, even with my deck (red phoenix) banned. What i dont really understand is why this card is banned but you let stirrings (at the same power level as ponder and looting) and opal in modern, being core part of the format since their printing, keeping the status of tier 1 since forever, and having the same power level AND generating the same play patterns as looting (do you have hate? no? you lose)
Most of this last year were talks like "Why is Looting allowed when Preordain is banned?"

Ancient Stirring is living on borrowed time.

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Post by Zorakkiller » 2 years ago

hopefully in the next round of bannings they give us a unban. gsz, punishing fire or twin seem like the most likely candidates. it has been very refreshing to play modern since the update. plenty of back and forth games, fewer games end pre turn 4 and anecdotally I have seen more strategic diversity among decks. so far this update was s great first step in making modern great again

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Zorakkiller wrote:
2 years ago
hopefully in the next round of bannings they give us a unban. gsz, punishing fire or twin seem like the most likely candidates.
I'm not holding my breath. If it took them this long and this big of fanfare for an arguably-lame and underpowered card, "real" things like Twin are a ways off. Because remember, it doesn't have to make sense, as long as someone at WOTC feels it's too good.
it has been very refreshing to play modern since the update. plenty of back and forth games, fewer games end pre turn 4 and anecdotally I have seen more strategic diversity among decks. so far this update was s great first step in making modern great again
Definitely agree. It has been super fun. I don't know if its any good in a real meta, but in the wonky mess that is currently MTGO, this list has been super fun. The manabase is a bit iffy, and the sideboard is a filthy hot mess, but the main deck feels pretty good. I forgot how nice it was to jump a Geist with Elspeth. And the extra bodies/tax/protection are good for wearing swords and chump blocking. I have Feast & Famine and Sinew & Steel in the board as extra protection too. Has been great in this artificial influx of durdley, interactive midrangey decks. I hope this sticks around more than a short while.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Zorakkiller wrote:
2 years ago
hopefully in the next round of bannings they give us a unban. gsz, punishing fire or twin seem like the most likely candidates.
I'm not holding my breath. If it took them this long and this big of fanfare for an arguably-lame and underpowered card, "real" things like Twin are a ways off. Because remember, it doesn't have to make sense, as long as someone at WOTC feels it's too good.
I do definitely agree that it took nearly forever to unban Stoneforge Mystic, but honestly any time there is a big unban like this, it always is very refreshing and a sign of good things to come (hopefully) from WotC. They even banned Looting, which I DID NOT think they'd do, but it is definitely a good ban. If they don't ban Looting, those decks will continue to rule Modern and I feel that Wizards wants to print graveyard type cards in Standard that could break Looting even more (like they have already done).

I felt really badly for Wizards taking so long to unban the Mystic, but now I can definitely foresee an unbanning of Zenith and possibly Twin and a tiny chance for Preordain (probably not that one though). I don't see Punishing Fire coming off, even if Modern has gotten strong enough to handle it, just mainly because just the thought of it kills of small Aggro strategies. Whether it actually does so or not remains to be seen, but just the thought that it puts into Modern players' heads about whether small Aggro is safe to play or not kills this type of unban right now. For what it's worth, I'm definitely fine with any of the cards I just mentioned. I would have been all right if they left Looting, but unbanned those 3-4 cards to compete with Looting. Killing Looting for me stops me from using Unearth or Grishoalbrand (which I was already on Neobrand anyway).
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

I will gouge out my eyes the day Ancient Stirrings is banned..... My favourite decks are the colourless and artifact decks, I just went colourless because I didn't feel like paying that much for a playset of Mox Opal. So I sure as %$#% hope I don't lose either way hehe..... kill me

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm is a great unban and a very, very, very, very strong card that pushes the modern power level (having in mind that looting was banned). With looting free, it would be clunkier. Now, its ace!
What lists are you running that give you this feeling? What kind of meta are you playing in?

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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm is a great unban and a very, very, very, very strong card that pushes the modern power level (having in mind that looting was banned). With looting free, it would be clunkier. Now, its ace!
What lists are you running that give you this feeling? What kind of meta are you playing in?
interested to see a sample decklist as well.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 2 years ago

So far I've been liking the Bant Ice-Fang lists the most. There are a few variants going around and they all play quite differently.
From what I can remember, the sweetest one so far I've seen has been a CoCo list with

4x Hierarch
4x Giver of Runes
4x Hexdrinker
4x SFM
4x Ice-Fang Coatl
3x Ranger-captain of Eos
4x Spell Queller
3x Deputy of Detention

The package was
1x Batterskull
1x Sword of Fire and Ice
1x Sword of Feast and Famine

Won't say too much about how good it actually is but, it is a blast to play. Good threats, lots of interaction, tons of value and of course, like all sweet decks do, horrible tron matchup :laugh: .

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