[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by Jamoncito » 2 years ago

The bans have me excited to follow modern again as now we can see the actual impact of MH. Going to be an exciting year.

With that, something that I think should be mentioned is that Wizards' 'tone' in the banning article seems to suggest a more cavalier approach to bans/unbans, especially in the vintage language. I don't know if we can extrapolate this to all formats that they monitor, but I like that they're using bans to more closely shape formats (should that actually be the case going forward). This is especially true in older formats where things can get out of hand in a hurry. A playable format is and always will be more important than a permanent one.

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

As much as it would probably suck having your deck banned out every so often, I agree that bans to shape formats more is better approach rather than just dealing with problem cards

I'd even be fine with them putting splinter twin back in the format because the format should be ore adjusted to it

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Post by Jamoncito » 2 years ago

Getting a deck banned sucks for sure, but maybe if bannings weren't quite so rare people wouldn't be willing to put all of their eggs into a singular basket. This could perhaps quell some modern prices as sitting on super expensive cards because they're 'staples' would be a much riskier proposition.

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Post by Sojourner Dusk » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Theory: the reason wotc didn't show the packaging for premium throne of eldraine packs is that the art on the pack is a reprint. My theory is that Stone Forge Mystic is that reprint. It makes total sense flavorfully (and likely mechanically) since the set involves Arthurian legend. the card is likely fine fine for standard if the equipment is not over powered or the equip cost is not under costed.
The issue with this theory is that it would involve Kor being a major race on the plane, and they've previously only been seen on Dominaria and Zendikar. We're more likely to see Kithkin than Kor on Eldraine, given the fairy tale aspect, and I don't expect to see any Kithkin on Eldraine. I wouldn't mind new Kithkin, but that's off topic.

SFM has been unbanned. The test will be to see if she can stay legal longer that GGT did when it came off the list. War Karn's presence will limit SFM by freezing out equip costs, but Batterskull will be seeing play for a while. Nice that War Karn also keeps Batterskull from bouncing itself, or Spellskite from drawing fire.

Hmmm... I think I need to do some brewing.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
Modern's meta will evolve exactly as Legacy did after Wrenn. First everyone wants to play with the new toys so people jumped on Delver. Then people realized they can't beat Wrenn on an equal level playground so they play decks that completely ignore it, hence uninteractive decks. The best decks in Legacy are Red Stompy, Reanimator, TES/ANT, Show and Tell. All decks goldfish to play around Wrenn so best thing is to avoid playing Wrenn,
Oh for sure. Stoneforge is absolute trash of a card. But it's fun, new trash. It's the forbidden trash. You better believe I'm jamming that trash for A WHILE until the newness wears off and I remember that this card is super underpowered compared to the things other good decks are capable of.

Maybe it will find a good shell and be a staple? Maybe not. But if enough of us keep jamming these trash SFM decks, maybe one of them floats to the top and actually ends up being good!

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

I feel people are gonna be brewing with it for a bit until they can see exactly how good it is or if they can find the best deck for it. I remember back when they unbanned JTMS, people were trying that in literally EVERY deck that could support the double blue cost, I even saw people running it in Temur/4c scapeshift

so the TLDR is people wanna see how good it is for now

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

motleyslayer wrote:
2 years ago
I feel people are gonna be brewing with it for a bit until they can see exactly how good it is or if they can find the best deck for it. I remember back when they unbanned JTMS, people were trying that in literally EVERY deck that coulc support the double blue cost, I even saw people running it in Temur/4c scapeshift

so the TLDR is people wanna see how good it is for now
Felt super mediocre so far after about a dozen matches in the single match room with various UW builds (including one with Geist!). It felt very meh. Batterskull is kind of underwhelming and the Swords are super hit and miss. Not gonna stop me from continuing to jam though.

Update: Swords are still super mana-intensive and often not what I want to be spending my time on. Batterskull is aggressively mediocre. On the plus side, some random BW Tokens build might actually be good again. I even played with an Elspeth, Knight-Errant in an esper Lingering Souls build. It wasn't good, but it sure was fun.

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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

How do you guys see G/B or Sultai midrange being positioned in the coming meta? Think it could have a fighting chance?
I know Jund is stronger in the G/B/x variant, but I much prefer it straight G/B or sultai.

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Post by robertleva » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
Been playing with SFM a little bit. Card is very strong, and the uw control shell, looks disgustingly good. Wins vs humans, wins vs tron, now wins vs burn, does not have dredge, mono red phoenix, hollow one and all of those decks to be afraid of, meta becomes more focused, wins vs everything i tried out, wins vs eldrazi tron also. Didn't test whir, the data said its a dog, like 40-60, but sure you have room to add 2 rip + 2 stony now, problem solved.
One potential problem matchup, jund. I know this matchup in and out. Using a typical uw control list adding 4 sfm, 1 skull, 1 sofi, but also 2 spell snare and 3 purge in th side(cause now you have more space) i am finding out the jund matchup is close to even, especially post board, feels a little bit favoured.
A uwx shell is going to be the best deck going forward. That leaves modern at a spot where small creatures now have to face sfm, w6, plague engineer and other stuff. Seriously, a very bad time to run creatures and a very bad time to be a non sfm, non w6, non strirrings/opal deck.
Also leaves modern at a spot where you are going to see many slugfests like control vs jund, jund mirrors, control mirrors and uw vs tron kind of fights. Also whir vs everything. They just made modern a turn 5 format again at a single announcement!

I feel we are due to return to 2014; modern will be the least diverse you have seen it for the past 3 years(still kind of diverse) but I feel that it is going to be very enjoyable, interactive and fair with such a strong card like sfm.

Here is to it remaining legal for ever, but make no mistakes: SFM is crazy good!
I agree with how good SFM is in modern but I disagree that it will lead to less diversity. UW can be hated out easily if it becomes the boogeyman deck (spoiler alert: it wont). New strats will / have already emerged.
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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

motleyslayer wrote:
2 years ago
I feel people are gonna be brewing with it for a bit until they can see exactly how good it is or if they can find the best deck for it. I remember back when they unbanned JTMS, people were trying that in literally EVERY deck that could support the double blue cost, I even saw people running it in Temur/4c scapeshift

so the TLDR is people wanna see how good it is for now
Sfm in Legacy is considered as one of the most powerful two cmc creatures, along with Tarmogoyf, Tiago, and Bob.
Some good builds might appear on the next few weeks.

Would have tried to fit her in Mardu Pyro... but honestly, I have no more Sfm. :omg:
I sold them all into the hype. Will just re-buy when the price settles down a bit. :halo:
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Post by Arkmer » 2 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm in Legacy is considered as one of the most powerful two cmc creatures
SFM's power is directly related to the power of the equipment she tutors for and Legacy has Jitte. That's a pretty significant tool to have access to. I don't play a ton of Legacy myself, but the friends that do have been fairly upfront about "first person to connect with Jitte basically wins"; to me that sort of lends itself to SFM being a notable creature by association.

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Post by Ym1r » 2 years ago

Arkmer wrote:
2 years ago
The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm in Legacy is considered as one of the most powerful two cmc creatures
SFM's power is directly related to the power of the equipment she tutors for and Legacy has Jitte. That's a pretty significant tool to have access to. I don't play a ton of Legacy myself, but the friends that do have been fairly upfront about "first person to connect with Jitte basically wins"; to me that sort of lends itself to SFM being a notable creature by association.
Well, in part yes. This holds true for every tutor as well. Tutors are only as good as they cards they get. However, SFM has an extra ability attached to her, and that is to cheat the cards that she tutors in play. As such, yes, she is as good as the cards that she gets, but also makes said cards better, by allowing them to be cheated in game. Batterskull being cheated is extremely relevant in this case. If it wasn't for her cheating it in play, there is no way she would be played. For this reason, I don't think SFM is notable only by association, but because the card has powerful potential in itself, and it is made better through the cards she supports.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

gkourou wrote:
2 years ago
make no mistakes: SFM is crazy good!
I don't know if I would say that. Many fast decks still don't care about it, many decks can go over the top of it, and many decks can simply remove it by dealing with both the creature and the artifact. (also remember that Stony Silence turns off your own stuff too...!)

Swords cost 4 mana still (2 to put out, 2 to equip) and require a body. A lot of times I'm wanting to spend mana on things more immediately impactful. Batterskull is "just" a 4/4. Bonus things aside, sometimes a 4/4 is good enough, a lot of times it isn't. Happy to have more options though.

I definitely think the format is, and will be better. But it has little to do with our little Kor friend, and a lot to do with losing Faithless Looting.
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Post by pizzap » 2 years ago

Everybody and their grandmother is trying out SFM on MTGO. I am having so much fun with Shadow of Doubt right now! If no SFM is present you can also ruin someone's fetch, Summoner's Pact, Sylvan Scrying/Expedition Map, Whir of Invention etc etc. What deck doesn't tutor nowadays?

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Post by Arkmer » 2 years ago

Ym1r wrote:
2 years ago
Well, in part yes. This holds true for every tutor as well. Tutors are only as good as they cards they get. However, SFM has an extra ability attached to her, and that is to cheat the cards that she tutors in play. As such, yes, she is as good as the cards that she gets, but also makes said cards better, by allowing them to be cheated in game. Batterskull being cheated is extremely relevant in this case. If it wasn't for her cheating it in play, there is no way she would be played. For this reason, I don't think SFM is notable only by association, but because the card has powerful potential in itself, and it is made better through the cards she supports.
That's pretty fair, I just don't recall Batterskull being mentioned as part of the reason SFM is a big Legacy player (probably testament to my unfamiliarity with Legacy). You're right about the ability mattering, but I'm less certain a comparison to Legacy SFM is a good avenue to extrapolate from.
pizzap wrote:
2 years ago
Everybody and their grandmother is trying out SFM on MTGO. I am having so much fun with Shadow of Doubt right now! If no SFM is present you can also ruin someone's fetch, Summoner's Pact, Sylvan Scrying/Expedition Map, Whir of Invention etc etc. What deck doesn't tutor nowadays?
Shhhh, lol, secret Ashiok tech seems like a good approach as well for a little while.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Arkmer wrote:
2 years ago
pizzap wrote:
2 years ago
Everybody and their grandmother is trying out SFM on MTGO. I am having so much fun with Shadow of Doubt right now! If no SFM is present you can also ruin someone's fetch, Summoner's Pact, Sylvan Scrying/Expedition Map, Whir of Invention etc etc. What deck doesn't tutor nowadays?
Shhhh, lol, secret Ashiok tech seems like a good approach as well for a little while.
I haven't seen Shadows yet, but I've been seeing Leonin Arbiters for days.

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Post by pierreb » 2 years ago

I find it depressing and ironic that so many people who have whined for years about twin rejoice at seeing multiple decks get a swift kick in the nuts. Worse, if UW and jund do get to be the top decks, then humans, infect, merfolks, spirits all get worse. Death's shadow probably also gets worse.

ISTM that these forums are filled with old players who merely pins for the good old days and are happy with UW and jund being the top decks and most decks created since being worse.

So much for deck diversity.

Pretty much all decks I own are getting hit. I never built UW nor jund due to the high price of entry. Now. if I believe what I'm reading, most of my decks are sub par:
  • humans
  • spirits
  • infect
  • eldrazi
  • CoCo
  • UR phoenix
  • Grixis death shadow
So, I guess I'm left with storm and burn?

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Jeez, there are a lot of metagame predictions going on here that are just too certain relative to the amount of evidence to support them. This is true on other sites as well. I've seen people say with equal levels of confidence that SFM will lead to more diverse/interactive Modern and that SFM will lead to decks just trying to go around/under it plus push out decks that can't compete, leading to less diverse/interactive Modern. These kinds of extreme predictions rarely pan out in Modern except over long periods of time when many new cards are gradually introduced and the format gradually tips one way. That's because most extreme predictions generally don't come true in most areas of complex analysis and dynamics. It's just easier and more exciting to make them than the measured alternative, especially in the hot take era of Twitter, Reddit, upvotes, clicks, and all the social/financial incentives that come with these mediums. I don't even want to make a prediction yet because I acknowledge I haven't seen these new decks perform, so I'd be working with unhelpfully limited information. Be extremely suspicious of people making bold, extreme, hot claims in this new format. They are either not acknowledging the limits of their knowledge or have ulterior motives behind their claims.

I'll also encourage people to explore the real matchup win percentages we have from the summer and extrapolate from there. For example, Jund is good against UW Control and bad against Tron. UW Control is good against Tron and was weak to Hogaak and Dredge. Whirza was a great deck but artifact hate was at an all time low. These are the kinds of concrete numbers to start with and build from there to maybe, just maybe, predict level 0 or 1 of the metagame. People predicting level 2+ are lying to us and themselves even if they are ultimately right; throw enough darts at a board and you'll hit the bullseye eventually.
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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

I am definitely throwing darts at a board. My personal matches, jamming SFM in various UW shells have all been relatively lackluster and underwhelming. It felt cool to do neat new things, but none of what I was doing ever felt super powerful or commamding. It can definitely be a piece of some kind of midrange deck, but it's pretty terrible as a control finisher. And as I mentioned earlier, I think SFMs success (if it really has any after hype dies down) will be directly attributed to the removal of Looting more than anything else.

Anecdotal side note, I played against a BTL Scapeshift list and it felt like an awful matchup that I had no business winning. The only reason I won was because they cast a game-winning BTL when I had T3feri out, and that interaction caused them to outright concede the match.

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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

Ym1r wrote:
2 years ago
Arkmer wrote:
2 years ago
The Fluff wrote:
2 years ago
Sfm in Legacy is considered as one of the most powerful two cmc creatures
SFM's power is directly related to the power of the equipment she tutors for and Legacy has Jitte. That's a pretty significant tool to have access to. I don't play a ton of Legacy myself, but the friends that do have been fairly upfront about "first person to connect with Jitte basically wins"; to me that sort of lends itself to SFM being a notable creature by association.
Well, in part yes. This holds true for every tutor as well. Tutors are only as good as they cards they get. However, SFM has an extra ability attached to her, and that is to cheat the cards that she tutors in play. As such, yes, she is as good as the cards that she gets, but also makes said cards better, by allowing them to be cheated in game. Batterskull being cheated is extremely relevant in this case. If it wasn't for her cheating it in play, there is no way she would be played. For this reason, I don't think SFM is notable only by association, but because the card has powerful potential in itself, and it is made better through the cards she supports.
agreed, the put into play ability is relevant. bypass counterspells, and also put the cards into play for cheaper than if you paid the actual casting cost of the sword. One of my friends tried making a Trophy Mage deck last year.. did not really work out because the mage only tutored the swords, it cannot cheat them into play like sfm did, and the mage itself also cost one more mana to cast than sfm, making it slower.
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Post by True-Name Nemesis » 2 years ago

Lmao, what is this. A prediction arms race? We're less than 2 days into a new format and there are so many blanket statements flying around talking about what's going to be good and what's not in the new format.

2 days!

Come on now, any statement about power level, tiers and matchup percentages after 2 days can and should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:
Arkmer wrote:
2 years ago
Ym1r wrote:
2 years ago
Well, in part yes. This holds true for every tutor as well. Tutors are only as good as they cards they get. However, SFM has an extra ability attached to her, and that is to cheat the cards that she tutors in play. As such, yes, she is as good as the cards that she gets, but also makes said cards better, by allowing them to be cheated in game. Batterskull being cheated is extremely relevant in this case. If it wasn't for her cheating it in play, there is no way she would be played. For this reason, I don't think SFM is notable only by association, but because the card has powerful potential in itself, and it is made better through the cards she supports.
That's pretty fair, I just don't recall Batterskull being mentioned as part of the reason SFM is a big Legacy player (probably testament to my unfamiliarity with Legacy). You're right about the ability mattering, but I'm less certain a comparison to Legacy SFM is a good avenue to extrapolate from.
I've been playing UWx Blade in Legacy since the start of the year and I can say with confidence that Brainstorm is the 2nd biggest reason why SFM is good in Legacy after Jitte. Brainstorm allows you to recycle stranded equipment into new cards even if they deal with the SFM. It's card advantage that can actually be utilised.

In Modern, people have said that killing SFM still leaves you up a card, but that doesn't really mean anything if the card is stranded in hand serving no purpose until you have access to a brainstorm effect or enough mana to cast it. So yeah technically you're up a card but it's not bringing any benefit.

In Legacy, this extra 'unusable' card can actually be recycled into more relevant cards via brainstorm + fetch. While SFM is a good card in Legacy, this is the main reason why the best SFM deck in Legacy by far is a blue deck.

Now in Modern, the power levels of different colours are much closer, therefore I think it's going to be much harder for any colour combination to stake a claim as the best SFM deck.

Personally, I feel that a BWx base has the best chance. Mainly because proactive discard has been the best form of disruption through Modern's 'good' times.
pierreb wrote:
2 years ago
I find it depressing and ironic that so many people who have whined for years about twin rejoice at seeing multiple decks get a swift kick in the nuts. Worse, if UW and jund do get to be the top decks, then humans, infect, merfolks, spirits all get worse. Death's shadow probably also gets worse.

ISTM that these forums are filled with old players who merely pins for the good old days and are happy with UW and jund being the top decks and most decks created since being worse.

So much for deck diversity.

Pretty much all decks I own are getting hit. I never built UW nor jund due to the high price of entry. Now. if I believe what I'm reading, most of my decks are sub par:
  • humans
  • spirits
  • infect
  • eldrazi
  • CoCo
  • UR phoenix
  • Grixis death shadow
So, I guess I'm left with storm and burn?
How do you come to that conclusion? In your list, I only have experience with Humans and Spirits and i certainly don't feel like they got worse.
I mean, Jund preys on creature decks in general so nothing really has changed on that end.

From a Spirits perspective, I don't really care about a batterskull if I have a bunch of hexproof fliers. And spirits is in a MUCH better position now that the graveyard decks that stomp spirits into the ground have been nerfed.

From a Humans perspective, some cards get worse and some cards get better. Thalia probably gets marginally worse since T2 SFM is a thing, You can still snag the equipment with a Kitesail Freebooter. Reflector Mage and Deputy of Detention get better. Hostage Taker becomes a relevant card. It does not seem like that big of a deal if UW is removing cards like sweepers, cryptic commands and planeswalkers to fit in a stoneforge package.

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Post by BloodyRabbit » 2 years ago

By the way, since someone mentioned it: in Legacy Stoneforge is a very good card mostly because you play it, the opponent kills it, you Brainstorm away the Batterskull doing +1. Here we only have Jace to do the same job.

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Post by kddncn » 2 years ago

Other things that also make SFM good in Legacy: TNN as a hard to answer/unblockable threat to generate advantage off of Jitte/Sword of X and Y. I haven't played with SFM in modern, I think it'll find a decent shell, but it lacks contextually many of the things that makes her as good as she is in Legacy, and even then Blade is almost the quintessential 50/50 deck in the format.
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Post by BloodyRabbit » 2 years ago

Another good point of Stoneblade in Modern, though, is that most likely the format won't be so hostile to Shadow decks anymore.

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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

kddncn wrote:
2 years ago
Other things that also make SFM good in Legacy: TNN as a hard to answer/unblockable threat to generate advantage off of Jitte/Sword of X and Y. I haven't played with SFM in modern, I think it'll find a decent shell, but it lacks contextually many of the things that makes her as good as she is in Legacy, and even then Blade is almost the quintessential 50/50 deck in the format.
FWIW, we do have Invisible Stalker for hard to kill evasion to stick equipment on, but it does lack TNN's ability to block well and makes for a way worse clock without equipment

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