[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

Ym1r wrote:
2 years ago
This, I think is really one of the strongest developments here. Besides Splinter Twin, there aren't really any other strong contenders for unban atm. I wonder how the discussion here evolve. I hope it won't be another 100 pages of Splinter Twin banter.
There's no point to it. We just went from SFM is too good because of UW, to 'SFM is unbanned'.

People (not you in particular) need to get it through their heads.

Wizards does what it wants, when it wants, and the reasons are irrelevant.

20/20 Hindsight justification can ALWAYS be provided/generated/spun out of the air.

So yeah, people should 100% stop talking about Twin, because it doesnt matter, and apologists will just say 'well its still banned' while the other said says 'yeah but!'

Lets focus instead of what for the first time in over a year is an actual fresh landscape.
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
In my prep period right now. So many scattered thoughts. I'm sad not to see Twin, but holy cow, Looting banned is a GIFT from above! Stoneforge is whatever, I'll brew bad blue decks with it's just like I have been for years. Worried about Eldrazi and Whirza, but Looting ban absolutely opens up possibilities of hitting Stirrings, Opal, and other "safe" things.... Lots to digest. Will take a solid look more later on in the day.
Fair fears, but while the jury's out for me about what E-Tron will do in the coming months, I personally think Opal will be safe for a while. UrzaSword was definitely proving itself to be a hidden gem, but I think banning Looting will inadvertently help curb UrzaSword. Slowing down fast GY decks and killing Hogaak will give traditional Tron decks more room to breathe, which means more little Karns for UrzaSword to fight through. Slowing down GY based decks will also open up SB slots enough to deal with Opal decks. I don't think GY decks will die out completely (I think Dredge in particular will still survive and continue to be a good deck) but opening up 2 SB slots for better artifact hate like Stony Silence or Shattering Spree will (hopefully) help Opal decks in check

Of course I could just be trying to rationalize selling my SFMs and promo Batterskull to pay for about half of what I need to build UrzaSword

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Post by Amalek0 » 2 years ago

Welp. I guess I'm glad I only went ONE foil Arclight phoenix deep, and own zero other copies?

Actually, I guess I technically own a set of OG foil faithless lootings that probably won't ever get sleeved up again, since I dislike partial foiling of decks and LED's are only available in nonfoil.

So by my estimation, I'm gonna be out $45 on a phoenix, $40 on a set of lootings, and maybe $500 for getting the stoneblad package cards in foil? Not bad for a B&R announcement.

Now if only they would unban preordain so I can use that set of stupid-expensive foils in a format other than pauper, life would be great.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
In my prep period right now. So many scattered thoughts. I'm sad not to see Twin, but holy cow, Looting banned is a GIFT from above! Stoneforge is whatever, I'll brew bad blue decks with it's just like I have been for years. Worried about Eldrazi and Whirza, but Looting ban absolutely opens up possibilities of hitting Stirrings, Opal, and other "safe" things.... Lots to digest. Will take a solid look more later on in the day.
On the one hand, I fully agree that Stirrings is on the table in the future. Maybe Opal too. On the other hand, people need to be really careful about praising this style of banlist management. We're going to see a true race to the bottom if Wizards isn't careful. First Looting, then Stirrings (decks that lost to Looting decks), then Jund/UW (decks that lost to Stirrings decks), etc. We will also see more and more people calling for bans than ever before. This could lead to substantial uncertainty and fear as the format continues to go on. It's fine now for many people because it's aimed at "boogie man" decks, but when it comes around to the "fair" decks, it's going to get scary.
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Post by Wraithpk » 2 years ago

Pretty much just Twin, and probably GSZ would be safe too. I've always said that Looting and Stirrings being legal while Preordain and Ponder were banned didn't make sense, so they should either ban the first two or unban the last two. Looks like we know which direction they're taking, so Preordain is probably never getting unbanned. Also, as others have said, Stirrings is on borrowed time, as it's the last super powerful 1 mana cantrip left in the format.
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
In my prep period right now. So many scattered thoughts. I'm sad not to see Twin, but holy cow, Looting banned is a GIFT from above! Stoneforge is whatever, I'll brew bad blue decks with it's just like I have been for years. Worried about Eldrazi and Whirza, but Looting ban absolutely opens up possibilities of hitting Stirrings, Opal, and other "safe" things.... Lots to digest. Will take a solid look more later on in the day.
On the one hand, I fully agree that Stirrings is on the table in the future. Maybe Opal too. On the other hand, people need to be really careful about praising this style of banlist management. We're going to see a true race to the bottom if Wizards isn't careful. First Looting, then Stirrings (decks that lost to Looting decks), then Jund/UW (decks that lost to Stirrings decks), etc. We will also see more and more people calling for bans than ever before. This could lead to substantial uncertainty and fear as the format continues to go on. It's fine now for many people because it's aimed at "boogie man" decks, but when it comes around to the "fair" decks, it's going to get scary.
To a point, I agree, but this (looting) was truly format defining. Modern WAS a GY format for over a year. It was time to go.
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Post by Wraithpk » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
It's fine now for many people because it's aimed at "boogie man" decks, but when it comes around to the "fair" decks, it's going to get scary.
I hope they don't. It's my theory that formats are the healthiest when the fair decks are stronger than the unfair decks, so hopefully if we ever reach that point in Modern they don't make the mistake of banning the fair decks too, because we'll end up right back at an unfair dominated format again.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 2 years ago

I have to say I am completely behind all of the changes today. I know its just going to shift the meta to somewhere else and its not likely to slow things down much but all around approval from me.

Now I just need them to hit neoform, infect, and tron and maybe I will be halfway happy with the meta.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

SFM: GREAT UNBAN
Hogaak: great ban, we all saw that coming
Looting: wow they just did that.

I'm not complaining, I understand why they did It, but I use alot of those and this feels like a kick in the deck. Maybe we all needed a kick in the deck, but it don't feel good at the time. One day we will all look back and laugh at how good that card was.

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Post by ISBPathfinder » 2 years ago

I totally am on board for the Faithless Looting ban, I just feel like there are so many other things just as degenerate. It will shift the modern format but I really don't see this change slowing anything down just changing the faces of the decks we see. I was actually hoping to get another ban or two beyond faithless if they were going to pull the trigger on it.
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Post by Depian » 2 years ago

Wraithpk wrote:
2 years ago
Pretty much just Twin, and probably GSZ would be safe too. I've always said that Looting and Stirrings being legal while Preordain and Ponder were banned didn't make sense, so they should either ban the first two or unban the last two. Looks like we know which direction they're taking, so Preordain is probably never getting unbanned. Also, as others have said, Stirrings is on borrowed time, as it's the last super powerful 1 mana cantrip left in the format.
I would add Punishing Fire to that lists and that's about it

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Question: this was a triple ban on the original hogvine deck, eldrazi didn't get a triple ban, has there been another deck to get this many bans?

I know most of the original storm deck is now banned but each of those cards were due to different decks. Splinter twin is kind of the same way, first it was ponder and Preordain, years later it was dig through time, later it was twin itself and I'm not sure that all counts. Affinity had 5 artifact lands banned at the same time, at the origin of the format. Are there any others I'm missing? Caw-blade with JTMS, sfm, P&P?

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Post by Amalek0 » 2 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
Question: this was a triple ban on the original hogvine deck, eldrazi didn't get a triple ban, has there been another deck to get this many bans?

I know most of the original storm deck is now banned but each of those cards were due to different decks. Splinter twin is kind of the same way, first it was ponder and Preordain, years later it was dig through time, later it was twin itself and I'm not sure that all counts. Affinity had 5 artifact lands banned at the same time, at the origin of the format. Are there any others I'm missing? Caw-blade with JTMS, sfm, P&P?
Arguably infect--they lost blazing shoal, ponder, preordain, and gitaxian probe, so they got hit accross three different ban announcements.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

ISBPathfinder wrote:
2 years ago
I totally am on board for the Faithless Looting ban, I just feel like there are so many other things just as degenerate. It will shift the modern format but I really don't see this change slowing anything down just changing the faces of the decks we see. I was actually hoping to get another ban or two beyond faithless if they were going to pull the trigger on it.
It will be much easier for fair decks to police unfair decks now that they don't have so many axes to cover. UW is already positive against Tron before it has to dedicate so many slots to GY hate. Jund and UW will rein in decks like Infect and the format should be much slower. We can't go down the road of just banning or calling for bans on every so-called unpleasant Modern deck. Nonrotating formats can and should have fast decks, combo decks, GY decks, big mana decks, etc. We can't all just play midrange grinds or the format is not living up to its diversity promise.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
It will be much easier for fair decks to police unfair decks now that they don't have so many axes to cover. UW is already positive against Tron before it has to dedicate so many slots to GY hate. Jund and UW will rein in decks like Infect and the format should be much slower. We can't go down the road of just banning or calling for bans on every so-called unpleasant Modern deck. Nonrotating formats can and should have fast decks, combo decks, GY decks, big mana decks, etc. We can't all just play midrange grinds or the format is not living up to its diversity promise.
Assuming control decks can step up to combat it I am fine. I was more grouchy that in the previous meta that the control decks couldn't really keep up with the diversity of decks. I suppose I should give it time and see what happens.
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Post by Amalek0 » 2 years ago

[mention]ktkenshinx[/mention] I think it's probably important to point out that this ban isn't really actually slowing the format down by much. Hogaak on turn two was still generally killing on turn three through no interaction, and turn 4 otherwise.

Infect will still happily turn 2 you. Burn will still happily kill you on turn three in a large percentage of games. Gifts-storm is still pretty much 100% to kill you on turn three if you don't kill their turn 2 cost reducer.

Heck, even the devoted druid combo is still going to do its thing on turn three unless you interact.

What we've done is remove the necessity of interacting with specifically the graveyard before turn three. I would firmly expect that to be replaced with "interact with creatures before turn 3" or "interact with artifacts before turn 3", which admittedly have better general tools available.

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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

Banning Faithless Looting is a mistake and I don't even play looting decks.

I'm worried all the "BAN THIS CARD!!!" people will direct their gaze at Tron cards now.........

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Post by Wolffman » 2 years ago

KTK is right, by banning looting there is suddenly a lot less pressure on control decks to fight the graveyard. This enables control decks to tune towards a more narrow meta-game. Suddenly we can add additional artifact hate, creature removal, and counter-spells to fight the other decks that were already floating around underneath the looting pile at the top. As a control player this is a very good thing, we always want a narrow meta to effectively choose which answers will best answer the popular decks of the format.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Banning Faithless Looting is a mistake and I don't even play looting decks.

I'm worried all the "BAN THIS CARD!!!" people will direct their gaze at Tron cards now.........
I wouldn't say it was a mistake. Faithless Looting is inarguably better than at least 4 cards on the current ban list. It was just surprising that they decided to shake up the meta so much.

As for Stoneforge Mystic, I hope that the timing is not just too late for many who have HATED, yes HATED Modern for so long.
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Post by Amalek0 » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Banning Faithless Looting is a mistake and I don't even play looting decks.

I'm worried all the "BAN THIS CARD!!!" people will direct their gaze at Tron cards now.........
I wouldn't say it was a mistake. Faithless Looting is inarguably better than at least 4 cards on the current ban list. It was just surprising that they decided to shake up the meta so much.

As for Stoneforge Mystic, I hope that the timing is not just too late for many who have HATED, yes HATED Modern for so long.
I think people need to be really careful in assuming that a stoneblade packaged build WILL emerge as a contender.

Stoneblade in legacy operates on the back of ponder, brainstorm, and occasionally preordain.

The Caw-blade deck of standard past still had PREORDAIN.

I believe it's asking a lot to assume that the deck will be competitive with the collection of all of the fast linear archetypes of modern.

I will note that this isn't going to stop me from sleeving up all of the legal cards from the last caw-blade deck I played in standard and showing up to modern with it later this week.

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Post by mikej » 2 years ago

Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Banning Faithless Looting is a mistake and I don't even play looting decks.

I'm worried all the "BAN THIS CARD!!!" people will direct their gaze at Tron cards now.........
Ban Tron?

Are you threatening me with a good time?

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

I just want to take a second to point out WOTC specifically said in this B&R they talked about unbanning bridge from below but decided not to at this time. I'm glad to hear that. I agree, this is not the right time to unban It, but that statement is very clear to me it will be unbanned at somepoint.

Is anyone still afraid of bridge from below without hogaak or faithless looting?

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Amalek0 wrote:
2 years ago
ktkenshinx I think it's probably important to point out that this ban isn't really actually slowing the format down by much. Hogaak on turn two was still generally killing on turn three through no interaction, and turn 4 otherwise.

Infect will still happily turn 2 you. Burn will still happily kill you on turn three in a large percentage of games. Gifts-storm is still pretty much 100% to kill you on turn three if you don't kill their turn 2 cost reducer.

Heck, even the devoted druid combo is still going to do its thing on turn three unless you interact.

What we've done is remove the necessity of interacting with specifically the graveyard before turn three. I would firmly expect that to be replaced with "interact with creatures before turn 3" or "interact with artifacts before turn 3", which admittedly have better general tools available.
Looting's ban slows down the format in a number of ways. It does so directly by weakening fast GY decks like Dredge, Mono R Prowess, H1, Izzet Phoenix, Grishoalbrand, any lingering Vine decks, etc. Those decks being weaker and slower necessarily slows down the entire format, even if fast non-FL decks still exist. More importantly, FL ban indirectly slows the format by giving police decks fewer axes to police. Jund and UW Control really struggled to regulate fast GY decks, fast non GY decks, and big mana decks without giving up percentage points elsewhere. Now that pressure is reduced and these decks can regulate the unaffected fast decks better.

Remember: Modern's speed distribution in 2018 was virtually identical to its 2015 speed distribution. An FL ban likely equalizes that difference, a net positive for Modern.
mikej wrote:
2 years ago
Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Banning Faithless Looting is a mistake and I don't even play looting decks.

I'm worried all the "BAN THIS CARD!!!" people will direct their gaze at Tron cards now.........
Ban Tron?

Are you threatening me with a good time?
1. Odds of a Tron ban would be very low. Odds of a Stirrings ban specifically, however, are much higher now than ever before. Expect the most ban mania we've ever seen directed at Stirrings in the wake of Looting's demise.

2. I can't caution people enough about this. Don't get too excited for cascading bans on alleged unfair decks. When those decks are gone and we're left with super dominant midrange/control strategies with no predators, the ban hammer will swing at those too. We do not want a race to the bottom effect which will hurt multiple decks and destroy format confidence.
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Post by RxPhantom » 2 years ago

I'm a lowly Model scrub. I don't follow the metagame super closely, but I have to admit I'm sad about the Faithless Looting ban. This is only because I have a silly home-brew that needs it. I'll concede that it's probably the best thing for the format since so many people who are more knowledgeable than myself are in favor of it.
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Post by Arkmer » 2 years ago

I really think the worry can be put on hold for awhile. It took them quite awhile to take this position on Looting and it seems like it took an unbalancing as powerful as Hogaak to push them to do it. Given that literally no other deck is putting up any numbers that matter right now, I think we can chill on worrying about something being banned in the next 6 months. Talk about it? Sure, but actual panic over losing your deck should be an all time low right now (unless you literally just lost it) as we just had a massive dose of it and I doubt WotC is looking around for more targets given their rational for Looting being a dominating card for the past year.

Should Tron be banned? Probably not. Can a case be made? Likely only at the community level and certainly not at the more actionable WotC level.

If we want to stretch into more bans (for some reason), I think there are a few things in line before Tron "needs" to take a hit and I think the "Tron issue" (there isn't a Tron issue) can be solved with some printings instead of bannings.

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