[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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idSurge
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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
I feel like we are all waiting for the Hogaak ban. The format is pretty stagnant until then and not a real reflection of the meta. My LCS cancelled Modern FNM's until the B&R announcement because almost nobody was attending.
Which is exactly where a lot of us where before Spark/Horizons. Good year...
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

Ugh. I thought there was a reason for last FNM being 15 players. In fact, our FNM has had smaller FNMs in the past 2 months than WNM. I was really curious about that. I'd say on average, WNM was 24 players and FNM was 22. :(
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

idSurge wrote:
2 years ago
iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
I feel like we are all waiting for the Hogaak ban. The format is pretty stagnant until then and not a real reflection of the meta. My LCS cancelled Modern FNM's until the B&R announcement because almost nobody was attending.
Which is exactly where a lot of us where before Spark/Horizons. Good year...
True. Dredge/Phoenix go back to regular broken and we go back to waiting for the Faithless Loothing ban. I haven't played Modern in 6 months now which is really sad. The amounts of times Modern is in such a degenerate and broken state is unacceptable. I am seriously considering selling my collection since 2/3 of the time I can't play. Eldrazi Winter, Hogaak Summer, Phoenix Autumn....what is next?

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
Ugh. I thought there was a reason for last FNM being 15 players. In fact, our FNM has had smaller FNMs in the past 2 months than WNM. I was really curious about that. I'd say on average, WNM was 24 players and FNM was 22. :(
We've had a decent number of people, but the problem is the seemingly 50/50 split between the spikiest of spikes, all playing "winner's meta" decks, and the random-brew pile-of-cards players. It's almost impossible to tune for and extremely frustrating when you get the "wrong" matchups. Plus, if you lose your first match? Good luck the rest of the night!

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Post by idSurge » 2 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
True. Dredge/Phoenix go back to regular broken and we go back to waiting for the Faithless Loothing ban. I haven't played Modern in 6 months now which is really sad. The amounts of times Modern is in such a degenerate and broken state is unacceptable. I am seriously considering selling my collection since 2/3 of the time I can't play. Eldrazi Winter, Hogaak Summer, Phoenix Autumn....what is next?
Ahem.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
Ugh. I thought there was a reason for last FNM being 15 players. In fact, our FNM has had smaller FNMs in the past 2 months than WNM. I was really curious about that. I'd say on average, WNM was 24 players and FNM was 22. :(
We've had a decent number of people, but the problem is the seemingly 50/50 split between the spikiest of spikes, all playing "winner's meta" decks, and the random-brew pile-of-cards players. It's almost impossible to tune for and extremely frustrating when you get the "wrong" matchups. Plus, if you lose your first match? Good luck the rest of the night!
Yep. I faced Mill in Round 1 of the MCQ. I ended up facing 0 Hogaak, the only deck I had play tested for the past 2 weeks. :(
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Ok, now that we've decided to call this period of time "the summer of hogs" I'm going to another MCQ in SC next week and I'm mulling which version to play. Do most of us agree the 3 color version of hogaak is better than the 4 color version or is that unsettled?

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
Ok, now that we've decided to call this period of time "the summer of hogs" I'm going to another MCQ in SC next week and I'm mulling which version to play. Do most of us agree the 3 color version of hogaak is better than the 4 color version or is that unsettled?
Disclaimer: this isn't going to be much help, lol.

I have only played the non Crab, non Dredge version (but it does have 2 Thug and 1 Darkblast main) and I consider this to be the best version. Maybe I should actually test out the others? Or the short cut is asking friends. I'm gonna do that.

P.S. - I like the name! I saw Hog Vine for the deck when it first came out and I latched onto "Hog" in the name, which I feel is appropriate because it hogs Day 2, top 8, etc. every spot it can.
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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

Ym1r wrote:
2 years ago
I don't think the reason they are not banning him is financial. On the contrary, low GP attendance and bad press would hurt them more financially, than banning Hogaak. Without a statement, it's unclear as to why they choose to not emergency ban. I am sure the banning announcement will clear things up in that front.
whoa.. I forgot prices of many other MH1 cards have already risen enough in the secondary market, so banning Hogaak won't affect booster pack sales much.

Just have to wait for them to explain things on the ban announcement.
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
Ok, now that we've decided to call this period of time "the summer of hogs" I'm going to another MCQ in SC next week and I'm mulling which version to play. Do most of us agree the 3 color version of hogaak is better than the 4 color version or is that unsettled?
Disclaimer: this isn't going to be much help, lol.

I have only played the non Crab, non Dredge version (but it does have 2 Thug and 1 Darkblast main) and I consider this to be the best version. Maybe I should actually test out the others? Or the short cut is asking friends. I'm gonna do that.

P.S. - I like the name! I saw Hog Vine for the deck when it first came out and I latched onto "Hog" in the name, which I feel is appropriate because it hogs Day 2, top 8, etc. every spot it can.
I agree, I think the three color version is the best. I keep putting crab in and then taking it out again. Crab is great turn one, but close to useless any other time IMO. Also 4 color mana bites you sometimes. I don't think lotleth troll is good enough in the flex spot, leyline or assassin's trophy is probably better.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
2 years ago
I agree, I think the three color version is the best. I keep putting crab in and then taking it out again. Crab is great turn one, but close to useless any other time IMO. Also 4 color mana bites you sometimes. I don't think lotleth troll is good enough in the flex spot, leyline or assassin's trophy is probably better.
I haven't used Lol Troll, but the people that have think it's slightly underwhelming. They think there has to be a better option, namely the 2 you mentioned.
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Post by Bearscape » 2 years ago

Although I'm of the opinion they should be much looser and quicker with bans and unbans, I do like the decision to NOT have an emergency ban, Sticking to the schedule as much as possible lets people know when to expect changes and prepare accordingly. I've seen GP Vegas named as a reason to ban Hogaak right now, but on the flip side if I was preparing for GP Vegas and suddenly the metagame gets set on fire out of nowhere I'd be pretty cross.

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Post by Mapccu » 2 years ago

So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

Mapccu wrote:
2 years ago
So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.
Play a pile of cards you like and don't worry too much about winning. It will do wonders for your psyche and overall emotional well-being.

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Post by Ym1r » 2 years ago

Mapccu wrote:
2 years ago
So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.
Well, Chalice is pretty good against other decks as well. Against any Death's Shadow variant, against Bogles (I tried the MU both with and without Chalices and my win ratio sky rocketed with chalices), it is good to have against UW control, and really any control variant. Chalice is an overall robust card that compensates for the lack of color in the deck. You can, of course play the deck without them, focus on a more high-end approach and the "Tron" aspect of the deck, but really, it will feel much different when you do have chalices. For me it was a completely different experience with and without them in the deck.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 2 years ago

The reason why it seems I am the only one serum eldrazi player without chalice. People seems to overestimate its power or forget to much downsides of chalice. I use relics instead and played last week 8:2 in a 460 player tournament. Last big with 110 player it was 5:1:1. Play what you want mapccu

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

Mapccu wrote:
2 years ago
So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.
E-Tron Chalice is in a weird position. On the one hand, it's virtually gospel you use this card in those decks. I can't think of a single E-Tron finish at a major event that didn't have a Chalice playset. We also know Chalice on 1 and/or 2 shuts off a ton of Modern decks, including a lot of random Tier 2 or lower stuff that just can't deal with this card effectively in G1. Those kind of whammy haymakers tend to be very strong in Modern, putting your deck in the role of "posing the question" and forcing opponents to "have the answer." All of this points to Chalice being indispensable to the E-Tron strategy.

That said, I personally see reasons why Chalice isn't as integral to the deck as many pilots make it out to be. The Plans A and B of Tron/Temple + Eldrazi smash can be plenty proactive on its own. Chalice even has a few issues in practice. For one, it's often a weak topdeck in the middle to late game, and a terrible topdeck if you're behind. It also often prohibits you from playing a card I think can sometimes be better: Relic of Progenitus. Against GY decks, Relic is obviously strong. Against decks that only partially use the graveyard (e.g. Snapcaster decks), it's either good against that side plan, or just a quick cycle. When it's dead, it's still just 2 to draw a card, which is a pretty good fail mode on a specialized hate card for a colorless deck. I'll also add E-Tron can't perform the most broken Chalice plays with SSG because SSG isn't really part of the E-Tron gameplan. That's one reason E-Stompy gets away with Chalice; T1 Chalice on the play can be gamebreaking. T2 Chalice on the draw might do nothing.

Ultimately, I'd lean towards Chalice being a really important part of E-Tron, but can see metagames where it's less valuable. If your local metagame isn't concentrated around decks relying on CMC 1-2 mana cards, maybe don't worry about Chalice. But if you're serious about E-Tron in broader metagames as Modern keeps evolving, you probably need it.
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
2 years ago
.
Ultimately, I'd lean towards Chalice being a really important part of E-Tron, but can see metagames where it's less valuable. If your local metagame isn't concentrated around decks relying on CMC 1-2 mana cards, maybe don't worry about Chalice. But if you're serious about E-Tron in broader metagames as Modern keeps evolving, you probably need it.
This is the biggest part right here. You have to analyze just how important Chalice of the Void is in your local metagame. What decks is it good against? Can you beat them without it? What's your game plan against X deck?

A million years ago during Lorwyn and Conflux, I used to occasionally copy deck lists mostly card for card because I could outplay opponents at FNM. In Modern currently, I don't feel that is very likely to do. You need to do every little thing to ensure that you have the best chance possible and you'll still get goldfished by 8 Whack when you have 4 Chalice of the Void MB and don't draw it or mull to 4 just to have it Smash to Smithereens, along with your chances to win also being in "Smithereens" at that point. :(

You honestly have to do every little edge, hope to get lucky in pairings, and hope to get lucky during game play while making the most optimal play at each and every step. Little edges add up, but don't expect them to magically get you an over 75% win rate.
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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Mapccu wrote:
2 years ago
So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.
Play a pile of cards you like and don't worry too much about winning. It will do wonders for your psyche and overall emotional well-being.
This actually did a lot for me. I tried forcing myself to play dredge last year but was miserable and didn't do well with the deck because it felt so weird to me. Then I realized how much I loved the fair decks again and everything just kind of clicked from there

somehow Saturday was my first time playing against Hogaak and geez is that deck brutal to play against. But I do need to say the mono red phoenix and prowess decks seem like the real deal

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Post by cfusionpm » 2 years ago

motleyslayer wrote:
2 years ago
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
Mapccu wrote:
2 years ago
So...question.

Scenario assumes hogaak eats a ban.

I'm really considering building eldrazi tron out and I'm not missing much, but I am missing chalices. How integral to the meta post hogaak do you think chalice is gonna be? I know it beats up on Phoenix/burn pretty well. Trying to think of replacements so I can have fun at modern night without getting my teeth kicked in by all the Phoenix AND hogaak players just playing Phoenix.
Play a pile of cards you like and don't worry too much about winning. It will do wonders for your psyche and overall emotional well-being.
This actually did a lot for me. I tried forcing myself to play dredge last year but was miserable and didn't do well with the deck because it felt so weird to me. Then I realized how much I loved the fair decks again and everything just kind of clicked from there

somehow Saturday was my first time playing against Hogaak and geez is that deck brutal to play against. But I do need to say the mono red phoenix and prowess decks seem like the real deal
Yeah, I tried to force myself to play UW, because it's "good" and "the best option if you want to play counterspells." I personally can't stand the play lines, I think it is incredibly dull and boring, especially with the new Planeswalker iterations, and I find myself wanting to play trashy bad decks with interesting play lines instead. Nothing felt as good as Thought Scour a Snap and a Mentor, Unearth the Snap, and then Snap-Unearth the Mentor.

And yeah, I've only played against Hogaak a few times. All of which were absolute dumpster fires, no matter what I was on. I just accept that I will lose this match, barring some catastrophic failure on their end, and move on with my life. Occasionally, like the first FNM following the ban, I will take a picture to tweet at Aaron Forsythe, like this one, which got mocked and ridiculed up and down this very forum, because I was claiming that Hogaak was still very, very, very good, even after the Bridge ban.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
You honestly have to do every little edge, hope to get lucky in pairings, and hope to get lucky during game play while making the most optimal play at each and every step. Little edges add up, but don't expect them to magically get you an over 75% win rate.
If this is a comment about Magic generally, I may or may not agree with you. As a game of variance, it does seem these edges are important across all formats.

But if this is a Modern-specific comment, I strongly object to it. As a reminder, the best 40 players in the world actually have a slightly higher Modern MWP over the last 2-3 years than they do in Standard. Either all the talk about Modern variance is not a real effect insofar as it adversely impacts performance, OR there is no difference between the effect of that variance between Standard and Modern. You are going to reach your "true" performance regardless of alleged format dynamics. I'll also note at the GP/PT level, the best players tend to be in the 65%-70% MWP, so players must make sure they have realistic expectations about their performance.
cfusionpm wrote:
2 years ago
And yeah, I've only played against Hogaak a few times. All of which were absolute dumpster fires, no matter what I was on. I just accept that I will lose this match, barring some catastrophic failure on their end, and move on with my life. Occasionally, like the first FNM following the ban, I will take a picture to tweet at Aaron Forsythe, like this one, which got mocked and ridiculed up and down this very forum, because I was claiming that Hogaak was still very, very, very good, even after the Bridge ban.
I believe I noted this in an earlier post, but if not, it's worth emphasizing. Dropping memey one-liner images about a negative game experience has never been, and will never be, a viable method of assessing format health or bannable cards. If that was the case, every format would have dozens of cards added to the banlist. Just because this produces a correct "hit" one in every N throws (where N is probably at least 20, the way it feels these days), doesn't make it a method we should take seriously. If you throw enough darts at the ban dart board, the average ban mania will eventually hit a truly bannable deck. I encourage you and anyone engaging in this behavior to stop it. Doubly so for the "I told you so" suggestion, which also doesn't validate the fundamentally erratic and inaccurate method. None of this elevates conversation in a format that is badly in need of critical, elevated conversation.

That said, I agree people shouldn't worry too much about the Hogaak matchup. It's probably banned in a few weeks anyway, and it's not worth testing against such a warping, broken deck.
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

If Hogaak gets banned, there will be at least 12 pages of fighting over what should be banned next.
If Hogaak doesn't get banned, there will be 12 pages of fighting over why it wasn't banned.

I understand it's a forum for discussing modern, but I mean, is Hogaak the only thing to talk about? It's been nothing but back and forth about Hogaak for 47 pages. How much more can we talk about this? I think everybody knows each other's stance on it, so can we please get on with something else? How do people have time to write so many replies about the same thing over and over???

Hogaak is part of modern, it may or may not get banned, but it's part of modern, so it's time to adjust if your local meta is infested with it and if you don't like it then play something or somewhere else until August 26th and see what's announced.

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Post by Bearscape » 2 years ago

Simto wrote:
2 years ago
is Hogaak the only thing to talk about?
Yes, honestly.

Hogaak has warped the meta so much there isn't really much else to talk about. Step 1, 2 and 3 of designing your deck atm should be "how do I beat Hogaak?" before considering anything else in the meta. I see no reason for the deck not to eat a ban on the 26th, and with that the discussion kind of stops, because after that point any meta call is pure speculation and can be completely invalid a month from now.

If you want we can talk about how, assuming Hogaak is the only thing that gets banned (and not also Looting like it should but won't), I think UR Phoenix will be the best deck in the format on the back of Aria of Flame, or how I think Whirza is a sleeper deck that is going to be a huge player in the meta, but it's all speculation.

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Post by Ym1r » 2 years ago

Bearscape wrote:
2 years ago
Simto wrote:
2 years ago
is Hogaak the only thing to talk about?
Yes, honestly.

Hogaak has warped the meta so much there isn't really much else to talk about. Step 1, 2 and 3 of designing your deck atm should be "how do I beat Hogaak?" before considering anything else in the meta. I see no reason for the deck not to eat a ban on the 26th, and with that the discussion kind of stops, because after that point any meta call is pure speculation and can be completely invalid a month from now.

If you want we can talk about how, assuming Hogaak is the only thing that gets banned (and not also Looting like it should but won't), I think UR Phoenix will be the best deck in the format on the back of Aria of Flame, or how I think Whirza is a sleeper deck that is going to be a huge player in the meta, but it's all speculation.
Yep, all of this is completely true, there is nothing else besides Hogaak if we are interested in the current meta and how the following GPs/Leagues will play out. If your local meta has no Hogaak, or just 1 Hogaak deck, then just play like it's banned already, don't get influenced by what is happening outside. But if you are planning to attend larger tournaments, well, Hogaak is the name of the (meta)game.

My plan is to avoid the next two weeks, I am super busy anyway, and start building some value decks that I've been really wanting to play, post-Hogaak that is, like Yellowhat's Soulherder deck, or 4c Snow control (grixis green basically). From now on, I think I want to play either UW control if I want to be competitive, or any Ice-Fang Coatl control/midrange deck.
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Post by LeoTzu » 2 years ago

Bearscape wrote:
2 years ago
Simto wrote:
2 years ago
is Hogaak the only thing to talk about?
Yes, honestly.

Hogaak has warped the meta so much there isn't really much else to talk about. Step 1, 2 and 3 of designing your deck atm should be "how do I beat Hogaak?" before considering anything else in the meta. I see no reason for the deck not to eat a ban on the 26th, and with that the discussion kind of stops, because after that point any meta call is pure speculation and can be completely invalid a month from now.

If you want we can talk about how, assuming Hogaak is the only thing that gets banned (and not also Looting like it should but won't), I think UR Phoenix will be the best deck in the format on the back of Aria of Flame, or how I think Whirza is a sleeper deck that is going to be a huge player in the meta, but it's all speculation.
Agree.

There's no question that Modern has some issues beyond Hogaak, but until that gets dealt with, we don't really have a clear view of how the format is doing. We haven't even gotten a chance to test other Horizons cards.

It's sort of like if you own a house that needs a bunch of repairs. If the roof is caving in, the leaky faucet in the basement and the broken cupboard door sort of need to wait until you take care of the larger problem.
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