[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

[Simto]

Weren't pro tours and grand prix supposed to come back? Any of them playing modern? A big tournament with focus on modern could give some spotlight to any problems.

[iTaLenTZ]

David posted two great articles on Modernnexus. The state of Modern 2022 and the ban watchlist. He basically confirms with data almost everything I have been feeling and saying about the format the past 6 months.

- According to him W6 is not a problem yet when it comes to diversity, however it is problematic that among others UW is adapting it. Future will tell if that is the correct step for the archetype. Turn 2 W6, Turn 3 T3feri might become a problem.
- The cost of Modern has gone up due to chase Mythics in Horizons. Because of covid and money the paper meta needs more time to catch up.
- Diversity in Modern is superficial. Most decks revolve around the same engines. Urza's Saga, Ragavan to name a few are omnipresent.
- Deckbuilding is very restricted because it is hard to justify not playing the OP Horizons cards.
- Modern has been the same 3-4 deck format for the past 2 years.
- He doesn't mention the evoke Elementals.
- Modern is very polarized due to Horizons. You either love Modern right now or hate Horizons Block.
- Ragavan in general and Hammertime are the biggest balance issues.
- He thinks Ragavan will see a ban. I agree, but other stuff should go as well.

It has hard to say what they will do

[Ed06288]

I read the David articles and appreciate his nuanced approach to the metagame. But I didn't like his write-up on Hammer time; how can he not mention Uzra's Saga as a problematic card? He even mentions that Hammer Time wins by stretching opponent's resources but then goes on to say Colossus Hammer needs banning. On top of that, he doesn't like Urza's Saga's high metagame share.

[Simto]

I doubt Wizards will make a lot of Modern Horizon bans because it will make people hesitant with buying cards in expensive booster packs, come the next premium/Horizon set, if they know they'll get banned anyway. Or maybe they don't care at all. It looks like all they care about is just printing a billion new releases hehe.

[iTaLenTZ]

After giving it some thought I don't think they will ban anything either. The data is clearly saying for over a year now that Ragavan is broken. Like who would have thought right. The problem is, if they ban Ragavan they must ban other stuff as well to level out the playing field. It will create a domino effect. Ragavan gone means W6 must go as well, which means Saga must go as well. Banning these 3 cards would cement MH2 as a complete failure. Imagine the outcry from all the people who spent a ton of money getting all these cards.

After those bannings BR Scam, Elementals and Cascade would take over. Is that meta really better than what we have now? More bannings would be needed. The obvious choice is Furry because it is in all 3 decks and it is keeping a lot of creature/tribe decks out of the format.

So if they do it right they would have to ban 4 cards at least which is basically admitting MH2 was a misstake. I don't see them do that. The costs outweigh the benefits. They will do nothing, just accepts the problems Modern is having and move on. Modern is not unplayable thus it is what it is. Apparently a lot of people are enjoying this meta. Next rotation is coming soon anyway. I bet they put some broken stuff in the LOTR set to shake up Modern once again. Get your wallets ready!

[motleyslayer]

I'm really enjoying modern as it it and I think I agree with waiting until the LOTR set to see what it has in it. WotC has probably already finished the set, so they know what they'll be printing. I mean we've gone this long with the broken MH2 stuff, so might as well just wait the 6 or so months to see what other stuff we'll be getting

[Sigmus]

Hello everyone,

I have been working on a project doing meta analysis for competitive Modern and am now ready to begin populating it with grading data. I am looking for any number of individuals (the more the better) who might be Interested in contributing to this project. Helpful participants would be able to provide grades for cards used against or with their favorite archetype and or other archetypes in the format.

It will mainly consist of supplying subjective grades on individual cards used in the current meta, but also might involve feedback on the grading criteria and other ideas on optimization.

The project is purely academic and is not being used for any commercial purposes. Anyone who agrees to regularly contribute will receive a breakdown of the analysis however often I end up updating it.

If you are interested, please comment below, message me directly, or email me at noahwagner77@gmail.com

Thanks,

[Ed06288]

The biggest offenders to me are Ragavan, Urza's Saga, and the free evoke on elementals. Other stuff is problematic too but less pressing at the moment.

It wouldn't surprise me if they don't ban anything, but my personal bias makes me lean towards another round of bannings similar to February's 2021 ban announcement.

If we make it to the end of February without any bans I will start to change my mind and consider buying playsets of Ragavan and the like.

[drmarkb]

II don't have an issue with elementals per se, T1 Fury and Solitude are not a problem, it is Grief t1 blinked is an issue, blinking in general is an issue.
More protection things in general would make removal elementals less of an issue.If there were more pro white, Solitude becomes less of an issue, more pro red Fury is neutered, more hexproof. People actively dislike these effects, they want to be able to kill opponent's stuff for 0 mana, and that is why Modern suffers. These cards are what people want, even if the resulting decks are not.
There will always be a tosser who thinks countering a spell is worse than killing it, always be someone who wants to play 40 1cc spells and thinks Chalice is unfair. Hell there will always be someone like me who wants to blow people's lands up and play decks that slowly win by reducing options to zero. Difference is, the guy (and it often is a guy) who gets all upset that you don't want to play 'my creature is bigger than yours' is the person they design for. Truth be told, they are probably OK with all elementals bar Grief (they hate discard), and they probably don't play Modern much. And they were the target for mh2.

Do Legacy players want Initiative or Chaos Defiler working not as intended in their format? No. But that won't stop them making another Initiative.

Judging by the way they handle bans, they will try to keep cards legal in at least one of Pioneer, Modern, Legacy, but with mh2 the former is no option. W6 and the monkey got the axe in Legacy, EI oddly did not as it was chopped in Pioneer. Oko went in Modern et al before Legacy. Legacy desperately needed another Delver ban and they didn't give it. I suspect Modern will not get a ban for months. When it does I cannot see it being w6, ragavan or anything expensive in mh2. They will hit lesser targets.

[iTaLenTZ]

You can't just ban Ragavan (or W6/Saga for that matter) alone. It would slow down the format so W6 and Saga would take over completely because they eat Ragavan's metashare. Ragavan might be keeping linear non-interactive decks like Tron out of the meta, but I fee they have fallen out of favor anyway compared to 4/5 goodstuff and Creativity. You have to ban the 3 new pillars of Modern (Ragavan, Saga and W6) at the same time and Furry.

These broken cards are simply the new era, the new pillars of Modern and every deck is just an iteration of the same engines. They just pushed these new pillars into the format. They won't ban them for money reasons primarily. What kind of precedent would they be setting. Consumer confidence would take a massive nosedive. These cards are played as playsets. We are talking about banning 700-800 dollar worth of cards. A lot of decks combine these cards. People would lose a ton of money, feel betrayed and scammed. First they print broken stuff, they let it stay legal for way too long fully knowing the data is showing they are broken, but when the cards go out of printrun they ban them. Financially 2022 has been a terrible year for Wizards. They simply can't afford it to ban their MH pillars and piss off the people who invested into this new era of Modern. They would lose any credibility they have left. Everyone would hesitate to buy anything remotely OP in fear it will get banned. Another pr-disaster. They are committed to MH2 now. It is too late to ban 4 flagships of the MH era. It is what it is.

Like really, if Wizards had integrity and game health was at first place they would have banned these cards 6 months after printing them at the very late. You don't need to be a genius to realize Ragavan and Saga are broken by design and wait 2 years to see 'if the meta can adept or find answers'.

[Simto]

I genuinely don't think Wizards cares about modern meta and stuff like that. As long as the money keeps on rolling nothing will happen. I'm sure there'd be more bans/unbans etc. if pro tours were big streaming events. There'd at least be more focus on it.
It seems like the company has zero passion for the game itself and purely exist to pump out a million new cards. It's rather tiresome and I haven't bought any new cards in a long time. Barely feel like playing the game anymore other than once in a while when my friends come around for card night.

[iTaLenTZ]

Maybe they will look for ways to nerf the top 3-4 decks without hitting MH cards to decrease the gap between tier 1 and the rest until LOTR drops.

- Ban Expressive Iteration (hits 4/5c, Creativity and UR)
- Ban Sigarda's Aid (only hits Hammertime)

These bans would merely serve as temporary band aid. The winrate of those decks would probably decrease a bit, but the fundamental problems of Horizons would persists. Ragavan will still steal games on its own by not being answered the first turn, Wrenn still provides a flawless 5c manabase, removal, CA, indirect life gain and a win condition vs control for 2 mana, Hammertime can still win games by turn 3 and Saga will outvalue in the long run.

[drmarkb]

Historically they do NOT ban MH or premium price cards unless they absolutely have to.

I can easily see EI copping a ban.
I can see aid being hit, if they wanted to shake things up as part of a 'hurt everything' strategy but as for elementals, they present the same issue as RB in Pioneer. Good cards but not on their own an issue. W6....that is the interesting one.

Ragavan will continue to steal games early on till someone bites the bullet and bans the bugger.
Saga is much less of an issue in Legacy. We see it encountering Moon effects and being removed, whilst its tokens turn into 0/0;with no abilities often. The tools are there for it ' feed the swarm and other removal can hurt it.
Overall though I don't think Modern needs a ban like Legacy and Pioneer that are desperate for one.. I don't actually think Pioneer needs one,I just think its players come from a ban heavy era and expect one.

Overall I am expecting little in the way of bans till MH 3

[motleyslayer]

tbh an Expressive Iteration ban might actually be a reasonable choice. Card powers a lot of stuff. That way it's still an impactful ban without angering people who spent a bunch of money on a card to have it banned

[Ulka]

tbh an Expressive Iteration ban might actually be a reasonable choice. Card powers a lot of stuff. That way it's still an impactful ban without angering people who spent a bunch of money on a card to have it banned

If they were to ban Expressive Iteration I feel like they could easily justify it and Wrenn Bans with language similar to the Faithless Looting ban about how it was powering too many decks too efficiently.

[iTaLenTZ]

I took a look at the Modern top8's for the past 2 weeks. 50% consists of UR, the rest of the usual suspects. The meta is completely solved. It is quite obvious something needs to happen. Forsythe was head designer for MH2. If they end up doing the right thing by banning Ragavan, W6, Saga and Fury I would expect him to step down. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. Horizons has proven to be a short term cash cow, but unhealthy for game balance in the long run. Or will they ban IE and pretend Ragavan is not a problem? Anyway something needs to happen.

[Simto]

There won't be any consequences for anybody who brought money to the company.
I think there's basically two options for people who love modern. Either go with the flow or try pioneer aka worse modern.

[Simto]

Have you guys seen Minor Misstep? Pretty cool new 1 mana counterspell. Could definitely see play. a non free version of Mental Misstep, but this can also hit 0 cost cards.

[motleyslayer]

Minor Misstep seems pretty good right now in modern with how streamlined the format is. Actaully having to pay mana makes it more restrictive but I can see it being gine

[The Fluff]

Interested to see. What does the Minor Misstep do? The card link does not work.

[Simto]

Interested to see. What does the Minor Misstep do? The card link does not work.

1 mana counterspell that counters something with mana value 1 or less. So it's a non-free mental misstep, but for the one mana you also get to counter 0 cost spells.
I mean modern has "free" spells like force of negation and other powerful stuff, but I'm sure this card will see play somewhere in the 75 of a couple of decks. It's at least worth trying out.

[metalmusic_4]

I've been gone a long time, but I used to hang here alot. Hey Motleyslayer glad to see some people I remember.

I'll play minor misstep, looks great! If you don't want to play it, that's fine I'll take it off your hands.

From reading the last page or so, it looks like we mostly agree Ragavan needs to go, but the next step (like just how much more do we want to deal with at the same time) is still in question, does that sound about right?

I think saga is certainly worth considering, but I'd put W&6 and the evoke elementals a little lower on the list.

I'm sure most people here have a similar story to this now, but I'm going to share anyway. My LGS has not recovered from pandemic in a recognizable way. It's way different now. It's now about 75% commander and 15% draft. The remaining is more pioneer than modern. Of course standard is just dead now.

Something has to change.

[Ed06288]

Somewhat off subject, but since War of the Spark, new releases incrementally became larger. That is, they contain more rares and mythics per set. As of late, we are now averaging about 150 rares and 50 mythics per set. Contrast that with the previous period where releases contained about 50 rares and 15 mythics on average. So either opening a box means opening more and more chaff, or, assuming every card is pretty decent, the power creep has been accelerated dramatically. Which makes me re-think sealed booster box collecting or singles card collecting. If it's harder to pull a specific card anymore, would cards like Boseiju who Endures or Ledger Shredder become valuable in the future? And are sets like Dominaria Remastered more like an overpriced standard set?

[Simto]

I don't know, I haven't bought any new cards in ages, and when I did I only got singles. The only times I've bought sealed products were when my mates and I played sealed for fun. But that was not to pull specific cards, it was just because we always have a lot of fun playing sealed. But haven't done that since before covid.
But even singles. Prices are just insane over the last couple of years.

[iTaLenTZ]

@ Metalmusic

My LGS decided to get rid of Modern and replace it with proxy Legacy some time ago due to popular demand. It is doing decent averaging 15 player every Wednesday evening. Standard hasn't launched in months. Pioneer has the most attendance. Rest is draft, Commander, pauper and there are even talks about pre-Modern.

The fact even Legacy is being played and Modern is not, is serious reason for concerns. I realize my area doesn't represent the entire magic community, but I remember couple of years ago you even had to pre-register for Modern FNM's otherwise they couldn't guarantee a seat. How things have changed!

Maybe Modern is doing great online or is still doing well in paper generally speaking, because they aren't complete fools at Wizards. They have the data. They know how the format is performing. If Modern was really underperforming consistently for months now they would have done something already.