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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

SocorroTortoise wrote:
1 year ago
Nothing about the situation has really changed since mid-March so it just feels like we're inviting the problems we were trying to avoid by distancing/isolating.
I mean, businesses have changed practices to minimize contact, vulnerable populations have been identified, optimal treatments have been narrowed down, a large portion of high contact individuals are already over it, the northern hemisphere is out of the winter months, the rate of testing is consistently increasing while the rate of new positives is dropping in absolute terms, and we found out that so long as you don't pack the population of New York City into half as many buses or have a full blown Mardi Gras celebration, the chances of overwhelming hospitals isn't as high as we feared.

Lots has changed: in what we know now, in how people are behaving, and in how dangerous the pandemic actually is. By no means am I saying there wasn't a crisis and actions weren't justified, but I guarantee we'll be back to genuine normal faster than you think. This is how bad it got by appearing in the middle of cold and flu season and propagating uninhibited before tests for it even existed among populations that didn't know it was there and had no developed immunity to it. Covid-19 won't spike back up like it did again. We're through the hurricane, just waiting for the flood water to recede.
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Post by MeowZeDung » 1 year ago

I agree with just about all of what @tstorm823 said.

The frustrating thing at the moment for me is that, if you suggest we need to "open" things back up you'll get a rage mob or an irate friend telling you that you have some wild disregard for human life. On the other hand, if you suggest that certain precautions be taken, like distancing, isolating nursing homes/elder care, etc., you'll get a rage mob or irate friend telling you that you are living in fear and have a total disregard for individual liberty or peoples' livelihoods. I'll freely confess that I lean more towards the camp of "now that we've mitigated the worst of the outbreak, let's open things up as quick as we can without being reckless", but it's just so hard to hold any sort of middle ground anymore.

I don't see what's so complicated about recognizing that jobs, livelihoods, commerce, etc., are good and necessary things that we need to maintain while also affirming that we need to protect the physical health of vulnerable populations as much as humanly possible. It just feels like nuance in public discourse is dead.
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

MeowZeDung wrote:
1 year ago
I don't see what's so complicated about recognizing that jobs, livelihoods, commerce, etc., are good and necessary things that we need to maintain while also affirming that we need to protect the physical health of vulnerable populations as much as humanly possible. It just feels like nuance in public discourse is dead.
Nuance isn't dead when things matter. Early on, when we had to consider covid-19 as a worst case scenario, the nuance was great. The charts going around about flattening the curve were A+, informed, rational information that balanced the inevitably that people would get sick with goals of preventing those deaths which were feasibly preventable. We're not collectively in that problem-solving mode anymore, now people are starting to feel comfortable going back to political mode, and politics is basically a tug-of-war. To those who have firmly picked a side, it doesn't matter so much where you stand or how hard you pull, it only matters what direction you're pulling. That's where the nuance goes by the wayside.
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

Analysis of the calls of wild prairie dogs show they can distinguish the speed, direction, color and species of potential predators whereas the calls of captive prairie dogs appear to be just screams.

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Post by Rumpy5897 » 1 year ago

Thing is, we still need to be in that problem-solving mode. Just because you have fewer cases of the virus than you did at its peak does not mean it has gone away, and if people get careless then it will happily return. Thankfully some basic mechanisms demonstrated to slow the spread, e.g. mask wearing, can be quite easily adopted. Coupling that with some hopefully smart restriction lifting and contact tracing feels like a way towards relative normality. This is what the SARS/MERS-trained Asian countries seem to be doing. Here's a lovely write-up about the dynamics of this whole ordeal, which has the decency of starting from the absolute basics: https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Plus, recently there's been an influx of antibody studies, which seem to indicate that this thing's even more widespread than estimated. That's actually not necessarily a bad thing, it means that the virus is milder and we're further along our way to herd immunity than expected. Here's a nice collection of various samples: https://www.biospace.com/article/multip ... expected-/
 
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

Rumpy5897 wrote:
1 year ago
Thing is, we still need to be in that problem-solving mode. Just because you have fewer cases of the virus than you did at its peak does not mean it has gone away, and if people get careless then it will happily return. Thankfully some basic mechanisms demonstrated to slow the spread, e.g. mask wearing, can be quite easily adopted. Coupling that with some hopefully smart restriction lifting and contact tracing feels like a way towards relative normality. This is what the SARS/MERS-trained Asian countries seem to be doing. Here's a lovely write-up about the dynamics of this whole ordeal, which has the decency of starting from the absolute basics: https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Plus, recently there's been an influx of antibody studies, which seem to indicate that this thing's even more widespread than estimated. That's actually not necessarily a bad thing, it means that the virus is milder and we're further along our way to herd immunity than expected. Here's a nice collection of various samples: https://www.biospace.com/article/multip ... expected-/
I'm 100% for continued caution, acting on my educated guesses would be reckless and silly, but in addition to the virus being further spread than expected, it's also going to take less immunity for herd immunity to drop the reproductive rate under 1. The equation for calculating herd immunity in theory is a very simple model, and models are always wrong and sometimes useful, and the simpler the equation the less likely it is to be useful. It's like everyone who's taken high school physics has at some point known a projectile launched in a vacuum in gravity goes the furthest if launched at 45 degrees up from horizontal, but since nobody will ever be in that position, it's not something really worth knowing.

The simple theoretical calculation for herd immunity is: herd immunity level = 1 - 1/initial reproductive rate. That initial rate is being estimated between 2 and 3, so if we call it 2.5, you get 1-1/2.5 = 0.6. That why people think it will take 60% infected to reach herd immunity. But that equation is only valid for a homogeneously mixed population of equal susceptibility. It's like doing physics on earth's surface in a perfect vacuum, it's not a naturally occurring circumstance. People don't mix perfectly, some interact with lots of people and some with few. People aren't equally susceptible to viruses. Take measles: the basic reproductive rate is about 15, so in theory it takes 93% immunity to prevent an outbreak. There isn't 7% of the country unvaccinated against measles (at least not yet, hopefully not ever). But we're having measles outbreaks anyway, because children are more susceptible to it than average, and children interact aggressively with other children, the threshold to prevent outbreaks among children, especially in densely populated areas, is higher than that 93%.

Covid-19 is not like measles. Children are disproportionately unaffected. The populations that are more susceptible to it mix less aggressively with the general population than the average person (especially having now identified the at-risk, you're not gonna see many 80 year olds at football games for a while). And in adult populations, we tend to interact with a small set of people regularly (unlike kids who just get in everyone's personal space constantly). Each person who does interact with a large population regularly, people with public facing jobs like the grocery store clerk, the waiter, the nurse, etc, who becomes immune will be a greater roadblock for the virus than if we all were interacting with an equal randomized sample of people from our area. A single person acting as a disease vector to a large population can cause an outbreak, that same person being immune can prevent an outbreak, and a lot of those jobs never turned off. They're the people getting sick and getting immune while we shelter in place. That's going to make the necessary infection rate to impede outbreaks much lower than the simple model suggests. I've seen papers suggest as low as 20% for average population densities.

Edit: like this one https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
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Post by Rumpy5897 » 1 year ago

That's good to know too. Still, more people who already had a brush with the virus is better than not for the sake of its spread. That's all I was getting at, nothing about any specific threshold. Guess the "herd immunity" word choice was suboptimal :P
 
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

so here's the video
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Post by cryogen » 1 year ago

There are other factors as well. People who are not treating this seriously, even if forced to wear a mask, are still behaving sloppily. So they are more likely to spread the virus through careless hand washing practices or not paying attention to social distancing. Also, people are pointing to studies that show younger people being less affected, but those younger people can be carriers and live with older people. Lastly, until people feel safer they will continue to minimize their outdoor interactions if they're smart. So even if the economy is open it won't be anywhere near the capacity it should be to reenergize it. But now, with an open economy workers and employers don't all have protection against unemployment and financial hardships. So we will see more smaller businesses go under and unemployment increase. After all, employers aren't going to hire if the demand doesn't justify it. So this idiotic payroll tax decrease that is being proposed will mostly help larger businesses that should already be able to weather this without government intervention, and the common person is once again screwed.


Edit: I forgot to mention about the younger people "being more resilient to Covid" - we are also finding out that there are lasting effects of the virus on the body. And if you lost your insurance now you have a preexisting condition.
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

cryogen wrote:
1 year ago
After all, employers aren't going to hire if the demand doesn't justify it.
In my current position, I can only personally speak to the architecture, engineering, construction, and surveying industries. The last few days have been wild, a bunch of places are hiring. I'm aware these aren't areas that are terribly difficult to social distance in while getting back to work, but major economic forces that were shut off are swinging back hard. Just not sit-down dining and entertainment venues for a while.

Like all things, 80% of the benefit of the lockdown came from like 20% of the effort, and the other 80% of the effort is falling away.
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Post by Ulka » 1 year ago

After 4 months of unemployment I have a final interview for a solid job prospect. I'm sad that if offered the job it will be paycut to the unemployment I'm receiving but I'm really hyped about the possibility of being able to work again.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 1 year ago

Ulka wrote:
1 year ago
After 4 months of unemployment I have a final interview for a solid job prospect. I'm sad that if offered the job it will be paycut to the unemployment I'm receiving but I'm really hyped about the possibility of being able to work again.
Oof, its a tough time to be unemployed with covid. Best of luck!
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Post by folding_music » 1 year ago

just got an email to say that my C20 precon pre-order is gonna arrive on tuesday. It feels like a non-sequitur now, like I ordered it in a different lifetime; I barely have a contextual grasp of what the cards are for anymore, probably going to live on a shelf unopened until normality reasserts!

quietly coping with the whole pandemic situation, stressed less about catching it now and more about seeing comments from people who, despite living in countries that have become the world's hotspots for the virus thanks to their shambolic con governments, are still mainly scared of things like made-up socialist or feminist straw men and of young people being able to express themselves. if having all this time for introspection during a massive demonstration of gov incompetence doesn't drag you into the now I'm not sure what will.

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Post by RxPhantom » 1 year ago

Here's the thing guys, we are still learning about this virus. We've only have five months to learn about it, and that's practically nothing in the grand scheme. We're still finding out how it affects patients with different comorbidities like diabetes. We're still discovering new symptoms, like one that resembles Kawasaki disease in small children. This virus is no joke, my friends, and even if you don't get sick, you could pass it to someone more vulnerable.

We have no vaccine. We have no herd immunity. The WHO and CDC are predicting successive waves of new cases if we don't maintain social distancing. Use caution. Support local businesses to the best of your ability. Listen to experts and not talking heads with dubious intentions. A vaccine is quite a ways off. Hunker down and be considerate in the meantime. Please.
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Post by lyonhaert » 1 year ago

I just wish the "be considerate" was more popular. Did the shopping trips this weekend, wearing my mask and such. It's interesting how mindfulness and strategy can vary between stores from the store policies/solutions, employee consistency, and even the customers.

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Post by Card Slinger J » 1 year ago

Even though my LGSs recently re-opened for business this weekend I decided to stay home until June 1st depending on whether the suspension of In-Store Play gets lifted or not. Not all LGSs are abiding by this as one I know of is still allowing it without Organized Play events while only limiting 16 people per floor since they have lots of overhead.

There was also a rumor going around that trade binders were being prohibited for use at LGSs since people were worried that the virus could spread from person to person upon contact. Game bags are fine as long as no one except the owner has made contact with them. Otherwise nobody would have any decks and dice to play with.
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

RxPhantom wrote:
1 year ago
Here's the thing guys, we are still learning about this virus. We've only have five months to learn about it, and that's practically nothing in the grand scheme. We're still finding out how it affects patients with different comorbidities like diabetes. We're still discovering new symptoms, like one that resembles Kawasaki disease in small children. This virus is no joke, my friends, and even if you don't get sick, you could pass it to someone more vulnerable.

We have no vaccine. We have no herd immunity. The WHO and CDC are predicting successive waves of new cases if we don't maintain social distancing. Use caution. Support local businesses to the best of your ability. Listen to experts and not talking heads with dubious intentions. A vaccine is quite a ways off. Hunker down and be considerate in the meantime. Please.
Using caution and being considerate is the only part of this I can agree with. Where I'm from, the increase in overdose deaths during quarantine outnumbers the covid deaths. I understand that doesn't apply everywhere, but locking down and living in fear has severe consequences, playing it safe with the virus is actually quite dangerous overall.

Don't live in fear. Don't spread fear. There's more than enough real suffering from the virus to encourage people to be safe and considerate. Spreading paranoid fear of unknown horrors awaiting in the future that are unlikely to happen does more harm than good.

Edit: To be specific on at least one thing, the Kawasaki-like syndrome. You may have seen there's a 30-fold increase in children with those symptoms over previous years, but that is comparing to 1 child every 3 months. You may have seen it explicitly referred to as a symptom of covid19, but some of the children test negative for both the virus and the antibodies. And if you'd like an expert opinion, "it is crucial to reiterate—for parents and health-care workers alike—that children remain minimally affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection overall."

Or this: https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/16/cor ... n-children
The early NHS warning suggested that "there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases."

Professor Robert Tulloh, a cardiologist at Bristol Royal Hospital for Children, told Euronews last month:

"There might be worse cases of [Kawasaki disease] because they are presenting late - since they were mistakenly thought to be COVID-19 until too late. Or there might actually be more cases of Kawasaki disease triggered by COVID-19, masquerading as COVID-19 or actually COVID-19-related."

"​It will take many months before the epidemiologists can let us know whether there is a link. It will be complicated and not a simple answer," Tulloh added.

Tulloh says there was thought to be a link between Kawasaki disease and SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) during the 2003 outbreak, but that theory has since been disproven.

"As with COVID-19, Kawasaki disease can be mild in most cases and we would not want to cause alarm or panic among parents of young children," added Tulloh.
Like, please don't spread terror over very, very rare, often mild, and potentially unrelated symptoms.
Last edited by tstorm823 1 year ago, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Hermes_ » 1 year ago

on the fallout 76 subreddit,somone said they could listen to my voice all day and another user said "Getting Bob Ross vibes from the narration." ^_^
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Post by cryogen » 1 year ago

I'm going to go ahead and make a formal request to drop the topic of how states/countries are responding and what "should" happen. Talking about how you are personally impacted and handling it is fine, but there are too many differing opinions and I don't particularly want to see this thread turn into a debate.

I realize that this request has a lot of gray area and is open for interpretation, so please think about my intent and proceed with your best judgment. Thanks.



In other news, I don't remember if I've mentioned Animal Crossing yet. We bought it for the kid, and soon the wife and I started playing. Predictably, both of them have gradually lost interest in it, while I'm building pretty regularly. Only problem is that whomever creates the island is the one that can unlock full controls, so I'm at the mercy of my daughter. And of course, you can only have one island per Switch, so I can't even start my own Island.
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Post by Airi » 1 year ago

cryogen wrote:
1 year ago
In other news, I don't remember if I've mentioned Animal Crossing yet. We bought it for the kid, and soon the wife and I started playing. Predictably, both of them have gradually lost interest in it, while I'm building pretty regularly. Only problem is that whomever creates the island is the one that can unlock full controls, so I'm at the mercy of my daughter. And of course, you can only have one island per Switch, so I can't even start my own Island.
I gave up. I absolutely hate the IRL timegating for the game. >.< I want to love it, but it does not keep my interest.
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

cryogen wrote:
1 year ago
In other news, I don't remember if I've mentioned Animal Crossing yet. We bought it for the kid, and soon the wife and I started playing. Predictably, both of them have gradually lost interest in it, while I'm building pretty regularly. Only problem is that whomever creates the island is the one that can unlock full controls, so I'm at the mercy of my daughter. And of course, you can only have one island per Switch, so I can't even start my own Island.
You're better off with the shared island. Eventually the difference between players is exclusively choosing where bridges and inclines go, and that extra control isn't worth living in solitude on an island that never changes unless you put in the work personally.
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Post by RxPhantom » 1 year ago

My wife underwent surgery to donate bone marrow today. When I was in pharmacy school, my friend's son was diagnosed with Fanconi anemia, and organized an event with Be the Match, a non-profit that connects donors and recipients. She got the call in January, and a courier is currently on his way to Texas for a 13-year old boy with sickle cell anemia. I'm really proud of her.

Side note on gaming, Streets of Rage 4 is still my jam.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 1 year ago

RxPhantom wrote:
1 year ago
My wife underwent surgery to donate bone marrow today. When I was in pharmacy school, my friend's son was diagnosed with Fanconi anemia, and organized an event with Be the Match, a non-profit that connects donors and recipients. She got the call in January, and a courier is currently on his way to Texas for a 13-year old boy with sickle cell anemia. I'm really proud of her.

Side note on gaming, Streets of Rage 4 is still my jam.
Wow that's an incredibly kind thing to do.

Not really related but I went to pick up a carry out pizza this weekend. I live near a town of casinos and said pizza joint is in a casino that had been closed for the last month. When I went inside there appeared to be a good 50 people or so and none of them were covering their faces. It made me....... more than a little concerned. The workers at least were covering but literally nobody else seemed to be.
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Post by cryogen » 1 year ago

tstorm823 wrote:
1 year ago
cryogen wrote:
1 year ago
In other news, I don't remember if I've mentioned Animal Crossing yet. We bought it for the kid, and soon the wife and I started playing. Predictably, both of them have gradually lost interest in it, while I'm building pretty regularly. Only problem is that whomever creates the island is the one that can unlock full controls, so I'm at the mercy of my daughter. And of course, you can only have one island per Switch, so I can't even start my own Island.
You're better off with the shared island. Eventually the difference between players is exclusively choosing where bridges and inclines go, and that extra control isn't worth living in solitude on an island that never changes unless you put in the work personally.
Well I'm the one putting in all the work so far, and I kinda want to access the real terraforming, not just making a bridge or ramp.
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Post by tstorm823 » 1 year ago

cryogen wrote:
1 year ago
Well I'm the one putting in all the work so far, and I kinda want to access the real terraforming, not just making a bridge or ramp.
Which you'll have... eventually.
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