[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

I hope I'm wrong too. In the event I'm not, I think we're still many years away from that. But, the signs really do point towards the game trying to put focus on being played electronically rather than in paper as the primary method of playing it.

Just look at tournament coverage. Fewer GP's are streamed now, both in percentages and in absolute numbers than a couple years ago, despite the technology improving. SCG is pulling back on their tournament series too. Meanwhile, Wizards is taking the money that used to be used to stream GP's, to instead sponsor Twitch streamers, and to get MTGA tournaments casted. They're definitely pivoting to making the face of the game digital.

User avatar
The Fluff
Le fou, c'est moi
Posts: 2398
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
4 years ago
Here's what I'm wondering:

If WotC stops supporting Modern, will people stop playing it?
answer is a simple no. I own the cards, have people to play them with. And it's fun attacking people with zombie fish. :P
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

User avatar
ktkenshinx
Posts: 571
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: West Coast
Contact:

Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
4 years ago
I sincerely hope you are wrong.

But if you aren't... Maybe they will go all digital and stop supporting paper magic. Then the players can take control of all the non-rotating formats and make it fun again (like they did with EDH). I just can't imagine I will stop playing with my cards just because WotC stops printing them.
Aazadan wrote:
4 years ago
I hope I'm wrong too. In the event I'm not, I think we're still many years away from that. But, the signs really do point towards the game trying to put focus on being played electronically rather than in paper as the primary method of playing it.

Just look at tournament coverage. Fewer GP's are streamed now, both in percentages and in absolute numbers than a couple years ago, despite the technology improving. SCG is pulling back on their tournament series too. Meanwhile, Wizards is taking the money that used to be used to stream GP's, to instead sponsor Twitch streamers, and to get MTGA tournaments casted. They're definitely pivoting to making the face of the game digital.
I also believe Wizards is slowly gearing towards digital as the primary way to play MTG. I don't like using any "I-told-you-so" moments, but I remember in late 2018 when I (others too) predicted we would see MTG Arena PTs, events, and in general a huge uptick in digital/MTGA coverage. Dissenters said this would alienate the core MTG demographic and brand, but I thought it was pretty clear this was the direction; Wizards pushed MTGA so hard I couldn't see it any other way. We're a year out from that and it's pretty clear MTGA remains the way of the future. I don't think they will completely get rid of paper Magic, at least not for a very long time, but it's clear the focus is going to be digital. Paper will be secondary.

Incidentally, an all-digital MTG solves significant balance problems across formats. As I've talked about before and will continue to talk about, "patching" is a significantly better solution to format balance issues than banning. Ignoring the obvious paper consequences (RIP paper in this future), imagine a world where no cards were banned in any format and all metagame issues were addressed by small changes to cards. You could add or subtract from basically any number of numeric values on cards to make them fairer or more competitive. Decks would never suffer bannings in this future; only small nerfs or buffs. The Reserved List would also never be an issue and players could pursue any format they wanted. The paper costs of this shift would be significant, but at least for those enjoying the digital experience, you'd move away from some of the worst issues MTG currently faces. Of course, this would come with a slew of hidden costs (e.g. designers could test sets less and fall back on patching for issues, no deck would be safe from sudden patches, etc.), but I think those would outweigh the consumer confidence issues we're currently facing. It would also come with obvious costs, like paper taking a clear second seat to digital.

To be clear, I don't think paper MTG is going anywhere, anytime soon. Paper MTG remains profitable by all measures, and until that changes, or until the margins become unfavorable, Wizards will continue to supply that product. But depending on just how profitable MTGA is over the next few years, I could see them continue to shift the balance to favor digital products.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

iTaLenTZ
Posts: 252
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by iTaLenTZ » 4 years ago

Against better judgement today I attended a Modern tourney and was already regretting it the moment I left home. First match ofcourse was against Okurza and even though I had a full board of hate it still easily won. I shut down Emry, Oko, Urza and Karn but he won through Mystic Sanctuary and CC. I was asking myself what I was still doing a the table. Still played game 2 and more of the same. Shut down his graveyard, Emry and Oko, removed Urza and the token while also fighting through the counterspells and spot removal, but he kept drawing relevant spells every turn. The deck just doesn't have dead draws. He played Karn and won. Played a couple more rounds, had a good time vs some other decks but still dropped and felt like I wasted my day.

Usually the tourney is full during pre-registration but today there were still more than enough tickets left. I lot of players are just done with this garbage. If its not Faithless Loothing, its Hogaak and now Urza. I talked to a lot of people and most are on their last straw for Modern. and a lot of the usual people didn't attend. Also nobody was buying my cards. Pioneer is in 2 weeks and already sold out. Enough said.

Pioneer is still work in progress and it isn't yet where it needs to be but at least it presents a better alternative than this clownfiesta. Past 6 weeks I haven't attended a single Modern FNM but from what I heard today attendance has dropped a lot the past few weeks.

User avatar
FoodChainGoblins
Level 47
Posts: 900
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Riverside

Post by FoodChainGoblins » 4 years ago

Yeah, there are a lot of issues with Modern. I think the best way to recover the player base would be some unbans, but it doesn't seem like that's the direction WotC wants to go.

Maybe they do want to kill off Modern? Maybe there's truth in what many others (who I have thought to be silly) have said? If so, that's pretty sad and I feel like there's still a lot of money to be made in Modern. I did read somewhere that it would be too hard for them to get Modern into Arena because of the card pool. That's seems odd since honestly you can do anything with a computer nowadays. Never let WotC's incapable systems ever convince you otherwise...
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

User avatar
Amalgam
Posts: 151
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Amalgam » 4 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
4 years ago
Against better judgement today I attended a Modern tourney and was already regretting it the moment I left home. First match ofcourse was against Okurza and even though I had a full board of hate it still easily won. I shut down Emry, Oko, Urza and Karn but he won through Mystic Sanctuary and CC. I was asking myself what I was still doing a the table. Still played game 2 and more of the same. Shut down his graveyard, Emry and Oko, removed Urza and the token while also fighting through the counterspells and spot removal, but he kept drawing relevant spells every turn. The deck just doesn't have dead draws. He played Karn and won. Played a couple more rounds, had a good time vs some other decks but still dropped and felt like I wasted my day.

Usually the tourney is full during pre-registration but today there were still more than enough tickets left. I lot of players are just done with this garbage. If its not Faithless Loothing, its Hogaak and now Urza. I talked to a lot of people and most are on their last straw for Modern. and a lot of the usual people didn't attend. Also nobody was buying my cards. Pioneer is in 2 weeks and already sold out. Enough said.

Pioneer is still work in progress and it isn't yet where it needs to be but at least it presents a better alternative than this clownfiesta. Past 6 weeks I haven't attended a single Modern FNM but from what I heard today attendance has dropped a lot the past few weeks.
And what deck were you playing, did you have a clock etc. Don't get me wrong the deck is one of the better one right now but playing a reactive deck that purely just plays draw go is not winning you anything in modern even against other decks

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
4 years ago
Against better judgement today I attended a Modern tourney and was already regretting it the moment I left home. First match ofcourse was against Okurza and even though I had a full board of hate it still easily won. I shut down Emry, Oko, Urza and Karn but he won through Mystic Sanctuary and CC. I was asking myself what I was still doing a the table. Still played game 2 and more of the same. Shut down his graveyard, Emry and Oko, removed Urza and the token while also fighting through the counterspells and spot removal, but he kept drawing relevant spells every turn. The deck just doesn't have dead draws. He played Karn and won. Played a couple more rounds, had a good time vs some other decks but still dropped and felt like I wasted my day.

Usually the tourney is full during pre-registration but today there were still more than enough tickets left. I lot of players are just done with this garbage. If its not Faithless Loothing, its Hogaak and now Urza. I talked to a lot of people and most are on their last straw for Modern. and a lot of the usual people didn't attend. Also nobody was buying my cards. Pioneer is in 2 weeks and already sold out. Enough said.

Pioneer is still work in progress and it isn't yet where it needs to be but at least it presents a better alternative than this clownfiesta. Past 6 weeks I haven't attended a single Modern FNM but from what I heard today attendance has dropped a lot the past few weeks.
I get where you're coming from, but for me it's because the local meta game is awful. We usually have 50% Tron on any given week, and lately it has been closer to 75% and some nights even 90%. As someone who mostly enjoys playing decks that have awful Tron matchups it's truly miserable to be in a room of nothing but Tron variants.

iTaLenTZ
Posts: 252
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by iTaLenTZ » 4 years ago

Amalgam wrote:
4 years ago
And what deck were you playing, did you have a clock etc. Don't get me wrong the deck is one of the better one right now but playing a reactive deck that purely just plays draw go is not winning you anything in modern even against other decks
I was playing aggro-control. and had a decent clock bot games besides all the disruption. Game 1 he ended up on 6 lives, topdecked Oko and I scooped. Second game he was on 4 lives but with Karn and 2 Gooses on the field so he was preventing 3 damage per turn and I was also forced to attack Karn or fear to lose the game on the spot. Then he played Esnaring Bride with Karn -2 and stalled 2 turns with it while gaining 6 lives with Goose and drawed EE and I scooped. All with all it was a terrible experience and you won't see me near a Modern tourney for quite a while.

We discussed bans for the deck and reached the conclusion at least 2 pieces need to go. Main suspects are Urza and Emry and most probably also Oko should get banned but because of more reasons. Mox opal doesn't really do that much if Urza and Emry are gone and you prevent collateral damage on Affinity and Hardened Scales

If you only ban Mox Opal the deck continues to exist in almost the same iteration. Urza doesn't need Mox Opal, especially since they are also running Goose now. Mox Opal is a luxury not a necessity for the deck. There is a case to be made that Astrolabe is actually more valuable for the deck.

If you only ban Urza people will shift the deck towards Lantern Control, which would be the then best Mox Opal/Emry deck. If people were leaving the format in masses now wait until Lantern becomes the best deck.

If you only ban Emry the deck can go back to its prior iteration with Thopter-Foundry combo or Goblin Engineer and still remain the best deck. Same goes if you only ban Oko.

Finally, I wonder why they don't play OUAT. It makes a turn 1 Goose more consistent and helps find Emry and Urza.

User avatar
FoodChainGoblins
Level 47
Posts: 900
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Riverside

Post by FoodChainGoblins » 4 years ago

Amalgam wrote:
4 years ago
And what deck were you playing, did you have a clock etc. Don't get me wrong the deck is one of the better one right now but playing a reactive deck that purely just plays draw go is not winning you anything in modern even against other decks
This is what I was thinking. In Modern, you really have to clock your opponents and have a way to clock planeswalkers with high loyalties, outside of having an infinite combo that wins on the spot.
Aazadan wrote:
4 years ago
I get where you're coming from, but for me it's because the local meta game is awful. We usually have 50% Tron on any given week, and lately it has been closer to 75% and some nights even 90%. As someone who mostly enjoys playing decks that have awful Tron matchups it's truly miserable to be in a room of nothing but Tron variants.
I understand that you enjoy playing decks that have poor Tron matchups, but I would Looooooove that meta. It would give me a chance to even try Infect, which I literally haven't touched since the Probe ban and printing of Fatal Push. While I do play a lot of decks that have a poor Tron matchup, I also play a lot of decks that have an amazing Tron matchup. :grin:

*Urza, Lord High Artificer told me this, "Why would I need Mox Opal when I have many, many Mox Sapphires?" It's nice having Food, Astrolabes, Baubles, and 50% of what the deck plays being a Mox Sapphire in addition to its other abilities.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

User avatar
The Fluff
Le fou, c'est moi
Posts: 2398
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

[mention]FoodChainGoblins[/mention]

tron decks taking over the local meta over here would be sweet. Time to bring out ghost quarters, damping sphere, and aven mindcensors. Well, and against E-tron it's just more board wipes. :)
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

[mention]The Fluff[/mention] it's only sweet until you sit down for 4 rounds of Magic and the first round is against G Tron, second round against Eldrazi Tron, third round against some bastardized Eldrazi/Taxes/Tron, and the fourth round is against U Tron.

User avatar
FoodChainGoblins
Level 47
Posts: 900
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Riverside

Post by FoodChainGoblins » 4 years ago

Aazadan wrote:
4 years ago
The Fluff it's only sweet until you sit down for 4 rounds of Magic and the first round is against G Tron, second round against Eldrazi Tron, third round against some bastardized Eldrazi/Taxes/Tron, and the fourth round is against U Tron.
Are they giving out Tron lands like candy in your area? :?
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

User avatar
The Fluff
Le fou, c'est moi
Posts: 2398
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

[mention]Aazadan[/mention] [mention]FoodChainGoblins[/mention]

I guess this comes down to preference. I have no problem sitting 4 rounds of tron. As I've said in a previous post.. our area is home to Tron variants. Two of my close friends play tron of both types, so I'm sort of desensitized against the deck. Sure, they can go obv stone, next turn blow it up, then ugin and friends show up... but that's fine, we laugh it off while having cold drinks between games. :p
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

User avatar
drmarkb
Posts: 634
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by drmarkb » 4 years ago

Yawgmoth wrote:
4 years ago
Here's what I'm wondering:

If WotC stops supporting Modern, will people stop playing it?

Even if Hasbro pushes arena and pioneer/commander until Modern effectively dies, people will still have physical cards. I'll still play Modern with my friends even if WotC doesn't support it. How many other people will do the same? Isn't that effectively where Legacy is? My LGS fires off weekly Legacy tournaments... won't Modern be the same?

I have no desire to play Arena or MTGO because I don't like video/computer games. I like playing with cards. Even if wizards literally stops printing cards, I will keep playing their game. At that point, they would be stupid to not keep making stuff for me to buy. I think some of the OG creators at WotC know that there is something special about physical game pieces versus digital.
I think Modern will not have the enthusiasm legacy has- it is in the same place as Legacy- overpowered threats, but unlike Legacy, fewer tools to fight, so no, without support Modern will keel over.

User avatar
ktkenshinx
Posts: 571
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: West Coast
Contact:

Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
4 years ago
Usually the tourney is full during pre-registration but today there were still more than enough tickets left. I lot of players are just done with this garbage. If its not Faithless Loothing, its Hogaak and now Urza. I talked to a lot of people and most are on their last straw for Modern. and a lot of the usual people didn't attend. Also nobody was buying my cards. Pioneer is in 2 weeks and already sold out. Enough said.
I wouldn't read too much into Modern vs. Pioneer sales. Pioneer is the hot new thing with unexplored top-tier strategies. There is a significant amount of money, at least in Magic terms, to be made in this format. Modern is thoroughly explored and your spec targets are few and far between. Modern could be extremely robust, healthy, and popular right now, and we would still probably see Pioneer sales exceeding Modern sales by most measures. I still firmly believe Modern is in big trouble these days, but the Pioneer sales figures are not an indicator of this.
Pioneer is still work in progress and it isn't yet where it needs to be but at least it presents a better alternative than this clownfiesta. Past 6 weeks I haven't attended a single Modern FNM but from what I heard today attendance has dropped a lot the past few weeks.
The Pioneer metagame is quite ugly, but as you suggest here, that's okay to a lot of players. We are guaranteed to see more bans before 2020's Pioneer paper events, and virtually guaranteed to see a ban or two tomorrow. Players will accept Pioneer bans because the format didn't start with a banlist beyond fetchlands, and we understand all formats are going to have some unacceptable cards. This is true of both lower power formats (Standard, thanks to Wizards' bad decisions) and higher power formats (Legacy; FoW/Daze/Wasteland/etc. can't make everything safe). Players also love that Pioneer is the hot new thing in Magic with a significant support foundation from Wizards. All of this is going to keep Pioneer popular throughout 2019 and into much of 2020. That said, if Pioneer does not deliver on the two most important promises (1. nonrotating format without artificial ban rotations, 2. diverse format where "anything" can win), then Pioneer will fall out of favor and Modern will be back in vogue. I am currently banking on Pioneer based on Wizards' decisions so far.
FoodChainGoblins wrote:
4 years ago
Yeah, there are a lot of issues with Modern. I think the best way to recover the player base would be some unbans, but it doesn't seem like that's the direction WotC wants to go.

Maybe they do want to kill off Modern? Maybe there's truth in what many others (who I have thought to be silly) have said? If so, that's pretty sad and I feel like there's still a lot of money to be made in Modern. I did read somewhere that it would be too hard for them to get Modern into Arena because of the card pool. That's seems odd since honestly you can do anything with a computer nowadays. Never let WotC's incapable systems ever convince you otherwise...
To be clear, I fully believe there are departments in Wizards that want to replace Modern with Pioneer. You might view this as them "killing" Modern, and you probably wouldn't be wrong. But that has nothing to do with unbans. I'm confident the decision to not unban cards has absolutely nothing to do with deliberately killing Modern, and absolutely everything to do with benign, oblivious mismanagement. Wizards is going to slowly tank Modern to support their vision of MTG Arena, Pioneer, and contemporary Magic. Their failure to unban Modern cards, however, is totally out of conversation with that strategy. It's just typical, recurring R&D mismanagement.
drmarkb wrote:
4 years ago
I think Modern will not have the enthusiasm legacy has- it is in the same place as Legacy- overpowered threats, but unlike Legacy, fewer tools to fight, so no, without support Modern will keel over.
I agree and will keep restating this. In my experience, there are comparatively very few players who love Modern because of Modern-specific, cardpool reasons. The most vocal players, especially if you are doing cursory searches online to gauge Modern perception, dislike the vast majority of decks. I know that's not true for all players, but it's hard to escape the truth that Modern is a format of memes, hot takes, and predominantly uninteractive decks. Even if this isn't true at all levels, it is almost certainly true at most levels; it was true at both a recent GP and in the October/November MTGO analysis I posted a few pages back. It's highly unlikely players enjoy this in its own right.

Rather, I think players love 1. a nonrotating format where you are reasonably safe to emotionally/financially invest in a deck (except Twin), and 2. a diverse format where there is the partial reality, partial perception that anything can win any event. As long as Pioneer also fulfills this promise, Modern will lose its biggest draws and become increasingly irrelevant and unsupported.

Re: team events
I've been thinking about @Azadan's points earlier regarding team formats. In summary, the idea is that Modern is necessary for team constructed events because you need something to pair with Pioneer and Standard (the obvious inclusions). I initially agreed with this, but now I don't think this is necessary. In fact, I think it is significantly more likely we see that third team format go in a different direction: Pauper or Brawl. Brawl in particular would further Wizards' plan to monetize all the older formats in a new form (true EDH Commander is tough because of the Reserved List), and would fit their pattern of "forcing" newer formats onto tables. A Pioneer/Standard/Brawl team event would be super sweet from a player and viewing perspective, and would shine the spotlight entirely on newer, contemporary Magic. This aligns with Wizards push across most fronts, and I'd bet on this team format before I bet on Modern having long-term team relevance. Pauper is another option for similar reasons, but it's less compelling than Brawl from a Wizards marketing perspective.

Re: metagame health
Here's all 1600 decks from Legacy GP Bologna:

This is an extremely interactive field, but it's incredibly unbalanced by some contemporary Wizards banning principles. 6 of the T8 decks are Brainstorm/FoW decks. 11 of the T16 decks fit that same pattern. But beyond that, there's a ton of interaction, decision-making, and even non-blue diversity. Sure, BS/FoW decks are probably the "best" by sheer performance, but there are still other viable options (Eldrazi, Depths, D&T, Dredge, etc.), and this kind of BS/FoW-based Magic necessarily involves lots of decision-making, choices, and interaction points. Now, if you don't like blue Magic, you are going to hate Legacy. But that gives the format a very strong identity and a strong player core of predominantly enfranchised, older, spikey players who enjoy this kind of higher-power but still interactive Magic. This is true even if the metagame doesn't "look healthy" from a color diversity perspective. Compare with Modern, which is more "diverse" from the standpoint of cards/colors getting used, but has a lot less going for it. It's just diversity for its own sake, not diversity underlying some kind of strong format identity. I guess Modern could be the haymaker format, but I doubt that inspires the same kind of loyalty as we see in Legacy. Overall, this is just another way of showing significant core issues with Modern that Pioneer's expansion will exploit.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010

User avatar
idSurge
Posts: 1121
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by idSurge » 4 years ago

Man...I wish I had.

1. A local legacy scene.
2. A desire to drop the $$$ on the lands it would take to play it.

Blue Magic, remains the best Magic.
UR Control UR

User avatar
Bearscape
Posts: 233
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Bearscape » 4 years ago

God Im sick of Oko

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
4 years ago
The Pioneer metagame is quite ugly, but as you suggest here, that's okay to a lot of players. We are guaranteed to see more bans before 2020's Pioneer paper events, and virtually guaranteed to see a ban or two tomorrow. Players will accept Pioneer bans because the format didn't start with a banlist beyond fetchlands, and we understand all formats are going to have some unacceptable cards. This is true of both lower power formats (Standard, thanks to Wizards' bad decisions) and higher power formats (Legacy; FoW/Daze/Wasteland/etc. can't make everything safe).
I think there's another indicator here as far as bans go, and this is one I think you're familiar with. Over time Wizards has restricted information more and more to prevent players from figuring out the meta game. As a game developer myself, including on MMO's in the past I'm familiar with this strategy. Balance isn't really all that important, as long as you have the perception of balance. Every move I have seen Wizards make in previous years has followed this philosophy. From restricting 5-0 reporting, to then curating lists of 5-0's to show diversity in decks, to trying to prevent places like mtgtop8 from reporting event results. With enough information manipulation, the need to ban cards can be hidden. I think a current example of this in action might be Urza decks, which data indicates may have been the best deck even in the Hogaak era and with proper information, players would have figured that out.

I also don't think it's a coincidence that as Wizards has taken steps to obfuscate more information, that it seems their internal testing process has gotten more lax.

Considering this, I have very little confidence in the Pioneer ban list. I think that it is going to wind up a format with far more ban mania than even Modern had in it's early years, and I don't think all of those bans are going to be warranted because perception matters more than actual results. As such, the format is going to largely develop boogeymen and demand action. This isn't helped by the fact that the MTG community has mostly decentralized in the past couple years, into deck specific discord channels, and Reddit in place of more traditional forums which expose players to more diverse sets of views. There's a flip side to this too though, where a card can be a legitimate problem but Wizards can't ban it because players haven't yet identified it as a problem.

I would like to be wrong here, but Wizards will need to change their actions pretty significantly for me to be wrong.
Re: team events
I've been thinking about @Azadan's points earlier regarding team formats. In summary, the idea is that Modern is necessary for team constructed events because you need something to pair with Pioneer and Standard (the obvious inclusions). I initially agreed with this, but now I don't think this is necessary. In fact, I think it is significantly more likely we see that third team format go in a different direction: Pauper or Brawl. Brawl in particular would further Wizards' plan to monetize all the older formats in a new form (true EDH Commander is tough because of the Reserved List), and would fit their pattern of "forcing" newer formats onto tables. A Pioneer/Standard/Brawl team event would be super sweet from a player and viewing perspective, and would shine the spotlight entirely on newer, contemporary Magic. This aligns with Wizards push across most fronts, and I'd bet on this team format before I bet on Modern having long-term team relevance. Pauper is another option for similar reasons, but it's less compelling than Brawl from a Wizards marketing perspective.


I had considered both of those formats as well. In the case of Pauper, I readily admit that I'm not familiar with the metagame or format staples. Depending on how many cards it would involve adding to Arena this could be possible. My initial thought is that this is significantly more work than adding Modern, but I have to admit that it's truly something different from Pioneer/Standard and it has the benefit of transferring well to paper as the costs are relatively low and it has no reserve list issues.

I think the biggest pushback against this is the message it would send in terms of the collectability of a players cards. Modern has always had something of an issue in terms of scale. The issue of reprints are tricky, and at current printing levels, if we fast forward 7 years, older Pioneer sets are going to have similar issues that older Modern sets have today. The solution would then be to replace Pioneer with something else, and that runs into significant issues for Magic's brand, unless they've moved primarily to digital at that point.

I think that Brawl is very unlikely to be a third format. Mainly because Wizards has been trying to keep EDH as a non competitive format. They're definitely exerting more control over the format than they did in past years, but I think they realize that pushing EDH to more competitive avenues, which is something that Brawl would begin to do (and that Tiny Leaders would have also done), would do a lot of damage to that format and start forcing a lot of bans that everyone would prefer to avoid.

Also, I think Brawl is too narrow a card pool. Maybe a Pioneer legal card pool for Brawl could work after a few more years, but it's not realistic right now. And there's still my previous point too.
This is an extremely interactive field, but it's incredibly unbalanced by some contemporary Wizards banning principles. 6 of the T8 decks are Brainstorm/FoW decks. 11 of the T16 decks fit that same pattern.
By every realistic metric, Brainstorm should be banned from the format based on metagame prevalence. The problem is that despite the way it warps the format it also keeps the format in check by allowing people to find sideboard hate. Banning Brainstorm would likely require another 25 to 50 bans to get the format in check.

As I've been playing with Once Upon a Time more, I'm starting to get similar feelings towards it that I have towards Brainstorm. I've been playing a lot lately with my own green Modern cantrip cabal of 4 Oath of Nissa, 4 Once Upon a Time, and sometimes a few other cards. It feels like playing a Legacy blue deck. I'm not sure if that's a good or bad thing yet, but it is what it is and I'm finding it's redefining how I think about deck building in Modern. If you check the developing decks you'll see a Painter's Servant brew I've been playing with. They're highly interactive board based decks with library manipulation. I don't think I have the best shell for something like that yet, but it's been an interesting area to explore and lets me address a lot of the formats problems.

Edit: There's one more point I would like to add to defending Brainstorm. It's often referred to in Legacy as playing a non blue deck as hard mode and it's true. In Legacy, my preferred deck is Nic Fit, and usually I play some weird green/black brews. Building these for a tournament requires understanding the current metagame, and knowing good play patterns against all the decks out there. It's not something you can pick up casually (Nic Fit in general is known as a deck that requires minimum 3 years of practice to get decent with). In contrast a lot of the major blue decks can be picked up and dropped on a whim. Essentially, Brainstorm lowers the non financial barrier to entry to the format and since Legacy doesn't get all that much play, that reduced barrier to entry is incredibly attractive to players.

if Modern is ever going to transition to a format that's like Legacy, it's going to require cards that can function in a similar capacity. I think Tron is a deck that does that, but I also think that the green cantrip suite is another set of cards that can help here (especially when your sideboard cards are creature based).

Essentially, my point is that Brainstorm does something that the numbers don't initially suggest, which is that it makes the format more accessible even though by the numbers Brainstorm based decks are clearly bannable. As evidence of this, I'll point to Andrea Mengucci doing well in this event. If you ever watch his Legacy videos and are familiar with the decks he's playing, his play patterns are rage inducing. He knows the format, but doesn't really know decks outside of maybe Delver, yet he's able to do well due to a set of cantrips which Brainstorm plays a large part in. If we want to argue accessibility, I think this is an important thing to consider especially as a format grows in size.

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

idSurge wrote:
4 years ago
Man...I wish I had.

1. A local legacy scene.
2. A desire to drop the $$$ on the lands it would take to play it.

Blue Magic, remains the best Magic.
I've got a huge legacy collection at this point. I'm thinking of getting rid of it because there's no local scene. But, something I've found interesting is that over time the number of lands needed in decks has been decreasing. Delver decks are probably the worst offenders of needing high land counts, but most other blue decks need a few as 6, Miracles is fully playable with just 2. The decks I usually mess around with need around 3 to 4 duals.

That said, for the amount of time most people get to actually play the format, the cost is rather high for most people.

User avatar
The Fluff
Le fou, c'est moi
Posts: 2398
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Gradius Home World
Contact:

Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

[mention]Aazadan[/mention]

I suggest getting rid of most of your legacy collection, sell them and turn to money. while they still have value. Well, leave just enough to make a deck, so you have something to play if a legacy tournament happens. Took literally years before some people bought my duals, karakas, and wasteland.
Image
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a uw control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread

Yawgmoth
Posts: 170
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Yawgmoth » 4 years ago

Aazadan wrote:
4 years ago
idSurge wrote:
4 years ago
Man...I wish I had.

1. A local legacy scene.
2. A desire to drop the $$$ on the lands it would take to play it.

Blue Magic, remains the best Magic.
I've got a huge legacy collection at this point. I'm thinking of getting rid of it because there's no local scene. But, something I've found interesting is that over time the number of lands needed in decks has been decreasing. Delver decks are probably the worst offenders of needing high land counts, but most other blue decks need a few as 6, Miracles is fully playable with just 2. The decks I usually mess around with need around 3 to 4 duals.

That said, for the amount of time most people get to actually play the format, the cost is rather high for most people.
I've got 2 of those 2 things. There seems to be a pretty solid Legacy scene around me. I've got the desire but maybe not as much of the $$$ as I'd like. I'm hoping to sell off some of my Modern cards to buy the Legacy cards I need.

metalmusic_4
Posts: 279
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by metalmusic_4 » 4 years ago

idSurge wrote:
4 years ago
Man...I wish I had.

1. A local legacy scene.
2. A desire to drop the $$$ on the lands it would take to play it.

Blue Magic, remains the best Magic.
FYI, legacy dredge lands are CHEAP! (LED is not though) Manaless dredge or a few other decks have decent mana bases, UB deaths shadow uses shock lands, reanimator works in mono black pretty well, and then there is always belcher which will work just fine off of a stomping ground, and burn does exist.
Now to relate this back to modern.......our mana is rediculos too, scalding tarns are outrageous. I paid more for my tarns than I did for some of my beat up duels.

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
4 years ago
Aazadan

I suggest getting rid of most of your legacy collection, sell them and turn to money. while they still have value. Well, leave just enough to make a deck, so you have something to play if a legacy tournament happens. Took literally years before some people bought my duals, karakas, and wasteland.
I've thought about it. It's less about the money to me, and more about the opportunity to play. The difficulty in selling stuff off at anywhere near it's value is of course an issue too, More than anything, cards being extremely slow to liquidate these days is the biggest factor in encouraging me to want to sell now. But, as mentioned before, the deck I play is Nic Fit which has variants in any GB/x color combination, which encourages me to hang onto a bunch of cards.

User avatar
idSurge
Posts: 1121
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by idSurge » 4 years ago

metalmusic_4 wrote:
4 years ago
idSurge wrote:
4 years ago
Man...I wish I had.

1. A local legacy scene.
2. A desire to drop the $$$ on the lands it would take to play it.

Blue Magic, remains the best Magic.
FYI, legacy dredge lands are CHEAP! (LED is not though) Manaless dredge or a few other decks have decent mana bases, UB deaths shadow uses shock lands, reanimator works in mono black pretty well, and then there is always belcher which will work just fine off of a stomping ground, and burn does exist.
Now to relate this back to modern.......our mana is rediculos too, scalding tarns are outrageous. I paid more for my tarns than I did for some of my beat up duels.
If I was to play Legacy, it would be one of the blue options, and hopefully run Grixis or something. :D

Heck, if I'm playing magic, its for counters, cantrips, and hopefully on my opponents turn, there is no appeal to anything else for me.
UR Control UR

Aazadan
Posts: 547
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Aazadan » 4 years ago

idSurge wrote:
4 years ago

If I was to play Legacy, it would be one of the blue options, and hopefully run Grixis or something. :D

Heck, if I'm playing magic, its for counters, cantrips, and hopefully on my opponents turn, there is no appeal to anything else for me.
Even those decks are considerably more permanent based these days.

Force of Will is pretty awful as a counterspell. It's only necessary to stop degenerate things. Miracles is heavy on spells, light on other stuff but the other blue control archetypes in the format are Stoneblade with 15 creatures/PW's (and positioned horribly in the meta), Grixis which is usually around 14, and BUG decks which are around 23.

Since you mentioned Grixis, it primarily runs at sorcery speed, and definitely doesn't play draw/go. A typical deck will be around 20 land, 18 flash/instants (8 of which are your forces+brainstorms), and 22 sorcery speed.

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Modern”