Speculation?

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duducrash
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Post by duducrash » 2 years ago

In recent years whenever a spoiler season comes a new synergy will be noted and exisging cards will skyrocke in price. Can we have a thread to talk about spoilers and finance? What cards to pick up before some new card makes them too expensive. I would make a post but Im not sure if its ok to post spoiler info

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Post by The Fluff » 2 years ago

I've been mostly picking up real estate.. err... I mean lands - particularly the triomes cycle from Ikoria. With the recent enemy fetch land reprint, fetchable lands that produce 3 colors might become even more in demand.
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Post by duducrash » 2 years ago

So it turns out some stores have an expiration date on their store credit. I had some store credit on a store I played years ago and received an email about it expiring. their stock was pretty limited I think they focus on YGO now so I decided to pick some random things I might spike later.

5 Foil Setessan Champion
4 Foil Storm's Herald
3 Foil Glorious Sunrise
1 DBL FOIL Glorious Sunrise
19 Cathar Commando
4 Foil Cathar Commando
5 Foil Infernal Grasp
2 Foil Promo infernal Grasp
16 reality heist
4 Foil Reality Heist
20 morbid oportunist
1 FOIL Outland Liberator DBL
2 Foil Outland liberator
2 Variatn Outland Liberator.

I don't spec on magic and TBH it isnt worth it to make the money. I just couldnt spend it on sleeves for some store policy and decided to take a little gamble with little to no buy in. I didn't particularly check cards playability and it is all from voices inside my head. I went heavier on foils because when STX came out I tought Storm-Kiln Artist was broken (still do!) and got nearly 100 copies for nearly 0.30R$ and 12 foils for 2.95R$ and even though they valued a lot its really hard to do anything with 100 2R$ cards. I don't plan o making money or anything just checking it eventually. a fun side project

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Post by PrimevalCommander » 2 years ago

This speculation is making it increasingly difficult to build new decks. I was interested in building a Isshin, Two Heavens as One commander deck, but sure enough a good handful of the useful cards for the deck tripled in price in a couple weeks. Really put the damper on the deck when it will cost me an extra $50-$100 more than it would have a month ago. This mad frenzy to buy up every card that has synergy with new spoilers really sours the whole process for me.

Overall I also like lands as a sort of investment. In that I'm more likely to buy a land that I don't immediately want to play just in case I need it later. With lands being very easy to include in a variety of deck types, that is my go-to. The Kamigawa channel lands are a good place to look, since any future synergies with lands in the graveyard will continue to make those cards better. Already picked up 2x foil Boseiju, Who Endures to play in green decks.

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Post by SquirrelToken » 1 year ago

duducrash wrote:
2 years ago
I went heavier on foils because when STX came out I thought Storm-Kiln Artist was broken (still do!) and got nearly 100 copies for nearly 0.30R$ and 12 foils for 2.95R$
Personally, if I'm going to buy a card on spec, I'll buy foils. Nonfoils get reprinted into the ground these days, so foils are the way to go if you want to maintain any value. My last buy was four more Bala Ged Recovery // Bala Ged Sanctuary foils because the opportunity cost to run them in G/x EDH decks is pretty low. One goes in Grothama, one goes in Chatterfang ... does it count as a spec if I plan on using them? I'm going to say yes because I plan on trying to use everything eventually. When that gets its inevitable reprint, the nonfoil copies will drop in price, but there will always be a place for the first foil printing.
PrimevalCommander wrote:
2 years ago
Overall I also like lands as a sort of investment.
Preach it; there's nothing sexier than real estate. Every deck needs a solid mana base (except manaless Dredge, but that's not actually Magic, that's ... whatever Dredge is). I will aggressively trade for lands almost every time.

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

speaking of lands. Any other legendary lands worth getting in Kamigawa Neo besides Boseiju?
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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
speaking of lands. Any other legendary lands worth getting in Kamigawa Neo besides Boseiju?
Otawara, Soaring City is played a bunch in modern. I think I see it more than Boseiju, Who Endures

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Post by The Fluff » 1 year ago

nice, which decks in modern or pioneer is it used in?
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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

The Fluff wrote:
1 year ago
nice, which decks in modern or pioneer is it used in?
UR Murktide, grixis shadow, UW control and Stoneblade in modern that I've seen

Phoenix in pioneer I'm sure but I dont follow the format

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

ok I got something for your speculation minds

so 2022 double masters has a extends full art for most of the rares.

my question is pretty simple I suppose. when is the best time to buy one? im specifically talking about the Marchesa, the Black Rose with the rkf art. but there are several where my mind is blown by the art. should I get one right away as soon as it posts since we don't know the distribution? thoughts?

:3

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Post by SquirrelToken » 1 year ago

The N82O Molecule wrote:
1 year ago
ok I got something for your speculation minds

so 2022 double masters has a extends full art for most of the rares.

my question is pretty simple I suppose. when is the best time to buy one? im specifically talking about the Marchesa, the Black Rose with the rkf art. but there are several where my mind is blown by the art. should I get one right away as soon as it posts since we don't know the distribution?
If you're dead set on acquiring it, I can recommend an article that I saw a couple months ago. It lays out the basics of pulling the trigger on moderately expensive cardboard. You can even skip to the end without reading it if you like; the author has helpfully laid out some takeaways at the end.

Without rehashing everything, I'd say that we don't know what supply will be like but it'll probably be higher than foil Meathooks. So I'd pick a number that you're comfortable paying, and watch listings until they hit that number. Watch how many listings you see and where the price chart goes. My guess is that it'll go down from release weekend - you don't want to be one of the chumps buying in at peak demand. Watch. Wait. And while you're waiting, read my article :-)

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

haha that's awesome. I really like that article. I suppose its an equivocal paradox. looks like cardkingdom has it for 15$. so I wonder what direction it will go.

what I've come to understand is that it sold well. I think it will be opened a lot. but im not sure what that means. so really im subject to whom opens it AND can sell it. I do order many singles these days as its my comfort food. the point is, is that I know there are many binders out there to shop.

the speculation for double masters is that there are a lot of really cool alt arts for a lot of the cards at different rarity. but the issue here isn't the regular rare print which I think in general will lower the over all "normal" print. but man there are some full arts that are pretty nice.

also it seems that it will be hard to come by as in if you haven't got it now you may not

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Post by RxPhantom » 1 year ago

The N82O Molecule wrote:
1 year ago
haha that's awesome. I really like that article. I suppose its an equivocal paradox. looks like cardkingdom has it for 15$. so I wonder what direction it will go.

what I've come to understand is that it sold well. I think it will be opened a lot. but im not sure what that means. so really im subject to whom opens it AND can sell it. I do order many singles these days as its my comfort food. the point is, is that I know there are many binders out there to shop.

the speculation for double masters is that there are a lot of really cool alt arts for a lot of the cards at different rarity. but the issue here isn't the regular rare print which I think in general will lower the over all "normal" print. but man there are some full arts that are pretty nice.

also it seems that it will be hard to come by as in if you haven't got it now you may not
$15 is much lower than I thought it would be, frankly. I want all of these RKF cards. Like, real bad.
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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

"Cashed out" on several of my Storm-Kiln artists today. Most were aquired at arround 0.20R$ and sold for 7,50R$+ 35% store credit bonus. This will become some lands, some dragon shields and a couple of cards for a new deck im toying with.

I think the only time I made money with mtg was when Jace was unbanned in modern and I sold everything in UW control because It spiked so much. Otherwise I really enjoy picking up cards and helping the hobby sustain itself

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

ive honestly been very curious about the innistrad double feature. I bought the regular sets and after some light reading double feature is considered a flop. which means buy in the dip. but short of meathook massacre the alternative arts don't seem worth it. I would buy a box for the future but it wouldn't take much for me to open it haha

I am curious as to what their variance and such are for some of these alt arts within the print run. ive noticed in passed sets I often Don't get the base card and end up with a full playset (or a one) of some weird art (like the dnd style) marchesa style will be the one I follow

ive recently been keen to creating a couple of current modern meta decks (yes I build decks from the internet) and in particular GR so the seasoned pyromancer can do me well. . .

anyway o7

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Post by SquirrelToken » 1 year ago

The N82O Molecule wrote:
1 year ago
ive honestly been very curious about the innistrad double feature. I bought the regular sets and after some light reading double feature is considered a flop. which means buy in the dip. but short of meathook massacre the alternative arts don't seem worth it. I would buy a box for the future but it wouldn't take much for me to open it haha

I am curious as to what their variance and such are for some of these alt arts within the print run. ive noticed in passed sets I often Don't get the base card and end up with a full playset (or a one) of some weird art (like the dnd style) marchesa style will be the one I follow

ive recently been keen to creating a couple of current modern meta decks (yes I build decks from the internet) and in particular GR so the seasoned pyromancer can do me well. . .

anyway o7
Double Feature looks like it's primed to be a very short supply set, but the flip side of that is that the demand just isn't there. I bought a box to throw in my closet for a decade, because my LGS was having a fire sale on them ($150), but the big problem is that you really have to hit one of the top foil mythics to really "win" the box. I think that I calculated that there were 8 over $100, but since I did that analysis Toxrill went from $120 to $220 to $80. Chandra, Dressed to Kill went from $300 to $100. Meathook is really the only super winner (and I'm super-glad that I got in when I did). Short-term opens are definitely a losing proposition. Couple that with a really bad draft environment and the only way I'm moving this box is in a decade when half of the cards in the set are spiking from weird new EDH decks or someone with more money than sense wants some older cards to complete a collection.

As far as showcase/borderless etc variants, in a normal set they're about 2:1 regular:special. Something like the Ancient Dragon cycle with two variants can be 2:1:1 or 4:2:1. I think that it's 4 normal to 2 PHB-style to 1 borderless. Numbers are from Ben Bleiweiss.

2X2 has two guaranteed borderless alt-art cards in each collector booster, so it really depends on how many WOTC decided to print. Probably will be slightly higher ratio than normal, maybe 1.5:1? That's just a guess, though.

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

its has been pretty cool. . .how to say. . .be a part of. . .what it was the speculation for double masters. the first reveals didn't really hype much but it didnt take long creating a raise in the distribution price (I guess cause I imagine hasbro doesn't change their price 2 weeks before release) this created a glut of possible resource and now here we are released and it has settled interestingly.

ive noticed on twitter people have been opening the collectors booster box and pulling some real cool looking cards. as cool as those cards are im not sure I can help or promote this metric. 4 packs for 250$. 4 packs. 4 packs for 250$ anyway.

I noticed that dockside price raised up to the market value. which can go both ways now I suppose. hopefully the new print qty lowers the overall price of all the prints. that way you can get your 5th or 6th easily since it goes in every red deck ever.

marchesa has been coming down in price since and I think Monday ill look to pick it up. so I guess im also falling into the understanding that it really is the best time to buy single. the Monday after release weekend. one thing to notice about double masters is there's no new cards. so hopefully it drives down the eldrazi titans so I can get a second set of the 3 kings.

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

ok once again its speculation time. Dominaria united.

my first inclination is that the flavor cuts are so deep that its going to take some time for people to establish what cards make out to be good or not. that being said I think the set is already out. ive seen people drafting it and opening collectors packs. so im thinking that im already to late to be Able to speculate what's good.

I do want a Karn. if I pull a Lilliana ill finally have a playlet. I want the weatherlight and Ratadrabik of Urborg. oh and as many of the full art lands that I can get my hands on.

and just a note. marchesa is down to 75 cents. I didn't to to well on that.

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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

Sanctum Weaver - I got two full art foils in a trade and they seem cheap. Im thinking of getting some more

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

ok once again its speculation time. the brothers war.

little update im doing rather horrible on my speculations so far. Marchesa (RKF) art and Karn's Sylex just are not holding up. im still hoping that the slyex does gain some traction. which is a nice segway

its hard to speculate. between the new cards that come in jumpstart, the commander decks, the sets themselves, and all the alternative card modes (secret lair) its basically at level 10 on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is fully inundated with cards information. this is or is not a good thing, it is what it is and personally im not against it directly.

except when it comes to just wanting all the cards. I don't like waving goodbye to loves lost I didn't even know I loved. I know deep down in my 5 5000 card commons boxes I love each and every one.

so without even understanding Dominaria united here's brothers war and get ready cause after this sets are coming more. all will be one and MOM and then the next one and then boom eldraine. eldraine is going to be that wafer thin mint (if you know you know) hahaha

so ok I don't really have a individual card. but prototype looks super awesome and I wouldn't be sad getting as many Arcane Proxy that I can get. the commands, though underwhelming are still commands, so ill take em.

one thing ill note is that I think this set will get opened. with the alt arts and then the retro artifacts. the retro artifacts are super cool. so basically opening any of them is good. you really are wanting a Mishra's Bauble cause pauper loves that card. the jumpstart dog is super good boi. last but not least you have the numbered cards. this will drive all the standard art rares into the dirt.

cheers

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Post by wildfire393 » 1 year ago

My call for BRO spec is Equipoise because of Disciple of Caelus Nin. It's just a matter of time before this combo shows up on Game Knights or something and then this $2-3 Reserved List card is going to spike harder than an olympic volleyball player.

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 1 year ago

once again its speculation time. Phyrexia all will be one

if you ever seen the movie city slickers, Curly talked about that one thing. I wonder if its the same thing.

cylex, yes there is one. this one though is more for fake fruit or potpourri.

Im on twitter and watch and notice the openings that happen before prerelease and it looks like norn got printed a lot. well whatever the ai puts in my que.

I want to speculate a little on the new mill Jace, the Perfected Mind . im hoping maybe that someone gets the numbers to work out. couple Archive Trap s couple Glimpse the Unthinkable and 15 on turn four may just be enough. I like hard numbers vs half the deck. if not im afraid turnt Jace was never really that good of a mind mage after all haha

Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler is the card I think will do work. im hoping to pull 4 of these and look forward to the next jund.

planes walkers at rare is a thing so settle in and see about the standard issue print cost. the hype (as you know) is about the alt arts. so winner winner chicken dinner those that like non foil standard card printings. wanderer will prob stay high but all fingers crossed, if it was only ok you wouldn't want it so here we are.

Vraan, Executioner Thane is good. the one card that really peaked my interest though is Venerated Rotpriest

remember that even snagging 2 of the same rare land in your prerelease pool isn't necessarily a bad thing

cheers

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Post by duducrash » 1 year ago

I think Tyvar, Jubilant Brawler and The Eternal Wanderer will boom in price. I like to get bulk uncommons that are really cheap at first. The ones I flagged were Tyvar's Stand and Cacophony Scamp

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Post by CommanderMaster999 » 1 year ago

Looks like are underrated card of the set goes to Mercurial Spelldancer

It's popping in constructed most particually… as a blue Dreadhorde Arcanist

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 11 months ago

once again its speculation time. march of the machine

im late to the punch and I apologize. :3

my only real speculation here is that it is not going to be opened in paper very much. battles are cool but not fun to open. yes there is the Ragavan affect, which I support wholly. im not confident a mythic rare in a special slot is going to help anything however. its about like a list card. I imagine the statistics to it are not the same however please allow a point, that its not going to drive down the price significantly and its held back by a set that's not very fun to open.

be happy if you pull a Faerie Mastermind
Rona, Herald of Invasion may be a sleeper, flip Jace was and is still a card that is not bad. this is 2023 flip Jace
the last sword, nostalgia led, you want one for nostalgia. :3

I hope all is well with everyone. im a mere 6 cards away from base deck hammer time. :3 its expensive so lets hope for a urzas saga and inkmoth nexus reprint.

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