Splinter Twin vs. Modern gauntlet testing discussion

TheAnnihilator · Post by **TheAnnihilator** » 4 years ago

BloodyRabbit wrote: ↑
4 years ago
23 lands and 7 cantrips is overkill. Too much air in the deck.

23 lands, 7 cantrips would be okay in a Kiki-Jace shell. There's definitely no need for such amount of mana, here.

I'm assuming this doesn't include Remand as a cantrip? I think 8 Opt/Serum is definitely overkill, 7 is fine, and 6 is also fine. I don't see a huge difference between 6 and 7 cantrips, really.

Spellskite is a horrible maindeck card, and I would NEVER side it against Jund.

Spellskite dies to Kommand (metà game full of it) and does literally nothing in the matchup. There's no way in hell we are comboing against Jund, and while it may be decent vs Wrenn it's obnoxious against Lily. Moon is actually quite bad vs them anyway.

Moon is INSANE against Jund. They only play like 2 basic lands. It stops you from dying to infinite Raging Ravines versus a Wrenn and Six and makes them choose between cycling Barren Moor or casting spells if they have the basic Swamp. Unless they float mana and either Decay or Trophy the Moon immediately, they honestly just can't cast spells. This line of Decay/Trophy is partially why Spellskite is worth bringing in, imo. Sure, Skite is weak to Kommand, but it also protects Moon, Ral, and Jace from Trophy if they don't have the Kommand or if you counter it. Everything in your deck will die to removal anyways, so Skite really isn't any different. In fact, even if you aren't trying to combo, you still have to win somhow, generally through creature damage -- meaning Skite forces them to have 2 removal spells for your creatures. It is awkward against Lili, but you can play around that.

As for combo or no combo against Jund, I'm honestly not sure. We're not a good enough creature deck to damage race. We're not a resilient enough combo deck to win that way. Our card quality doesn't match Jund's well enough to beat them as a control deck, especially with random Pestermites in the deck. I think a decent approach is to jam every threat into your deck post board and make them deal with ALL of it. Play the combo, and Moon, and Ral, AND Skite, AND Jace. Side out Pestermites, some Bolts, and just make your deck so threat heavy that discard is bad, and removal gets mismatched. Right before Twin got banned, I played a match against Jund like this and won it 2-1 after losing G1.

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

There is a slight case we should incorporate a Twisted Image mainboard, that's right. If this is the case, the only slot it's replacing, is one catrip.

Didn't like it in the past, in a field full of Affinity and Spellskite, I don't like it now.

I'm assuming this doesn't include Remand as a cantrip? I think 8 Opt/Serum is definitely overkill, 7 is fine, and 6 is also fine. I don't see a huge difference between 6 and 7 cantrips, really.

Obviously I'm considering the four Remands as a standpoint. But, yes, there's a huge difference between 22 lands and 6 cantrips or 23 lands and 7-8 cantrips.

Jund

They play 2 Swamp and one Forest, plus lots of fetchlands and W&S that makes sure they have both basics online. Let's face reality instead of kidding ourselves, it's only good at shutting Ravines (and Wrenn recycles the cycle lands, yes, they aren't forced to play one spell a turn, they can just cast Ooze/Tarmo/Tracker/BBE + cycling Moor).

I would still side Moon, hear me, but it's a very narrow card,

We definitely disagree about how to approach the matchup, btw. IMHO you should just cut dead draws and counter burn them. Before Twin was banned we were - statustically - 51-49 against them, and my games were in line with it.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Ok, I'm gonna send this list to BBD and get his feedback:

Decklist

Approximate Total Cost:

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Ok, BBD got back to me pretty quickly, lol. He said he'd probably play around with some numbers, but overall it looked like a solid build to him. He agreed that Jace should be in the board, he said just set up the main to combo. I'm pretty happy with this 75, [mention]gkourou[/mention] , you good with starting with this?

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

I'm in Eastern US time. Xmage should work, I'll just have to redownload it. I figure we can start at the top of the meta with Burn, here's a pretty stock list:

Decklist

Creatures

4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

4 Goblin Guide

4 Monastery Swiftspear

Spells

4 Lava Spike

4 Rift Bolt

4 Boros Charm

2 Skullcrack

Lands

1 Arid Mesa

1 Fiery Islet

4 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Skullcrack

1 Deflecting Palm

1 Exquisite Firecraft

3 Path to Exile

2 Rest in Peace

2 Searing Blood

3 Smash to Smithereens

1 Wear // Tear

Approximate Total Cost:

So does Burn want to change anything if Twin is legal? Maybe go up to 2 or 3 Wear//Tear?

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Sunday I get home from work at around 2AM your time. Monday I'm free until 11PM your time, then Tuesday i'm free whenever

cfusionpm · Post by **cfusionpm** » 4 years ago

Side note, the likelihood of Mystic Sanctuary stopping your turn 4 combo is about 0.17%, or about 1 in every 578 games, based on the mathematical odds of the Turn 4 combo, and Sulfur Falls one of your first 3 lands, and Sanctuary is exactly your 4th land. Just some food for thought. It's much less likely than say, having an opening hand of 2 or 3 cantrips and a single Sulfur Falls. May or may not be correct, but I think the feelbads of the possibility of it happening seem to overshadow how unlikely it actually is. It also looks super purdy in foil.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

You shouldn't multiply by the t4 combo % there. There's actually a 56% chance that one of your first three lands aren't an island, there's also the loothouse and mountain. Then, there's an 18% chance the Mystic Sanctuary is one of the first 4 lands you draw, which brings you to a 10% chance overall that you'll have a non-island and the Sanctuary as your 4th land.

TheAnnihilator · Post by **TheAnnihilator** » 4 years ago

I like the list. Will be glad to hear how it turns out.

cfusionpm · Post by **cfusionpm** » 4 years ago

Wraithpk wrote: ↑
4 years ago
You shouldn't multiply by the t4 combo % there. There's actually a 56% chance that one of your first three lands aren't an island, there's also the loothouse and mountain. Then, there's an 18% chance the Mystic Sanctuary is one of the first 4 lands you draw, which brings you to a 10% chance overall that you'll have a non-island and the Sanctuary as your 4th land.

The main point is that the "it doesn't let the turn 4 combo happen" is super rare. I might have to tweak numbers, but it's extraordinarily low. Low enough to not be a reason alone to disqualify. It may not be correct to play a copy, but to cite this as the specific and only reason not to play it (which is what I was replying to) is not sound, IMO.

Lord Seth · Post by **Lord Seth** » 4 years ago

What I am curious about is the possibility of Twin-Blade. A problem with Twin's tempo plan is that its creatures are kind of bad, but Stoneforge promotes a more immediate threat that demands answers, but if they expend the answers on Stoneforge Mystic, then they leave themselves more vulnerable to the combo. Not sure if it's worth it but it might be worth testing out given that Stoneforge wasn't something that Twin could run last time.

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

I do agree that the plan A in Twin is kinda weak, nowadays, But we're looking to test the most classical list we can.

If Twin would get unbanned, I would personally start with Jeskai variants (on which I was focusing in the last months before the ban, before Bianchi's win). More than that, I would actually try to make it work similarly to my Jeskai Saheeli list with whom I'm crushing my local leagues in the last few months.

Decklist

Lands (22)

2 Steam Vents

2 Island

1 Plains

1 Mountain

3 Spirebluff Canal → that can become Sulfur Fall, for whoever dislike it

1 Clifftop Retreat

1 Fiery Isle

Creatures (12)

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Seasoned Pyromancer

4 Felidar Guardian

Planeswalkers (4)

4 Saheeli Rai

Cantrips (5)

4 Opt

1 Sleight of Hand

Removals (10)

4 Path to Exile

3 Lightning Bolt

3 Lightning Helix

Permission (7)

3 Force of Negation

4 Remand

Approximate Total Cost:

Decklist

Sideboard (15)

2 Engineered Explosives

1 Ceremonious Rejection

1 Spell Snare

Approximate Total Cost:

There are two pieces to cut in order to present a '6-4' split. I suppose one Helix and one Pyro may go. But I can see an argument for keeping the Pyro and running 5 Dec/Pes, as Twin interacts very well also with Snappies and Mancers.

Thinking about it, Force of Negation has been stellar in this list even thought it cannot be used to protect the combo. I should consider this more accurately.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

cfusionpm wrote: ↑
4 years ago
The main point is that the "it doesn't let the turn 4 combo happen" is super rare. I might have to tweak numbers, but it's extraordinarily low. Low enough to not be a reason alone to disqualify. It may not be correct to play a copy, but to cite this as the specific and only reason not to play it (which is what I was replying to) is not sound, IMO.

Not necessarily just on turn 4, but it doesn't let you combo whenever it is that you find your 4th land drop, whether that's on turn 5, 6, 7, or whenever. And it's not just when it's exactly your 4th land, it's going to be whenever it's one of the first 4 lands you find, because you're not going to want to play it if you're not getting your value from it, or else it's just a bad basic island. I think the card is very good for grindier blue control decks, but I don't think Twin would want it.

Lord Seth wrote: ↑
4 years ago
What I am curious about is the possibility of Twin-Blade. A problem with Twin's tempo plan is that its creatures are kind of bad, but Stoneforge promotes a more immediate threat that demands answers, but if they expend the answers on Stoneforge Mystic, then they leave themselves more vulnerable to the combo. Not sure if it's worth it but it might be worth testing out given that Stoneforge wasn't something that Twin could run last time.

We'll definitely test something like this when we get to a Jeskai build, Izzet just seemed like the best place to start since it was the best build in 2015.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Ok, so here are the lists we're going to battle:

Decklist

Lands (22)

4 Flooded Strand

4 Scalding Tarn

3 Steam Vents

3 Sulfur Falls

1 Mountain

6 Island

1 Desolate Lighthouse

Creatures (12)

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Deceiver Exarch

2 Pestermite

1 Vendilion Clique

Spells (26)

4 Opt

3 Serum Visions

2 Spell Snare

4 Remand

Sideboard

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

1 Ral, Izzet Viceroy

2 Blood Moon

2 Force of Negation

1 Dispel

1 Spellskite

2 Surgical Extraction

2 Abrade

1 Fry

1 Anger of the Gods

Approximate Total Cost:

Decklist

Creatures

4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

4 Goblin Guide

4 Monastery Swiftspear

Spells

4 Lava Spike

4 Rift Bolt

4 Boros Charm

2 Skullcrack

Lands

1 Arid Mesa

1 Fiery Islet

4 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Skullcrack

1 Deflecting Palm

1 Exquisite Firecraft

3 Smash to Smithereens

1 Wear // Tear

Approximate Total Cost:

Let's talk about a sideboarding plan. For Twin, I used to side out clunky cards, like Cryptic and Charm, and sometimes Remand against Burn. Things in the board I would want for sure are Force, Dispel, and Spellskite. I could also see bringing in Abrade and Blood Moon if I need to board more out. So if Cryptic and Charm is an easy swap for Force, Dispel, and Spellskite, do we want to side out any Remands for some number of Abrade and/or Blood Moon?

On the Burn side, you want Path, Firecraft, Rending Volley, and Wear//Tear. Helix and Skullcrack seem like easy cuts, they don't do a lot in the matchup. I'm not sure for the last cut.

cfusionpm · Post by **cfusionpm** » 4 years ago

I don't agree with a bunch of that list, but you guys do you. Have fun!

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

cfusionpm wrote: ↑
4 years ago
I don't agree with a bunch of that list, but you guys do you. Have fun!

Which one, the Twin one? What don't you agree with?

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

I mean, I also disagree with several choices (especially in the sideboard) but it's not like we can argue about every little detail.

cfusionpm · Post by **cfusionpm** » 4 years ago

Yeah, I just prioritize different things differently, would have different lands, flex slots, etc. But without any meaningful context meta for the deck to exist in, it's all just big brain theorycrafting in a vacuum. A neat thought experiment and a starting point for whenever it's freed, but not worth quibbling too much over details yet.

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

By the way, about sideboard.

Given that I like less than half of the presented sideboard, I would do:

+2 Abrade
+1 Dispel
+1 Spellskite
+2 Force of Negation

-4 Remand
-1 Serum Vision
-1 Magmatic Sinkhole

Remand are simply awful. Cryptics are overcosted, but they are counterspells that don't get hit by Eidolon. I would shave one. Charm is an okay counterspell AND pseudo removal, no way you're cutting them. Sinkhole is strong in the midgame cause, again, it doesn't get hit by Eidolon, but two copies is too much, and Abrades are more than fine. Too many cantrips means dying fast while doing nothing against aggressive strategies. Six is fine.

If we had any more not overcosted creatures in the board (Vendilion Clique, Seasoned Pyromancer and the likes of them) I would bring them too.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Seems good to me. I talked to some guys in /r/lavaspike about how to board with Burn, and they said board out Cracks and Spikes.

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

Yeah, makes sense.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Let's shoot for 4pm your time, that's 9am for me. I might need some coffee before we start though, lol

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

Hey everyone, something came up for Gkourou and he's not going to be available to test for a couple weeks. In the meantime, you all down to theory craft some 3 color builds?

BloodyRabbit · Post by **BloodyRabbit** » 4 years ago

I played Jeskai for a long, long time, in all of its interactions (Wall of Omens builds and simply UR + Path). Won a dozen small tournaments in two-three years.

If it is needed, I can put up something.

Wraithpk · Post by **Wraithpk** » 4 years ago

The more ideas the better.

Here's my thoughts: T3feri is an obvious main deck include. The only question is how many. I also think the deck might want to be Twin in the main deck with a SFM package in the sideboard as a transformational sideboard plan. The things that Twin is bad against are generally things SFM is good against.

Plus, I think it's gonna be hard to fit both packages in the main. Even if we're going minimalist with both, SFM is a 5 card package (3 SFM 2 equipment), and Twin is an 8 card package (5 combo creatures, 3 Twins). 13 cards is a lot.

Your Community

Top Sections

Deck Formats

Cards & Previews

Delve Further

Community Content

Game Tools

Site Tools

Other Resources