[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)
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‖ Modern Rules
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cfusionpm With that on the stack...
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When you join the Dark Side and play one or more of those, it's not as bad. However, my fears are still there in that no deck is safe to buy into. Either it gets banned, or becomes irrelevant. There's literally no middle ground unless you're Tron or Burn.
That is exactly the reason. I would have to spend 400 euro to get Wrenn, FoN, Prismatic Vista and some others just to see Astrolabe getting banned and then I will never play Wrenn in the same deck with FoN ever again. Also with the COVID crisis my income is less so I am not in the position to jeopardize that kind of money.
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cfusionpm With that on the stack...
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Yeah, I spent about $35 for a single foil Uro during the crash, and that was more for Yarok EDH than anything else. Otherwise, I haven't spent money on paper cards in... months? Just not worth investing in anything. The format is destroyed and reshaped every few months... some "non-rotating" format, eh? At least MTGO is super fast and easy to both buy and liquidate cards. You can move dozens (or hundreds) in a matter of minutes.iTaLenTZ wrote: ↑3 years agoThat is exactly the reason. I would have to spend 400 euro to get Wrenn, FoN, Prismatic Vista and some others just to see Astrolabe getting banned and then I will never play Wrenn in the same deck with FoN ever again. Also with the COVID crisis my income is less so I am not in the position to jeopardize that kind of money.
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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I bought a foil Uro as well just a week ago for $45 to update my paper foil Amulet deck. I wish I had thought of this when I was preordering regular Uros on suggestion from my friend.cfusionpm wrote: ↑3 years agoYeah, I spent about $35 for a single foil Uro during the crash, and that was more for Yarok EDH than anything else. Otherwise, I haven't spent money on paper cards in... months? Just not worth investing in anything. The format is destroyed and reshaped every few months... some "non-rotating" format, eh? At least MTGO is super fast and easy to both buy and liquidate cards. You can move dozens (or hundreds) in a matter of minutes.
I hope that many of the staples of Modern will stay staples of Modern when paper starts up again and that only Lurrus gets banned. Then maybe there will be some sort of statement that alludes to potential bannings coming up, so at least people have an idea. Basically it would be nice to have an idea of what the format is going to be like. If Arcum's Astrolabe is going to be a big part of the format, it would be nice to know.
*Now that I've been watching the Professor on youtube, I recently saw an interview with Maro. It kind of put me at ease a bit about the move to digital. Maro basically said that they do not intend to cut out paper eventually. That's how they make their money. That last bit reassures me that paper is going to be important; the gathering, right?
for those interested.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
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The Fluff Le fou, c'est moi
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yeah, Burn is an immortal deck in modern.
consistent in performance, and wotc has not banned anything from it.
thinking maybe they should reprint price of progress to make burn a little stronger.
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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You wouldn't want Price of Progress. Imagine all Burn boards having 4 Dragon's Claw and 4 Kor Firewalker, among other cards. Burn would be way too good. For a moment, the Horizon lands gave Burn a big push toward being too good. But the meta adjusted. There is no world in which Burn wouldn't be a Hogaak type deck if they had access to Price of Progress. Thank God they don't.The Fluff wrote: ↑3 years agothinking maybe they should reprint price of progress to make burn a little stronger.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
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The Fluff Le fou, c'est moi
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@FoodChainGoblins
the thought of price of progress getting here crossed my mind because they already printed a conditional chain lightning into modern with skewer the critics, Who knows, maybe someday they would make a conditional p.o.p as well.
the thought of price of progress getting here crossed my mind because they already printed a conditional chain lightning into modern with skewer the critics, Who knows, maybe someday they would make a conditional p.o.p as well.
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread
- ktkenshinx
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Mini metagame update as we head into the SQ/Challenge/premier events of the weekend. We're at 14 unique events including Prelims for a total of 347 decks. Our Tier 1 cutoff would be at around 4.5% and Tier 2 would be everything over 2%. Here's our metagame snapshot before we get the next big group of results:
1. Burn: 14.4% (50)
2. Jund: 6.9% (24)
3. Humans: 5.8% (20)
4. Prowess: 5.8% (20)
5. Bant Snow Control: 4.9% (17)
6. Devoted Devastation: 4.6% (16)
7. Amulet Titan: 4% (14)
8. Hardened Scales: 4% (14)
9. Temur Urza: 4% (14)
10. Ponza: 3.2% (11)
11. Grixis Delver: 2.9% (10)
12. Ad Nauseam: 2.6% (9)
13. Dredge: 2.6% (9)
14. The Rock: 2.6% (9)
15. Neobrand: 2.3% (8)
16. Eldrazi Tron: 2.3% (8)
17. 5C Niv: 2% (7)
There aren't a lot of changes between this list and the larger metagame update I did last week. I'll probably do another article with a bigger update this week, as I have some time off work. That article will track specific increases and decreases by deck. The top six Tier 1 decks are basically identical. The Tier 2 decks are also virtually identical, but last week's 4C Snow Control is gone and Neobrand has moved up in its place. We'll see if there are any other big shifts after N increases.
Here's the metagame by rough archetype:
Aggro Decks: 36.4% (135)
AA Decks: 21.3% (79)
Midrange Decks: 14.8% (55)
Control Decks: 12.7% (47)
Ramp Decks: 9.4% (35)
Tempo Decks: 3.2% (12)
Combo Decks: 2.2% (8)
There's some overlap between categories which could make any individual archetype look higher. For instance, we could add Bant Snow Control to the "Control Decks" bin and it would jump to about 19%. In that regard, and even just looking at the table alone, there's a lot of archetype diversity here. Aggro remains a bit higher than we would like but is down from last week, which is a positive trend. Finally, here's the companion picture:
It's tempting to say "companion defines the metagame," but as I emphasized last week, I really want us to realize it's Lurrus specifically who defines the metagame. 45% of all decks are Lurrus decks. About 50% of all top-tier decks are Lurrus decks, and 52% of T8 decks are Lurrus decks. These increasing percentages suggest overperformance as you move up the metagame. The other companions see much more reasonable levels of play right now. The second most-played companion, Yorion, sees less play across the metagame than Goblin Guide, Coatl, Tarmogoyf, and many other "normal" creatures. Not Lurrus. I just don't remember the last time a single card saw play in 50% of top-tier decks. I also haven't done the math yet, but I'm confident there's a virtual 1:1 ratio of Lurrus:Bauble in this metagame too.
At the same time, it is important to realize companion as a mechanic is very strong. Of the 17 top-tier decks, 12 are companion decks. The remaining decks simply can't run companions without massive changes (E Tron, Amulet, Dredge, Ad Naus, Neobrand). A weird outlier in this is Humans, which continues to place well and continues to run fewer copies of Jegs; only 35% of Humans decks are running the companion at all. This suggests at least Jegs isn't as mandatory as some people are claiming. Unlike Lurrus.
We'll see where things keep going in May, but the number of decks running the Lurrus/Bauble package seems to be unprecedented in Modern's history. If that continues, Wizards will need to decide if they are okay with this new normal if it supports an overall diverse metagame, or if the locked 8 slots and overall metagame impact reduces overall diversity.
1. Burn: 14.4% (50)
2. Jund: 6.9% (24)
3. Humans: 5.8% (20)
4. Prowess: 5.8% (20)
5. Bant Snow Control: 4.9% (17)
6. Devoted Devastation: 4.6% (16)
7. Amulet Titan: 4% (14)
8. Hardened Scales: 4% (14)
9. Temur Urza: 4% (14)
10. Ponza: 3.2% (11)
11. Grixis Delver: 2.9% (10)
12. Ad Nauseam: 2.6% (9)
13. Dredge: 2.6% (9)
14. The Rock: 2.6% (9)
15. Neobrand: 2.3% (8)
16. Eldrazi Tron: 2.3% (8)
17. 5C Niv: 2% (7)
There aren't a lot of changes between this list and the larger metagame update I did last week. I'll probably do another article with a bigger update this week, as I have some time off work. That article will track specific increases and decreases by deck. The top six Tier 1 decks are basically identical. The Tier 2 decks are also virtually identical, but last week's 4C Snow Control is gone and Neobrand has moved up in its place. We'll see if there are any other big shifts after N increases.
Here's the metagame by rough archetype:
Aggro Decks: 36.4% (135)
AA Decks: 21.3% (79)
Midrange Decks: 14.8% (55)
Control Decks: 12.7% (47)
Ramp Decks: 9.4% (35)
Tempo Decks: 3.2% (12)
Combo Decks: 2.2% (8)
There's some overlap between categories which could make any individual archetype look higher. For instance, we could add Bant Snow Control to the "Control Decks" bin and it would jump to about 19%. In that regard, and even just looking at the table alone, there's a lot of archetype diversity here. Aggro remains a bit higher than we would like but is down from last week, which is a positive trend. Finally, here's the companion picture:
It's tempting to say "companion defines the metagame," but as I emphasized last week, I really want us to realize it's Lurrus specifically who defines the metagame. 45% of all decks are Lurrus decks. About 50% of all top-tier decks are Lurrus decks, and 52% of T8 decks are Lurrus decks. These increasing percentages suggest overperformance as you move up the metagame. The other companions see much more reasonable levels of play right now. The second most-played companion, Yorion, sees less play across the metagame than Goblin Guide, Coatl, Tarmogoyf, and many other "normal" creatures. Not Lurrus. I just don't remember the last time a single card saw play in 50% of top-tier decks. I also haven't done the math yet, but I'm confident there's a virtual 1:1 ratio of Lurrus:Bauble in this metagame too.
At the same time, it is important to realize companion as a mechanic is very strong. Of the 17 top-tier decks, 12 are companion decks. The remaining decks simply can't run companions without massive changes (E Tron, Amulet, Dredge, Ad Naus, Neobrand). A weird outlier in this is Humans, which continues to place well and continues to run fewer copies of Jegs; only 35% of Humans decks are running the companion at all. This suggests at least Jegs isn't as mandatory as some people are claiming. Unlike Lurrus.
We'll see where things keep going in May, but the number of decks running the Lurrus/Bauble package seems to be unprecedented in Modern's history. If that continues, Wizards will need to decide if they are okay with this new normal if it supports an overall diverse metagame, or if the locked 8 slots and overall metagame impact reduces overall diversity.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
- motleyslayer
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Lurrus is just everywhere online right now, last league I played I got paired against Lurrus burn twice and Lurrus Jund once. The lack of paper events just makes it awkward for them I guess
- ktkenshinx
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They banned OUaT off of almost exclusively MTGO numbers. It just took them about 2 months to do it. That might have been the fastest Modern ban (at least, that I can remember); not even Eye of Ugin got axed so quickly. And they did it with zero GP/PT events and only a few notable paper events on SCG/MKM/etc. scenes. It is likely they banned OUaT based on MTGO more than anything else, which suggests they could take similar action with Lurrus.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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Yep, it sure was. I actually feel jealous that I can't have my OUaT, while others are still doing all kinds of nonsense.
*Yesterday, I listened to the viewpoint of a popular Modern streamer on twitchtv.com. He was talking about Lurrus of the Dream-Den. He said that none of the companions needed to be banned. The only companion that was too good was Lurrus and it's played in terrible decks. I was thinking about what he said - Lurrus Burn, Lurrus Jund, Lurrus Scales, Lurrus Bogles, Lurrus UB, Lurrus whatever. Maybe he is right about this? The only Tier 1 deck that Companions have slotted into has been Uroza, getting Yorion in the deck. And I personally am not sure how much better it has made the deck. Players who have been on Uroza claim that it has gotten much better, so they're probably right about that.
Just an interesting take on Companions and possibly one that WotC takes as well. I still think that the idea of Companions is too strong, although I personally only see a dire need for Lurrus of the Dream-Den and probably Yorion, Sky Nomad soon thereafter. From there, we can analyze the others. Just my own opinion, but it's always interesting seeing others'.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
That is unquestionably flawed analysis by that streamer. Who was it?FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoYep, it sure was. I actually feel jealous that I can't have my OUaT, while others are still doing all kinds of nonsense.
*Yesterday, I listened to the viewpoint of a popular Modern streamer on twitchtv.com. He was talking about Lurrus of the Dream-Den. He said that none of the companions needed to be banned. The only companion that was too good was Lurrus and it's played in terrible decks. I was thinking about what he said - Lurrus Burn, Lurrus Jund, Lurrus Scales, Lurrus Bogles, Lurrus UB, Lurrus whatever. Maybe he is right about this? The only Tier 1 deck that Companions have slotted into has been Uroza, getting Yorion in the deck. And I personally am not sure how much better it has made the deck. Players who have been on Uroza claim that it has gotten much better, so they're probably right about that.
Just an interesting take on Companions and possibly one that WotC takes as well. I still think that the idea of Companions is too strong, although I personally only see a dire need for Lurrus of the Dream-Den and probably Yorion, Sky Nomad soon thereafter. From there, we can analyze the others. Just my own opinion, but it's always interesting seeing others'.
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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Messaged you.idSurge wrote: ↑3 years agoThat is unquestionably flawed analysis by that streamer. Who was it?FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoYep, it sure was. I actually feel jealous that I can't have my OUaT, while others are still doing all kinds of nonsense.
*Yesterday, I listened to the viewpoint of a popular Modern streamer on twitchtv.com. He was talking about Lurrus of the Dream-Den. He said that none of the companions needed to be banned. The only companion that was too good was Lurrus and it's played in terrible decks. I was thinking about what he said - Lurrus Burn, Lurrus Jund, Lurrus Scales, Lurrus Bogles, Lurrus UB, Lurrus whatever. Maybe he is right about this? The only Tier 1 deck that Companions have slotted into has been Uroza, getting Yorion in the deck. And I personally am not sure how much better it has made the deck. Players who have been on Uroza claim that it has gotten much better, so they're probably right about that.
Just an interesting take on Companions and possibly one that WotC takes as well. I still think that the idea of Companions is too strong, although I personally only see a dire need for Lurrus of the Dream-Den and probably Yorion, Sky Nomad soon thereafter. From there, we can analyze the others. Just my own opinion, but it's always interesting seeing others'.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
- ktkenshinx
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This is flatly untrue and unsupported by all available event data. OUaT propped up a chunk of ramp strategies that occupied much higher metagame shares before the ban. In that time, two of the top three most-played decks were OUaT ramp (E Tron and Amulet Titan), with various Titan variants and G Tron close behind. In total, this was a metagame which was about 26% ramp where 40% of top-tier decks played OUaT.FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoYep, it sure was. I actually feel jealous that I can't have my OUaT, while others are still doing all kinds of nonsense.
From March through mid-April, big mana strategies saw much less play than they had been seeing in the past, dropping from 26% to just 16% of the format. You two may not have personally enjoyed the play patterns during that in-between period, which is a totally arguable position. Modern may also have remained broken in a different way both then (AA, Uro, Urza, etc.) and now (Lurrus, companions) . But none of that means OUaT's ban was "inconsequential" to Modern.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
Hmm. Never heard of them.
I've been messing around on Arena lately, and Magic is just in such a weird state now.
Why do we have all of these? Have you played it lately? Its like when all the 5cmc Walkers were of the same basic template, but now its 4cmc Enchantments.
I've been messing around on Arena lately, and Magic is just in such a weird state now.
Why do we have all of these? Have you played it lately? Its like when all the 5cmc Walkers were of the same basic template, but now its 4cmc Enchantments.
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The Fluff Le fou, c'est moi
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I don't play Burn, but have been seeing people in Burn threads talking about adding seal of fire, to use Lurrus more effectively.
AnimEVO 2020 - EFZ Tournament (english commentary) // Clearing 4 domain with Qiqi
want to play a control deck in modern, but don't have Jace or snapcaster? please come visit us at the Emeria thread
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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Yes, they absolutely play that. (I watch a lot of twitchtv, mostly Modern)The Fluff wrote: ↑3 years agoI don't play Burn, but have been seeing people in Burn threads talking about adding seal of fire, to use Lurrus more effectively.
Where do you think is the best place to get info (hard percentage stats) like this? I don't remember seeing more than 13% Amulet Titan at any time on mtggoldfish.com. I remember being surprised at the time that 13% of Modern players could play that deck efficiently. But yeah, as much as E Tron saw play with a bit of Tron and a tiny bit of Titanshift, it would be around 26% in total.ktkenshinx wrote: ↑3 years agoThis is flatly untrue and unsupported by all available event data. OUaT propped up a chunk of ramp strategies that occupied much higher metagame shares before the ban. In that time, two of the top three most-played decks were OUaT ramp (E Tron and Amulet Titan), with various Titan variants and G Tron close behind. In total, this was a metagame which was about 26% ramp where 40% of top-tier decks played OUaT.
I personally didn't think that OUaT pushed E Tron that much; more that there wasn't much of a cost to running it over the upside. But many people feel that E Tron got pushed to Tier 1 by OUaT.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
- ktkenshinx
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I have to compile everything myself because most other sites use bad deck classifications, filter on static and meaningless date ranges, include curated events like Leagues, and/or have other major dataset issues.FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoWhere do you think is the best place to get info (hard percentage stats) like this? I don't remember seeing more than 13% Amulet Titan at any time on mtggoldfish.com. I remember being surprised at the time that 13% of Modern players could play that deck efficiently. But yeah, as much as E Tron saw play with a bit of Tron and a tiny bit of Titanshift, it would be around 26% in total.ktkenshinx wrote: ↑3 years agoThis is flatly untrue and unsupported by all available event data. OUaT propped up a chunk of ramp strategies that occupied much higher metagame shares before the ban. In that time, two of the top three most-played decks were OUaT ramp (E Tron and Amulet Titan), with various Titan variants and G Tron close behind. In total, this was a metagame which was about 26% ramp where 40% of top-tier decks played OUaT.
The best ramp decks were even more prevalent in Challenges and Premiers than Preliminaries, which is particularly concerning because the cutoffs for those larger events are more competitive. If we just look at the larger events in that time period, E Tron and Amulet Titan were each 10.4% of the metagame. Interestingly, the total ramp % was only slightly higher than in the overall MTGO metagame: 28% vs. 26%. Still a lot of ramp, and a big shift from then (when the two most-played decks in major MTGO events were E Tron and Titan) to now (E Tron and Amulet combined see less play than either of them individually in the OUaT days).
After OUaT got banned, E Tron went from the most-played deck in the MTGO metagame at either 8.4% or 10.4%, depending on if you're including/excluding prelims, down to 5.1% in the pre-Lurrus/post-OUaT metagame. Now it's down further to 2.3%. That's a huge drop spanning two separate periods of metagame evolution, which suggests the deck has both worse positioning and cards now than it once did. This makes sense from the loss of OUaT alone. Back when it was legal, 76% of all MTGO E Tron decks ran the cantrip from January through March.I personally didn't think that OUaT pushed E Tron that much; more that there wasn't much of a cost to running it over the upside. But many people feel that E Tron got pushed to Tier 1 by OUaT.
Interestingly, Amulet Titan has not suffered a comparable decline. It went from 7.5% or 10.4% (overall MTGO vs. major event MTGO) to 4% in the weird March/April pre-IKO period. Now it's still at 4% even after Lurrus arrived. Basically every single Amulet Titan deck was playing OUaT when they could (technically, 96% of decks), which suggests it wasn't as critical to Amulet's success as it was for E Tron. The E Tron drop was much sharper after OUaT exited. Of course, both decks are also probably on a decline because it's "cooler" to play a Lurrus/companion deck now and neither deck supports current companions. Both will probably uptick after the novelty has worn off, but probably not by much.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010
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cfusionpm With that on the stack...
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I mean, I'll try to keep my personal opinions in check, but a deck like E-Tron simply shouldn't exist. They are a pile of design mistakes wrapped up with one of the most obnoxious hate cards we have access to in our format. I guess I don't see much of a difference because G-Tron is still good as ever, Titan is still great, and my hatred of E-Tron and Eldrazi in general causes me to dance on its grave when anything bad happens to it. While the number suggests a decline, my personal interactions with it are about the same now as it was before. But again, it could be because I refuse to play Leagues.
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FoodChainGoblins Level 47
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See, the last stats that I saw for Lurrus Burn were 16.x%. I thought that was a bit out there, even if a high Burn metagame doesn't necessarily mean anything bad. So I went to mtggoldfish for the past week and Burn was only 10.1%. That is definitely not bad at all, even if Lurrus Hardened Scales surprised the heck out of me at 2nd (4.x%). A bunch of decks were at around 4%.ktkenshinx wrote: ↑3 years agoI have to compile everything myself because most other sites use bad deck classifications, filter on static and meaningless date ranges, include curated events like Leagues, and/or have other major dataset issues.FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoWhere do you think is the best place to get info (hard percentage stats) like this? I don't remember seeing more than 13% Amulet Titan at any time on mtggoldfish.com. I remember being surprised at the time that 13% of Modern players could play that deck efficiently. But yeah, as much as E Tron saw play with a bit of Tron and a tiny bit of Titanshift, it would be around 26% in total.ktkenshinx wrote: ↑3 years agoThis is flatly untrue and unsupported by all available event data. OUaT propped up a chunk of ramp strategies that occupied much higher metagame shares before the ban. In that time, two of the top three most-played decks were OUaT ramp (E Tron and Amulet Titan), with various Titan variants and G Tron close behind. In total, this was a metagame which was about 26% ramp where 40% of top-tier decks played OUaT.
The best ramp decks were even more prevalent in Challenges and Premiers than Preliminaries, which is particularly concerning because the cutoffs for those larger events are more competitive. If we just look at the larger events in that time period, E Tron and Amulet Titan were each 10.4% of the metagame. Interestingly, the total ramp % was only slightly higher than in the overall MTGO metagame: 28% vs. 26%. Still a lot of ramp, and a big shift from then (when the two most-played decks in major MTGO events were E Tron and Titan) to now (E Tron and Amulet combined see less play than either of them individually in the OUaT days).After OUaT got banned, E Tron went from the most-played deck in the MTGO metagame at either 8.4% or 10.4%, depending on if you're including/excluding prelims, down to 5.1% in the pre-Lurrus/post-OUaT metagame. Now it's down further to 2.3%. That's a huge drop spanning two separate periods of metagame evolution, which suggests the deck has both worse positioning and cards now than it once did. This makes sense from the loss of OUaT alone. Back when it was legal, 76% of all MTGO E Tron decks ran the cantrip from January through March.I personally didn't think that OUaT pushed E Tron that much; more that there wasn't much of a cost to running it over the upside. But many people feel that E Tron got pushed to Tier 1 by OUaT.
Interestingly, Amulet Titan has not suffered a comparable decline. It went from 7.5% or 10.4% (overall MTGO vs. major event MTGO) to 4% in the weird March/April pre-IKO period. Now it's still at 4% even after Lurrus arrived. Basically every single Amulet Titan deck was playing OUaT when they could (technically, 96% of decks), which suggests it wasn't as critical to Amulet's success as it was for E Tron. The E Tron drop was much sharper after OUaT exited. Of course, both decks are also probably on a decline because it's "cooler" to play a Lurrus/companion deck now and neither deck supports current companions. Both will probably uptick after the novelty has worn off, but probably not by much.
But mtgtop8 has Burn at 20.1% for the past 2 weeks, which definitely is a concern. That number is double what I saw on mtggoldfish and I don't think that just the extra week could have pushed it up that high. If that was prolonged, there definitely would have to be something banned.
As for E Tron, I really don't know much about it. I have 2 competitive Tron friends and 1 went with E Tron with OUaT at Regionals. He didn't seem super enthused about it, but I don't know. E Tron is a pretty bad deck to me anyway, which I've rarely had any problems beating. This definitely pushes my bias against the deck.
But I do play Amulet and Amulet certainly got a lot worse. FPawlusz is an Amulet streamer on twitch (and top 8ed those Regionals too) and he recently tried a list designated to beating Burn. He feels that it is becoming too prevalent, so even a good matchup for Amulet can be helped much more (since the percentage points above 50% is not high enough). I do not think that Amulet is in the top 3 of Modern decks right now; top 5, yes, even at a measly 4% played.
*I should also state that I realize that 2 weeks ago, Burn was overplayed on MTGO because it was doing really well at that time and this past week, people adjusted to it. I realize that small metagame jumps happen from week to week, especially on a platform as progressive at MTGO. (it's not like my FNM, where many people stick to the same deck(s) week in and week out)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope
- ktkenshinx
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Burn is at 14.4% for the past two weeks in Prelims, Challenges, SQs, and Premier events (N=347). Those other sites are including Leagues and/or misclassifying some Prowess lists as Burn. Incidentally, Burn + Prowess is at 20.2%, which is where that other number might come from. MTG Goldfish is a great site for a lot of resources, but its metagame statistics are inaccurate for all of the reasons I mentioned in my last post. In particular, any metagame update that includes Leagues should be immediately discarded as inaccurate. For a particularly glaring example of this, our recent League this week (https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... 2020-05-01) had literally one Burn list on a League dump that had over 50 decks. Even adding in the four other Prowess variants, this curated League would estimate the Burn % at 1.9% and the Prowess % at 7.4%. Burn alone has a higher share than both of those decks combined in Challenges/SQs/Prelims.FoodChainGoblins wrote: ↑3 years agoSee, the last stats that I saw for Lurrus Burn were 16.x%. I thought that was a bit out there, even if a high Burn metagame doesn't necessarily mean anything bad. So I went to mtggoldfish for the past week and Burn was only 10.1%. That is definitely not bad at all, even if Lurrus Hardened Scales surprised the heck out of me at 2nd (4.x%). A bunch of decks were at around 4%.
But mtgtop8 has Burn at 20.1% for the past 2 weeks, which definitely is a concern. That number is double what I saw on mtggoldfish and I don't think that just the extra week could have pushed it up that high. If that was prolonged, there definitely would have to be something banned.
Moral of the story: if a metagame update uses Leagues, don't trust or cite it.
Over-Extended/Modern Since 2010