[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

[Aazadan]

are people slotting Ragavan as a 4-of in their decks?

it makes me think.. is it so effective, people still use 4 of it even if it's legendary?

It's $100 each online and $70 each in paper. If be playing 4 if I could justify the costs. It's THAT good.

It is an absolute must-answer threat that will take over a game all on its own. For 1 mana, that is a dream creature for URx control.

I'm giving it one more week (maybe less, need to see the dates of events I want to play) and then buying a regular play set. I'm giving it 6 weeks after that and then evaluating if I also want a foil borderless set.

I think this gets me the best balance of playing it, and not paying over market rates, with some hedge against a ban.

[drmarkb]

DHA in Legacy was a 1/3 floor and got banned because it ran away.
Oko did the same. Running away with a game is a red flag for wotc.
The normal pattern is
(a) card gets released
(b) people get fed up as it does well, card costs $$$$$$, nothing happens, card is everywhere bar a few places, plenty of people argue over different bans
(c)3 months passes
(d) another card gets banned, one that is long standing
(d) 6-9 months after initial release the offending card gets banned in one format and allowed in another

[cfusionpm]

In other news, I am going to attempt my first paper FNM tonight in more than a year. Will be taking UR MurkeyBoi, but may swap out 4th Murktide Regent for a Ral, Izzet Viceroy if my 4th Murk doesn't come in the mail today.... Doesn't hurt that I still have my Mythic Edition Ral!

I don't have my finger on the pulse of the meta game right now. I would love for you to start a thread on the archtype

Honestly, if there's demand, sure. But for better or worse, it seems the entirety of traffic in this modern section is JUST this thread. =/

That being said, I think I had one of my most big brain moments ever during an otherwise pretty rough night.

Was against some Urza/Emry deck (no food), and had previously taken two constructs with Archmage's Charm. His boardstate was a tapped Urza, Thought Monitor, and Construct that had all attacked the previous turn. He was at 11, I was at 7. I attacked with the 2 Constructs and 1 Snap to put him to 5. He then played and equipped a Shadowspear to the large-enough-to-kill-me Construct, I had no other blockers. I had an Archmage's Charm in my graveyard, and a Lightning Bolt + Snapcaster Mage in hand. He had a Soul-Guide Lantern in play. (setup pre-final turn may have been a bit different, but that's how I remember it).

On attacks he swings with just the equipped Construct (currently a 9/9 Trample, Lifelink). I flash in Snap. He responds with Snap on the stack to exile my graveyard with Lantern. I pass priority and exile resolves. Priority passed back to me with Snap still on the stack. I Bolt him (with Snap still on the stack). Bolt goes to the now-empty yard. Snap resolves and targets Bolt. Cast Bolt to face for lethal.

This could have gone very badly had he acted differently. Had he allowed the snap to resolve, pass priority to have me target a spell in the yard, then exile, I'd be left with a blocker that won't save me, no Charm to flash back, and a Bolt that won't kill him. TIMING!

But having a look at the top tables, Monke + Channeler looks to be the superior build. Especially with Baubles and Lurrus. While I'm over here big-braining my 100+ combination choices between Cryptic Command, Prismari Command, and Archmage's Charm, those decks are like "Kill you. Game 2?"

[Aazadan]

On Ragavan- my opnions have changed slightly.
I have decomissioned my loan Legacy UR delver, because I am (a) not going to spend money on him when (b) he has a big ban on his head 6 months down the line in Modern.
It is Uro all over- why would you not play this card? As people start to play it , I suspect it will start to insidiously take over. It is like playing red and not playing 4 bolts- except bolt does not run away with the game, which is what got Uro banned.
I reckon Ragavan will cop Daze a Legacy ban and perhaps eat a ban itself in 6 months in Modern. Just a hunch, but then I have made a lot of money off these hunches.

It seems like DRS to me, it's a 1 drop that isn't useless late while warping the game around it. It's slightly more color pie friendly than DRS which makes it slightly more ok but I don't see how it's not at least a watch list type of card.

[cfusionpm]

This is just getting out of hand...

[Aazadan]

Have box prices adjusted? I haven't checked how pack opening value is right now compared to box price.

[Arkmer]

I'm glad I picked them up when I did... I really still don't think it's a $120 card. Why is the foil worth less? Are MH2 foils bendy? I've been avoiding them, tbh.

[Simto]

This is just getting out of hand...

outofhand.PNG

This is %$#% ridiculous. Seriously, where's the %$#% cap on this %$#%?

[The Fluff]

This is just getting out of hand...

outofhand.PNG

the monkey is made of gold.

_________________________

on another topic. Would like to ask opinion again on this. Do people think Lurrus would get banned?

asking, since I might be buying one soon..

[Albegas]

I doubt it. Since MH2 was released, Lurrus's presence has dropped significantly. Just looking at Goldfish's meta breakdown, the only decks using it at the moment are Death's Shadow decks, which are slowly being replaced with UR decks using Murktide Regent. It should be a pretty safe purchase

[drmarkb]

The finance of MH2 is complicated. Super complicated.
In this case the Monkey is primarily aimed at competitive formats, and foils are eschewed generally by such players.
Many cards are more EDH in nature, they won't see the same pattern.
The foil quality is all over the place too.

Fetched are a different case again.

[drmarkb]

Have box prices adjusted? I haven't checked how pack opening value is right now compared to box price.

Still worth it for CB for sure, ev higher currently than price. A lot of the set prices are not seeing much movement though.
That said, retro foil fetches are heading south, and plane Jane retro heading north.

[Simto]

the monkey is made of gold.

Queue Spandau Ballet

[The Fluff]

I wonder how high the price of the monkey will climb before a way to deal with him is found.. or he might get banned.
__________

@Albegas

thanks for info. Have out A Lurrus on my scg shopping cart.

[EonAon]

I wonder how high the price of the monkey will climb before a way to deal with him is found.. or he might get banned.
__________

@Albegas

thanks for info. Have out A Lurrus on my scg shopping cart.

Honestly if Gut Shot wasn't a thing Id be worried. As it stands I expect to see a price hike there.

[Bearscape]

This is the first time I've actually been priced out of playing the deck I want. I got my fetches cheap back in the day, I got my JtMS before he got unbanned... but Ragavan is now 65 a pop on cardmarket and I just refuse to put down that much money for it. What a frustrating feeling.

[robertleva]

This is the first time I've actually been priced out of playing the deck I want. I got my fetches cheap back in the day, I got my JtMS before he got unbanned... but Ragavan is now 65 a pop on cardmarket and I just refuse to put down that much money for it. What a frustrating feeling.

You have to buy em knowing they are going to crash at some point. Either they will ban it or some other strat will have to obsolete it. I can't really think of any other outcome for this card, and the latter seems like a long shot. Either way, this card separates the haves from the have-nots right now and I don't see it changing.

[Aazadan]

I wonder how high the price of the monkey will climb before a way to deal with him is found.. or he might get banned.
__________

@Albegas

thanks for info. Have out A Lurrus on my scg shopping cart.

That 1 toughness is rather relevant, just as the 2 toughness on DRS was a major factor in making it too good.

Gut Shot, Lava Dart, Forked Bolt, Electrolyze (I can dream, right?), and others are all great at dealing with it.

1 toughness was already rather relevant and I had taken to using Liliana the Last Hope again, I think her stock goes up even more here. I do think that Ragavan probably should have had a common creature type on it though so that Plague Engineer could keep it in check better.

With DRC seeing even more play than Ragavan right now, I'm not convinced he's the biggest threat in the format at the moment. But, the card is still quite good.

[cfusionpm]

With DRC seeing even more play than Ragavan right now, I'm not convinced he's the biggest threat in the format at the moment. But, the card is still quite good.

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest this may have more to do with the fact that Channeler is $5/1.5tx and Monke is $80/120tx.

There are likely TONS of people (myself included) that would be playing 4 copies if the cost wasn't so vomit inducing. Never mind the mere notion of buying copies in BOTH paper and MTGO...

[Arkmer]

It probably isn't worth much but the streamer AspiringSpike has made some suggestions that DRC is the best card in the set. How he'd truly defend that statement is a wonderful question, but he does say it in a few of his recent Izzet + Lurrus videos. Personally, I think DRC is close behind Ragavan, the card just does so much.

@Aazadan, you make an interesting point. I think we've seen more and more creatures with 1cmc and 2 toughness in the last few years than we have ever in MtG history or at least I mean that it's a growing trend, it seems a simple additional toughness has found it's way onto many things. I guess I'm just making a blind statement but WotC may be seeing 1 toughness as an actual drawback, even on 1cmc creatures, and is using it as justification to pump up some of the extra text on them. Maybe we start seeing more of this trend in other cards intended for higher levels of play?

[robertleva]

DRC is a 3/3 flyer for R with extra text that feeds your grave and filters hand. Yeah, this uncommon is going to get jammed.

[Bearscape]

Jeff Hoogland had the hot take that Mishra's Bauble is currently better in Modern than Gitaxian Probe would be due to Bauble's interaction with DRC, Lurrus and Emry.

Whilst I do think Probe would still be stronger than Bauble because of the immediate draw, it really is pretty close.

[Albegas]

The Probe comparison is pretty strong. No one positive trait of Bauble is overbearing, but each trait has become extremely relevant over that past two years. Hard to say if it's become stronger than Probe per se, but it's certainly following in its footsteps. If DRC decks, Lurrus decks and Kitchen decks prove to be too powerful, a Bauble ban would likely be a clean way to slow down all 3 of those decks while depriving Lurrus and Emry decks their draw engines.

[robertleva]

I'd love to see a bauble ban, the ways to abuse it will just keep increasing as more new cards are printed. It's the type of card they would love to ban because it's not a signature card, it's not a new card, and it doesn't outright destroy any decks if it is gone. Here's to hoping!

[Guardman]

I am torn on a Mishra's Bauble ban. On one hand, cards like Dragon's Rage Channeler, Lurrus of the Dream-Den, and Emry, Lurker of the Loch all do abuse it. On the other, at least for Lurrus and Emry, they are built in such a way that any cheap permanent/artifact that provides some sort of card draw/card advantage/card selection is going to be broken with them. It really seems like a chicken and egg situation since several things break Mishra's Bauble, but the things that break it are probably going to break other things as well.