[Official] State of Modern Thread (B&R 07/13/2020)

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Simto
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

drmarkb wrote:
2 years ago
Financially, with mh3 and beyond, Modern is going to be very expensive going forward.
I hope I'm dead by the time Modern Horizon 3 comes around lel.

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FoodChainGoblins
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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

There was an NRG (Nerd Rage Gaming in Illinois) 16 person 20-21 championship that you have to qualify for. It was Modern/Legacy split format. While the meta is not a "real" meta, it was interesting to see what many players brought. 4 Color Blink was the Modern deck with the most representation, including the eventual winner, who is a buddy from Southern California. :)

I'll see if I can find the list of the decks from 1-8

Modern/Legacy
1. Ivan Espinosa - 4 Color Blink/Elves
2. Tommy Tomsovic - GW Scales/GW Depths
3. Joe Bernal - UW Control/UR Delver
4. Rob Hayes - 4 Color Elementals/4 Color Control
5. Bill Comminos - Jund Saga/Lands
6.
7.
8.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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motleyslayer
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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

Ed06288 wrote:
2 years ago
I'd like to see Companion and Urza's Saga removed. Ragavan is problematic too but I can live with it. Wrenn and Six has also been problematic and I'm glad someone pointed that out, but I hope he can stick around.
I'd be open to a companion ban. Lurrus and Yorion to an extent have warped the format a lot. You're much better off running a companion and most decks will find a way to run one, even if they're just a free roll

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Albegas
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

If something had to be banned, I'd rather they just ban Lurrus and Yorion. They're far more present than any other companion, and they arguably have some of the least restrictive conditions to fulfill. If other companions were to rise up in the wake of their banning and take their place, I would be fine with banning those, but I'd rather they ban companions in waves rather than axe them all in one go, especially when only about 4 of the 10 really see use in Modern.

Still neutral on any bans in Modern right now, but banning all companions in one go seems a bit draconian for my taste

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

It is pretty clear at this point something has to and will be done about companions. Maybe they will get another errata increasing the cost to 5 mana, maybe the mechanic is banned all together but the cards are not or maybe just ban both Lurrus and Yorick etc. My feeling is that they are trying to figure out what to do and aren't in a hurry since paper magic is still pretty dead.

Ragavan is also problematic and format warping because if you are on the draw and don't have removal or you want to play your own 1 drop (Aether Vial, Hierarch, Expedition Map etc) you get heavily punished for it. It is thus no surprise decks like Tron, Spirits and Humans have disappeared from the meta. I think it is a good thing if non-interactive decks or linear aggro gets punished but Ragavan just takes it too far. It punishes everything, even interactive decks with a bad opening hand on the draw. Getting hit once by Ragavan feels bad, getting hit twice and it becomes very hard to recover from it.

Urza's Saga is too hard to interact with, is a free tutor who on its way provides insane board advantage. The drawback is so minor compared to what it offers its just not a balanced card in any way.

Wrenn and Six is just not a fair card even if he is played in 'fair decks'. A format without Yorion, Ragavan and Saga would mostly reset Modern to where it was 2 years ago and W6 however too powerful for what he provides as a 2 mana PW would maybe still somewhat be manageable until time makes him too strong again. He will always be that card that fuels 4-5c goodstuff pile decks and knowing what DRS did to Legacy it is just a matter of time W6 will suffer the same fate. Glueing the strongest cards from a format together in 1 deck is just the recipe for eventually homogenizing said format.

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motleyslayer
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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

the concept of not allowing companions to be used as companions but not outright banning them is an interesting concept. It solves the problem I had with them of always having access to them. I'd like that idea first, just the only problem I'd see is people just not wanting to play against them anymore, which would be a problem if that option didn't work. But I guess since bans can happen anytime now and are not in a fixed schedule, then WotC can just account for that anytime

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Simto
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

Are companions even being used in any noteworthy tournaments? (as in major events hosted by Wizards with a lot of attention/media) Are there even any noteworthy tournaments on the horizon? Do companions affect Wizards' income in a negative way too? Because money would be the first, and probably only, reason why they'd ban something.

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Albegas
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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

Simto wrote:
2 years ago
Are companions even being used in any noteworthy tournaments? (as in major events hosted by Wizards with a lot of attention/media) Are there even any noteworthy tournaments on the horizon? Do companions affect Wizards' income in a negative way too? Because money would be the first, and probably only, reason why they'd ban something.
Companions are definitely being used in Modern challenges and online events. Since Covid, there haven't been any noteworthy Modern events because you can't get enough people in a room to have a major one, but they've since shifted heavily to relying on online data, so it's a moot point to worry about Modern events not hosted by MtGO. That being said, less than half of the Companions are used in Modern, and of those, Lurrus and Yorion are by far the most impactful. UW doesn't really care much about Kaheera as far as I can tell, and Burn can't easily switch from Lurrus to Obosh.

Companions also can't really hurt WotC's bottom line anymore. They aren't Standard legal, so there shouldn't be a lot of people drafting Ikoria. Not only that, they're all rares that you only need 1 copy of, so they really aren't "chase" cards. Lurrus is less than $10 and Yorion is about $3. So Companions at this point really only matter on the secondhand market, which WotC only ever cares about when looking at reprints, not bans.

If WotC is banning anything, it'll either be because of the results of online tournaments or because participation drops so low that they need to reboot the format

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Simto
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

Ah yeah.. that was dumb phrasing of me in terms of "are people even using companions?" hehe, of course they are... It was more in reference to bans usually coming from big tournaments where one card or strategy are dominant or broken. But yeah, not really any of them around or coming up.

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

I feel that there isn't necessarily one strategy or deck that's especially dominant or really above anything else. There are just more "pillars" of the format, such as Lurrus/Ragavan piles, Expressive iteration piles that usually include Ragavan and channeler, cascade decks and Saga decks.. While there are different decks under each category, that's pretty much what modern looks like. I guess there's also UWx and 4c money piles as well

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

Modern feels pretty solved. The bar for cards to be considered playable has risen a lot. It is hard to brew when Ragavan is by far the best 1 drop, when Saga creates so much value on its own and when you can smash all cards into money.deck and call it a day. It doesn't leave many windows of opportunity to try and break the metagame because you can't ignore these cards or justify not playing them. The difference in power between the best thing to do right now in Modern and the second best thing has never been bigger. The metagame is just the same cards over and over again.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
2 years ago
Modern feels pretty solved. The bar for cards to be considered playable has risen a lot. It is hard to brew when Ragavan is by far the best 1 drop, when Saga creates so much value on its own and when you can smash all cards into money.deck and call it a day. It doesn't leave many windows of opportunity to try and break the metagame because you can't ignore these cards or justify not playing them. The difference in power between the best thing to do right now in Modern and the second best thing has never been bigger. The metagame is just the same cards over and over again.
I won't dispute that there are a few cards that are leagues above others (looking at you Modern Horizons 2). ;)

But I don't think the meta is solved per se. Hammer has been super good for a while, but Grixis Shadow and now 4 Color Blink appear to be in the top 3, if not 2 of decks. Now I could be wrong because I rarely get to play in Competitive REL tournaments (only local $1Ks that come up when my schedule and Covid regulations allow so), but here are decks that I see as viable.

1. Grixis Shadow
2. 4 Color Blink
3. Hammer

4. Rhinos
5. Living End
6. Burn
7. Tron
8. Jund Saga
9. Yawgmoth
10. RB Lurrus

I think the cards that would be examined if there were a ban list announcement pending ... Ragavan, Urza's Saga, Companions or just Lurrus, Ephemerate, and maybe Expressive Iteration. But no matter how you slice it, other stuff will rise. Even if all of these were banned, CASCADE decks and Yawgmoth are the top decks in the format. What would you do to have a potentially all right meta? (BTW, goldfish numbers for percentages are pretty spread out, but have increasingly become higher for the top decks in the past month.)
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

iTaLenTZ
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 2 years ago

FoodChainGoblins wrote:
2 years ago
What would you do to have a potentially all right meta?
This is the problem. I don't know. If you look at the data the format might be in a really good spot but I don't like what cards like Ragavan, Saga, Wrenn, Companions etc have done to it. Maybe they are now the new pillars of Modern and we have to live with that. Some may like it, some may not.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Another B&R is happening on 1/25/22, it could affect modern.

The concensus seems to be the biggest targets for banning are ragavan, urza's saga, lurrus/companion mechanic, and omnath. Other cards are mentioned but these are the most frequent.

I see the risk for those, but I'm not sold on any one specifically. Also, nobody mentions dragon's rage channeler but I think it should be discussed too. Something from hammer time is likely to be banned imo which could be any of a few cards.

What about unbans? GSZ, twin, artifact lands, bridge, or something else. This could be a good time to do something like that since people are dissatisfied but are not settling on a specific problem to ban. NO TWIN ARGUMENT, the question is could any unban help the meta or spark more positive enjoyable experiences?

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Post by Albegas » 2 years ago

Is there an announcement stating that the changes will specifically affect Modern? Only asking because I haven't found anything concrete after doing my own research.
And honestly, if something has to be banned, I'd probably only ban Lurrus, and I wouldn't touch any unbans until we know what the format looks like after a ban

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Simto
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Post by Simto » 2 years ago

Nah, they didn't mention modern specifically, just that "there are bans for other formats coming too" more or less. Likely standard and modern.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

I think with the clear power rise in the format only a few bans currently make sense but other current decks will just take over. We wouldn't be fixing the meta, only killing the top decks. It would take a MAJOR batch of bans to come close to returning the meta to something like 2020 or weaker. All that said, I still expect WOTC to use bans as the primary tool moving forward.

I support unbans, especially ones that could spawn entirely different decks, create very different play styles or are just underpowered now.
It won't happen in a wave like I would want but after MH2 I can certainly get behind unbans for several cards and some wouldn't even see much play.

I see little to no play today for AV, bitterblossom, wild nacatle, BBE, SotM.
Others have faired much better: SFM, JTMS, Valacut. Good, but not game breaking imo.

Who plays storm with success anymore? Try unbanning seething song.
The MH2 artifact lands spawned a new affinity deck but it's not top tier. Unban artifact lands.
Hoggak was a real proplem which caused 3 bans total. Unban bridge from below, it was the wrong card to ban in the first place.
I'm not afraid of hypergeneses, blazing shoal or GSZ. We have similar concepts already with glimpse of tomorrow and living end, I wouldn't expect infect to add shoal and change that dramatically, GSZ would see play but creature combo decks running tutors are not top tier right now and can be kept in check with interaction.

Those are the EASIEST unbans imo and I could even go farther. I wouldn't have been this aggressive 1-2 years ago but besides GSZ I don't think those would even compete.
I support twin but not pod, both of those would certainly compete and are therefore higher risk.

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EonAon
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Post by EonAon » 2 years ago

I really cant see them unbanning the artifact lands. The only reason affinity is not as top tier atm is the ETB tapped clause keeps the mana base from grabbing all the best cards from other colors. I mean with the correct artifact lands and using some of the tap lands its pretty much a near 96% art deck with VERY little drawbacks. Still can be hosed pretty simply but it would get way faster and more reliable.

I would get behind killing lurrus though, it's an engine thats warped a bit of how magic interacts with its cards. Its really a repeatable snapcaster every turn for some very efficant spells.

If we want a storm resurgence, I'd rather unban rite of flame.

Monkey...I really don't know where I stand on monkey. If it hits its a huge start for that player. If you never get it or get screwed on your other cards its useful but you're taking a beating.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

Strong decks that gets hosed easy is what I think we need more of. It would shake up the meta initially, then people adjust side boards so its dominance will drop, then as people readjust to the different meta they change side boards again, allowing the original deck to jump back into top tier again, and this cycle repeats. A real rotating meta. Dredge and affinity fell into this for a long time depending on grave hate and artifact hate prevalence.

This time I don't care what they ban really. I expect something out of hammer time, urza's saga or lurrus most likely. I like both those cards, but the problems are real.

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Post by FoodChainGoblins » 2 years ago

We had 67 players at our local $1K yesterday. Grixis Shadow seemed to be in full effect, foreshadowing that Lurrus could get banned.

I personally have thought that they were doing nothing for Modern. A friend said they're probably only doing Alchemy, lol, which I totally believe makes sense. So, my take is that they either ban Lurrus in Modern or no changes.

As for unbans, many of you know how I stand here - 4-5 things could easily come off. But WotC's strategy is not to unban cards; it is to print stronger cards to make people forget all about those cards and you have to admit it, it is slowly working. Each of us (that plays) knows there's newer players who really don't care about Pod or any of those older cards. They just know the Modern that they've become familiar with.
Standard - Will pick up what's good when paper starts
Pre Modern - Do not own anymore
Pioneer - DEAD
Modern - Jund Sacrifice, Amulet, Elementals, Trollementals, BR Asmo/Goryo's, Yawmoth Chord
Legacy - No more cards, will rebuy Sneak Show when I can
Limited - Will start when paper starts
Commander - Nope

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Post by motleyslayer » 2 years ago

Grixis shadow seems to have been in full effect for the past month or 2, as a lot of streamers are playing it. I still think no ban is best option, as I like modern as it is but t could just be clear a ban or few are coming. The forerunners to be banned are probably Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer , Lurrus of the Dream-Den and Urza's Saga . Maybe even Mishra's Bauble could eat a ban to try and cut off the card draw ability Lurrus decks get.. I've cast my fair share of baubles but I'd be pretty fine if that was the card to go. I like Lurrus as a card, so I'd be upset if it got banned but I'd understand due to how prevalent it is

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Post by MAGUSZANIN » 2 years ago

Now that MH2 is nearing the end of its print run, a monkey ban might happen now.

But even then I'm doubtful (and hopeful), since they hate banning 80+$ cards.

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Post by Tzoulis » 2 years ago

You guys will ban anything that either annoys you or you don't like.

They'll be idiots if they ban anything on Tuesday. I can see one or two unbans. They probably gonna ban something in Legacy, Alchemy/Historic and maybe Standard.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 2 years ago

I definitely think they will address alchemy and probably other formats. The Jan B&R used to always have a modern shake up. I don't push for bans very often but I fully expect them to address modern and they ban something this time.

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Post by drmarkb » 2 years ago

I would be happy with a Lurrus ban, but also happy if they don't. That said Legacy needs a ban, so I expect something in Modern if the Legacy ban is big. More to talk about is their normal philosophy if a ban is embarrassing and the Legacy one is- oops we broke Delver again. Thus I expect a minor unban or some tinkering in Modern somewhere.
Pioneer is safe.

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