Without speculating on whether Hogaak will be banned, there is likely going to be a point in the future when Hogaak is not the apex predator.
Modern Horizons, War of the Spark, and M20 have hardly been explored to their fullest due to the nature of the current meta.
Which decks/strategies do you think are poised to rise to the top in a post-Hogaak world?
Which decks/strategies will lose the most post-Hogaak?
Imagining a Post-Hogaak World
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robertleva
- Posts: 582
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Impossible topic without talking about bans / unbans.
Robert Leva
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Given that [mention]ktkenshinx[/mention] has already posted articles favorably tilted towards an EMERGENCY BAN of the card, I don't think it's likely to get you in trouble and I don't think this is an unfair discussion to have.
In my mind, we have four realistic possibilities:
1. Hogaak is removed
2. Hogaak is not removed
3. Hogaak is removed alongside another piece of the deck
4. Hogaak is removed, and they ban another card not from hogaak
5. Hogaak is not removed, but they ban another card or two from the deck
Case 1 is pretty straightforward, the week 0 aftermath is going to be a melee of izzet phoenix, red prowess, tron, jund, and urza thopter-sword, with UWx control for good measure. None of those decks have really held a target recently, and all are high-power lists. We can talk about what the fallout may be, but I suspect mid-term we'd see a return of non-path to exile removal spells, and a return to the linear killing machine metagame share dance of last year. Your left-field case here is that urza's thopter-sword is too strong to beat back, similarly to KCI; I find that outcome unlikely as the modern format has accustomed itself to artifact based boogymen in the past and been fine.
Case 2 is also pretty straightforward--metagame tightens down, the hogaak on hogaak metagame stabilizes, attendance drops, and we see urza thopter-sword and tron gain meta share.
Case 3 is highly dependent on whether that other piece is faithless looting or not. If it's not faithless looting, I think we see similar outcome to case 1. If it's faithless looting, all bets off.
Case 4 is most likely because they determined some piece of thopter-sword is oppressive. Not likely to have far-reaching impacts different from case 1 except for whatever deck got hit with the ban.
Case 5 again comes down to whether they remove faithless looting. If they do, all bets are off. If it's one of the other pieces of the deck, I would expect anywhere in the range of "bridge ban v2" to "hogaak is now a 2-of in dredge and nothing else".
In my mind, we have four realistic possibilities:
1. Hogaak is removed
2. Hogaak is not removed
3. Hogaak is removed alongside another piece of the deck
4. Hogaak is removed, and they ban another card not from hogaak
5. Hogaak is not removed, but they ban another card or two from the deck
Case 1 is pretty straightforward, the week 0 aftermath is going to be a melee of izzet phoenix, red prowess, tron, jund, and urza thopter-sword, with UWx control for good measure. None of those decks have really held a target recently, and all are high-power lists. We can talk about what the fallout may be, but I suspect mid-term we'd see a return of non-path to exile removal spells, and a return to the linear killing machine metagame share dance of last year. Your left-field case here is that urza's thopter-sword is too strong to beat back, similarly to KCI; I find that outcome unlikely as the modern format has accustomed itself to artifact based boogymen in the past and been fine.
Case 2 is also pretty straightforward--metagame tightens down, the hogaak on hogaak metagame stabilizes, attendance drops, and we see urza thopter-sword and tron gain meta share.
Case 3 is highly dependent on whether that other piece is faithless looting or not. If it's not faithless looting, I think we see similar outcome to case 1. If it's faithless looting, all bets off.
Case 4 is most likely because they determined some piece of thopter-sword is oppressive. Not likely to have far-reaching impacts different from case 1 except for whatever deck got hit with the ban.
Case 5 again comes down to whether they remove faithless looting. If they do, all bets are off. If it's one of the other pieces of the deck, I would expect anywhere in the range of "bridge ban v2" to "hogaak is now a 2-of in dredge and nothing else".
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robertleva
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Don't count out Hogaak is removed + a perfectly non broken card unbanned as a "we're sorry".
Robert Leva
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
There are a couple of decks I've got my eye on.
I am very interested to see how Urza Thopter does in a wider meta. It seems like the deck still has a lot of potential for growth/change. It's hard to say if it's current success is due to relatively little artifact hate. However I think that the room for development will more than make up for any losses in the face of more widespread artifact hate.
I'm personally tuning a phoenix-less monored prowess deck. It can have explosive starts but could be stronger in the mid/late game. I'm hoping that more people will start playing around with it and come up with something once Hogaak is gone and the focus turns back to Phoenix and Tron.
Tron seems to be in the worst position once Hogaak gets the axe. Tron players might be able to initially capitalize on the post ban chaos but once sideboards free up I suspect that Tron will be an obvious target.
I am very interested to see how Urza Thopter does in a wider meta. It seems like the deck still has a lot of potential for growth/change. It's hard to say if it's current success is due to relatively little artifact hate. However I think that the room for development will more than make up for any losses in the face of more widespread artifact hate.
I'm personally tuning a phoenix-less monored prowess deck. It can have explosive starts but could be stronger in the mid/late game. I'm hoping that more people will start playing around with it and come up with something once Hogaak is gone and the focus turns back to Phoenix and Tron.
Tron seems to be in the worst position once Hogaak gets the axe. Tron players might be able to initially capitalize on the post ban chaos but once sideboards free up I suspect that Tron will be an obvious target.
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robertleva
- Posts: 582
- Joined: 4 years ago
- Pronoun: Unlisted
Phoenix;ess mono red prowess? Isnt it just slower burn? TBH though I feel like normal mono red with phoenix is just slow burn...
Robert Leva
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Creator of Modern's 8Rack Deck
Deleting some irrelevant components, but just pointing out that my habits as a professional analyst paid off--I listed the key assumption, and I listed the impact. Can't be wrong if you specify the conditions under which "No F'ing clue" is a valid answer.Amalek0 wrote: ↑4 years agoIn my mind, we have four realistic possibilities:
1. Hogaak is removed
2. Hogaak is not removed
3. Hogaak is removed alongside another piece of the deck
4. Hogaak is removed, and they ban another card not from hogaak
5. Hogaak is not removed, but they ban another card or two from the deck
Case 1 is pretty straightforward, the week 0 aftermath is going to be a melee of izzet phoenix, red prowess, tron, jund, and urza thopter-sword, with UWx control for good measure. None of those decks have really held a target recently, and all are high-power lists. We can talk about what the fallout may be, but I suspect mid-term we'd see a return of non-path to exile removal spells, and a return to the linear killing machine metagame share dance of last year. Your left-field case here is that urza's thopter-sword is too strong to beat back, similarly to KCI; I find that outcome unlikely as the modern format has accustomed itself to artifact based boogymen in the past and been fine.
Case 3 is highly dependent on whether that other piece is faithless looting or not. If it's not faithless looting, I think we see similar outcome to case 1. If it's faithless looting, all bets off.
