[SCD] Drannith Magistrate

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DirkGently
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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
My guess is that if you said "having access to a commander is equivalent to drawing one additional card per turn" that would be closer to accurate than not.
Let me put it this way: if there was commander that had "eminence: At the beginning of your upkeep, draw a card" (and let's assume was uncastable) would that be a good commander? Would that maybe be the most powerful commander ever printed? I'd personally say yes. So I think you're way overestimating the value there.

I mean, people still get salty about Oloro gaining 2 life per turn. Drawing a whole card? fuggeddaboutit.

Either way, though, the problem with your analogy (enemies skip draw steps) is that blocking commanders can't completely lock your opponents out of the game, because any CA you get from commanders is "extra" card advantage. I think a closer analogy would be something like Chains of Mephistopheles or notion thief. Which are annoying but far from bannable imo.
Perm Decks
Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

Draw two cards is the absolute floor of a commander. The ceiling is probably like...prime speaker zegana? In terms of raw cards. Or perhaps nezahal or niv mizzet pardon?

So if the floor is 2 cards a game and the ceiling is 30 how far off am I really?

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Post by Wallycaine » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Draw two cards is the absolute floor of a commander. The ceiling is probably like...prime speaker zegana? In terms of raw cards. Or perhaps nezahal or niv mizzet pardon?

So if the floor is 2 cards a game and the ceiling is 30 how far off am I really?
The floor is zero. Many have talked about how their decks rarely plan to play their commander, much less multiple times a game. Or they only plan to play it late in the game, when cards like Drannith Magistrate are far more likely to have been picked up in one of the numerous wraths. I have many games with Ghave where I don't cast my commander at all, and my Arahbo deck actively avoids casting him. 2 cards is a reasonable average, not a minimum.

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago
pokken wrote:
3 years ago
My guess is that if you said "having access to a commander is equivalent to drawing one additional card per turn" that would be closer to accurate than not.
Let me put it this way: if there was commander that had "eminence: At the beginning of your upkeep, draw a card" (and let's assume was uncastable) would that be a good commander? Would that maybe be the most powerful commander ever printed? I'd personally say yes. So I think you're way overestimating the value there.

I mean, people still get salty about Oloro gaining 2 life per turn. Drawing a whole card? fuggeddaboutit.
Most powerful commander ever printed? My gut instinct is it would be I'm the upper quartile if it were 5 color.

The issue there though is that this leads to a raw power level discussion that we've established isn't that fruitful.

It would be a much worse aggro deck than edgar markov. A worse infinite mana combo deck than thrasios golos or kinnan. Worse tribal anything than most tribal strategies. Worse cycling deck than gavi. Etc.

It would be a great goodstuff commander. But it'd be hot garbage at more specific strategies.

And it's a bit of a red herring because it doesn't interact with magistrate lol :)

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

Wallycaine wrote:
3 years ago
pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Draw two cards is the absolute floor of a commander. The ceiling is probably like...prime speaker zegana? In terms of raw cards. Or perhaps nezahal or niv mizzet pardon?

So if the floor is 2 cards a game and the ceiling is 30 how far off am I really?
The floor is zero. Many have talked about how their decks rarely plan to play their commander, much less multiple times a game. Or they only plan to play it late in the game, when cards like Drannith Magistrate are far more likely to have been picked up in one of the numerous wraths. I have many games with Ghave where I don't cast my commander at all, and my Arahbo deck actively avoids casting him. 2 cards is a reasonable average, not a minimum.
Reasonable average? If you get to use the extremely small subset of fringe decks that don't plan to use their commander as the floor can I use thrasios drawing 90 cards with infinite mana as the ceiling?

1 card a game is the absolute floor, since you have it.

But 2 per game as an average doesn't seem right.

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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Most powerful commander ever printed? My gut instinct is it would be I'm the upper quartile if it were 5 color.

The issue there though is that this leads to a raw power level discussion that we've established isn't that fruitful.

It would be a much worse aggro deck than edgar markov. A worse infinite mana combo deck than thrasios golos or kinnan. Worse tribal anything than most tribal strategies. Worse cycling deck than gavi. Etc.

It would be a great goodstuff commander. But it'd be hot garbage at more specific strategies.

And it's a bit of a red herring because it doesn't interact with magistrate lol :)
I think you missed the reason I made the comparison. By playing such a commander, you'd be trading the ability to play a commander (since its uncastable) with 1 card per turn (what you think a commander is worth). If you're right, then it should be a pretty middle-of-the-road commander.

Bringing up very specific strategies (cycling?) doesn't make much sense to me. Gavi is a fine commander I guess (haven't played her cause, y'know, quarantine), but she only becomes fine because the entire deck is built around her. "draw 1 card per turn" commander doesn't require any effort to get value.

Now, granted, that means that for a heavy build-around like Gavi, turning off their commander may well be worth more than 1 card per turn (though as I've explained, "skip your draw step" doesn't work as an analogy), despite the fact that she needs to be cast, stick on the board, and have support to get value, because her ceiling within her deck is significantly higher. So vs really commander-centric decks with poor secondary plans, yes, Drannith Magistrate will be pretty powerful. But that's not every deck, by any stretch of the imagination, and those decks were already weak to readily-available spot removal, especially song of the dryads et al.

All that said, I think you're probably wrong about all those commanders being better than the theoretical eminence one, at least in a competitive sense. Relying on your commander is a point of weakness at a competitive level. Disabling enemy combos when you're drawing twice as many answers as them seems pretty trivial, and I'd bet any cEDH player worth their salt would happily trade their command zone for an extra card every turn.
Perm Decks
Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago

All that said, I think you're probably wrong about all those commanders being better than the theoretical eminence one, at least in a competitive sense. Relying on your commander is a point of weakness at a competitive level. Disabling enemy combos when you're drawing twice as many answers as them seems pretty trivial, and I'd bet any cEDH player worth their salt would happily trade their command zone for an extra card every turn.
I can only rely on my cedh experience but I think your understanding of that segment of the format may be neglecting how important combo outlets in the command zone are.

My experience with tymna based decks was also that it was so often much better than one card a turn that I'd be reluctant to give it up.

I do think you're right that its above the mean if its 5 colors. At 3c or less it becomes average or worse depending on the colors.

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Post by Wallycaine » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Wallycaine wrote:
3 years ago
pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Draw two cards is the absolute floor of a commander. The ceiling is probably like...prime speaker zegana? In terms of raw cards. Or perhaps nezahal or niv mizzet pardon?

So if the floor is 2 cards a game and the ceiling is 30 how far off am I really?
The floor is zero. Many have talked about how their decks rarely plan to play their commander, much less multiple times a game. Or they only plan to play it late in the game, when cards like Drannith Magistrate are far more likely to have been picked up in one of the numerous wraths. I have many games with Ghave where I don't cast my commander at all, and my Arahbo deck actively avoids casting him. 2 cards is a reasonable average, not a minimum.
Reasonable average? If you get to use the extremely small subset of fringe decks that don't plan to use their commander as the floor can I use thrasios drawing 90 cards with infinite mana as the ceiling?

1 card a game is the absolute floor, since you have it.

But 2 per game as an average doesn't seem right.
Sure, you can use Thrasios drawing ~70 cards with infinite mana as your ceiling. Now divide that by how many times the Thrasios deck doesn't go off, and instead draws a handful of cards off him. Now add in all the games where the player just never gets around to casting their commander at all, whether because they won without them, or because they died first, which means they got 0 cards worth of advantage out of it. Since, after all, we're taking into account in game value, not just "access". So 1 can't be the floor, since many games go by where a commander never leaves the command zone. And there's many other games where the commander is cast once, dies to removal, and is priced out of getting played again. An average is formed by adding many things together, then dividing by the number of samples. Thus, they often end up lower than people expect, because they remember the high points, and tend to gloss over the many many null or low spots.

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

Wallycaine wrote:
3 years ago
Sure, you can use Thrasios drawing ~70 cards with infinite mana as your ceiling. Now divide that by how many times the Thrasios deck doesn't go off, and instead draws a handful of cards off him. Now add in all the games where the player just never gets around to casting their commander at all, whether because they won without them, or because they died first, which means they got 0 cards worth of advantage out of it. Since, after all, we're taking into account in game value, not just "access". So 1 can't be the floor, since many games go by where a commander never leaves the command zone. And there's many other games where the commander is cast once, dies to removal, and is priced out of getting played again. An average is formed by adding many things together, then dividing by the number of samples. Thus, they often end up lower than people expect, because they remember the high points, and tend to gloss over the many many null or low spots.
Fine, the floor is 0 - in the mana screwed games where a player doesn't cast their commander, in eminence decks that don't ever plan to cast them, etc.

If the average is 2 cards per game per commander I would be extremely surprised. Computing such an average is basically going to be impossible, of course, but the number of competitive games where Thrasios or Tasigur draws 1800 cards using timetwister loops would surely skew it, or Gitrog monster combo draws some ridiculous exponential number of cards, etc.

Based off the games of magic I play I think the average is way, way closer to 1 card/turn than 0.2 cards/turn.

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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
I can only rely on my cedh experience but I think your understanding of that segment of the format may be neglecting how important combo outlets in the command zone are.

My experience with tymna based decks was also that it was so often much better than one card a turn that I'd be reluctant to give it up.

I do think you're right that its above the mean if its 5 colors. At 3c or less it becomes average or worse depending on the colors.
What are you calling the mean exactly? The average of all nearly-1000 commanders including General Jarkeld, or the mean of cEDH?

With a few exceptions, commanders be be traded with 1:1. Unless you're casting your commander more than once per turn, you're never going to outpace an extra card every turn in a control deck in a 1-on-1 game, especially since the cost quickly becomes unreasonable. Not to mention, any attempt to resolve a combo that comes down to a counter war would drastically favor the eminence commander. I daresay it'd be trivial to make a control deck that has a 80%+ winrate in 1v1 with this theoretical eminence commander. Just pack in a ton of counters and a few pieces of spot removal and you're basically invincible, unless they get a god-hand and win the game with counterspell backup on turn 2 or something. I'd say that's true of any commander with access to blue no matter how many colors. If we're talking boros then it might be harder to leverage I suppose, though white still has a lot of pretty efficient answers that can disrupt most combos. If you play tymna and it gets bolted by the eminence commander then you're getting absolutely slaughtered on both CA and tempo.

Once you're talking multiplayer, ofc it's a lot harder to think about power levels in such straightforward terms.

At any rate, while it's interesting to talk about cEDH, when we're talking about the bannability of a card, we're not generally looking at that. So I don't think looking at the ceiling for those decks is very relevant.
Perm Decks
Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago
pokken wrote:
3 years ago
I can only rely on my cedh experience but I think your understanding of that segment of the format may be neglecting how important combo outlets in the command zone are.

My experience with tymna based decks was also that it was so often much better than one card a turn that I'd be reluctant to give it up.

I do think you're right that its above the mean if its 5 colors. At 3c or less it becomes average or worse depending on the colors.
What are you calling the mean exactly? The average of all nearly-1000 commanders including General Jarkeld, or the mean of cEDH?

With a few exceptions, commanders be be traded with 1:1. Unless you're casting your commander more than once per turn, you're never going to outpace an extra card every turn in a control deck in a 1-on-1 game,

Once you're talking multiplayer, ofc it's a lot harder to think about power levels in such straightforward terms.
I mean the average level of a commander that sees any meaningful play outside of memes. It's really difficult to discuss commander power level obviously, because of color identity being such a huge part of it and then the varied goals of gameplay.

I do think personal howling mine guy would be one of the most popular goodstuff and drawgo commanders for sure.

I have zero interest in discussing 1v1 at all, it's not a thought exercise I think is very meaningful.
DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago
At any rate, while it's interesting to talk about cEDH, when we're talking about the bannability of a card, we're not generally looking at that. So I don't think looking at the ceiling for those decks is very relevant.
I said I wasn't gonna let you get me talking about power level again but remember you are the one who started talking about such and such being the most powerful thing ever printed. :)

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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Fine, the floor is 0 - in the mana screwed games where a player doesn't cast their commander, in eminence decks that don't ever plan to cast them, etc.

If the average is 2 cards per game per commander I would be extremely surprised. Computing such an average is basically going to be impossible, of course, but the number of competitive games where Thrasios or Tasigur draws 1800 cards using timetwister loops would surely skew it, or Gitrog monster combo draws some ridiculous exponential number of cards, etc.

Based off the games of magic I play I think the average is way, way closer to 1 card/turn than 0.2 cards/turn.
There's an interesting numerical phenomenon that probably has a fancy name that I might have learned if I kept studying math, but I don't think calculating the simple "mean" is really very useful here.

Think about it like this - say you want to ask the question "is it worth it to spend my life savings on lottery tickets?" For sake of argument lets assume that you only either win the jackpot or get nothing, but let's also be very generous and say that the EV is 1:1 - i.e. each ticket is $1 and you have a 1/100 million chance for a 100 million jackpot.

Your EV - the mean - would say that it's a fine idea. But in reality, $100 million isn't really a hundred million times better than $1 in terms of how much it actually improves your life. The guy with $10 million still gets to live a slightly-less-comfortable life without having to work again. The guy with $1 million is still in a nice cushy position. If you had exactly a million dollars, would you gamble it away for a 1/100 chance at 100 million? Obviously not. I doubt you'd even trade it for a 1/5 chance at a 100 million. Because the benefit you get from being fabulously wealthy instead of regular wealthy is nowhere near as how big the difference is between being wealthy and being broke.

To bring it back to magic, if, say, 50% of the time thrasios combos off and draws your deck, but 50% of the time does nothing, that means he's drawing you ~45 cards on average. But any player would take a guaranteed 45 cards over a 50% chance of 90 cards. Once you have a game-winning number of cards, the specific number is irrelevant, whether it immediately wins, or just barely squeaks you over the line. So the mean is not really very useful here.
I have zero interest in discussing 1v1 at all, it's not a thought exercise I think is very meaningful.
Well, but it's also kind of impossible to say what the power level of a commander is in multiplayer. Oftentimes the most powerful deck loses because people see the commander and dog-pile them. If eminence commander became that deck, maybe it loses every game, idk. Politics is complicated and not easily reducible, hence why it's easier to talk 1v1 if you want any kind of definitive answer.
I said I wasn't gonna let you get me talking about power level again but remember you are the one who started talking about such and such being the most powerful thing ever printed. :)
You said draw 1 card per turn was the average. If this commander is cEDH-dominant (I'd argue it would be) then it's clearly way beyond what a casual table is playing.

Hence, in a casual table I'd argue that your metric is even less accurate.
Perm Decks
Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by Airi » 3 years ago

The thing is, most commanders are powerful enough that I think it's fair for there to be a soft lock for them.

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago
To bring it back to magic, if, say, 50% of the time thrasios combos off and draws your deck, but 50% of the time does nothing, that means he's drawing you ~45 cards on average. But any player would take a guaranteed 45 cards over a 50% chance of 90 cards. Once you have a game-winning number of cards, the specific number is irrelevant, whether it immediately wins, or just barely squeaks you over the line. So the mean is not really very useful here.
I'll grant you average is a really sloppy word here. I think the 'norm' would be a better word. Statistically speaking we're probably talking more like the median being useful? I'm not a statistician though. Median is likely much closer though because it own't exaggerate the impact of the ONE BILLION CARDS effects.

As I reflect on the games I've played over the years, my general sense is that my commander has represented >= 1 card per turn in the vast majority of my games - for every false start where I just get a couple cards and lose there's a game where I'm drawing 30 and going nuts.

It's certainly far more than 2 cards per game for me, and most of the commanders I run into.
DirkGently wrote:
3 years ago
You said draw 1 card per turn was the average. If this commander is cEDH-dominant (I'd argue it would be) then it's clearly way beyond what a casual table is playing.

Hence, in a casual table I'd argue that your metric is even less accurate.
As above, I'll grant average is the wrong word. The usual experience for me is commanders representing more than one card a turn over the duration of the game.

What about you?
Airi wrote:
3 years ago
The thing is, most commanders are powerful enough that I think it's fair for there to be a soft lock for them.
You won't find any argument from me on the first half, not sure on the second half. I hope it winds up being OK :)

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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
I'll grant you average is a really sloppy word here. I think the 'norm' would be a better word. Statistically speaking we're probably talking more like the median being useful? I'm not a statistician though. Median is likely much closer though because it own't exaggerate the impact of the ONE BILLION CARDS effects.
median is definitely closer (obviously that gets weird since if you combo 51% of the time then the median is that you combo win, but it's definitely closer).
As above, I'll grant average is the wrong word. The usual experience for me is commanders representing more than one card a turn over the duration of the game.

What about you?
I do think there's a big difference between Golos and Feather that you mentioned in your other thread.

Feather, when it goes off, will draw you a ton of cards, absolutely. But if feather gets countered or dies or whatever, not only are you not getting the CA, but your deck is now chock full of absolute garbage. A feather deck where feather can't stick on the board has like a 1% chance of winning the game. So that's sort of the gambling analogy there, feather is betting the house, and sometimes she gets rich and sometimes she's penniless on the street.

Part of why I hate golos's design is that he really doesn't have to give up anything for his potential high-rolls. He's an OK 5-drop even without the activated ability, and the ability is pretty bonkers. You could stick golos into basically any deck and he'll probably be strong (probably not a feather deck though lol). He's kind of similar to the theoretical eminence commander in that sense - although he does cost 5 so if you're playing cEDH he's often not going to resolve, and his value becomes irrelevant.

Feather gets absolutely slaughtered by drannith magistrate. I'd expect Golos can shrug it off pretty easily in most cases.

As far as my three main decks:

Phelddagrif provides political advantages and an inevitable wincon. No direct CA, though the politicking can absolutely give CA in a sense (hey, you kill that creature and I'll give you hippos - or whatever). And just by playing him, it means enemy threats are more likely to go elsewhere. How does one count up the CA? Not sure.

Kaervek does tend to kill a lot of enemy creatures, so he is CA I guess. Kind of hard to pin down exactly how much since it depends on lot on how the table reacts to him. Probably kills 1 creature per enemy turn on average, maybe? Which divided across 3 opponents is roughly equivalent to 1 card per turn cycle? But that's a lot better because of the tempo they spent casting those creatures. And he goes face a lot and closes out the game that way too. But then something like 80% of the deck is dedicated to getting him out, keeping him out, and making him more powerful, so it's a big job to get that card/tempo/damage advantage.

Zirilan sometimes just goes straight for the win, so I'm not sure how you'd say that works in terms of CA. Does the specific number of dragons matter if the end result is everyone else dies? He can also get dragons like Hellkite Tyrant, Skyline Despot, and dragon mage that can give me CA. Technically since the dragon has to leave the battlefield, it's not a permanent card. But the main thing really is the tempo of getting a dragon for 3 mana and giving it haste, plus the flexibility of getting to choose the dragon. So I think it's a bit too esoteric to put a number on it. I wouldn't replace Zirilan in the Zirilan deck with "eminence: draw any number of cards on your upkeep", because that's just not what he does for the deck. But that doesn't mean he's better than that theoretical commander, just better in this deck.

Btw this is what I mean when I say it's really hard to compare a commander to a simple # card per turn.
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Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

It's super rough I agree. But I think if you spent a year polling people, tracking decks and games, etc., you'd find it's pretty close to 1 card per turn plus or minus a quarter of a card.

Especially if you started to correct for how certain things translate into cards and try to estimate the value of combo outlets always available.

That's pure intuition talking and I don't really care to dispute it anymore so we can disagree.

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Post by Airi » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
You won't find any argument from me on the first half, not sure on the second half. I hope it winds up being OK
I mean, I desperately miss tuck, so I'll take what I can get.

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Post by Wallycaine » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
It's super rough I agree. But I think if you spent a year polling people, tracking decks and games, etc., you'd find it's pretty close to 1 card per turn plus or minus a quarter of a card.

Especially if you started to correct for how certain things translate into cards and try to estimate the value of combo outlets always available.

That's pure intuition talking and I don't really care to dispute it anymore so we can disagree.
I think you're wildly off, and falling prey to basing your thoughts on the time the commander spends in play, rather than the many many many more turns they are not. I think if you actually did that study, you'd find the average commander spends far more turns off the battlefield than on it, and typically generates no value on those turns in which they are not on the board. So if the average commander spends 1/3rd of turns on the battlefield (not unreasonable, considering many early turns are spent ramping, and many commanders get wrathed/doom bladed off the board quickly), that means that in order to average 1 card a turn cycle of value, your commander needs to be creating 3 cards of value on every turn cycle they're actually out just to make up for when they're not out, to say nothing of making up for the times they get hit with a counterspell and never see the board at all. While there are absolutely commanders that can do that... that's by no means the majority of them, and certainly not nearly enough to make them the median.

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

I suspect you play in a high wrath/removal meta and are the one over-generalizing. I don't remember the last game where my commander was on the field a third of the game except maelstrom wandered and because I killed him on purpose.

I do play more card advantage heavy generals than most but its frankly all I see online.

One game recently jumps out at me where it was niv parun vs my kenrith 99 lands deck, intet, and ayara. Of the four of us niv drew over 15 cards of his ability, ayara about 7 plus 3 casts, and I recast kenrith several times and reanimated zirda once.

Intet player mana screwed and didnt get intet out til the end, deck was basically rug dragons that didn't care about his commander much but had he not been mana starved he surely would have cast it.

And this is fairly typical. I'd guess on mtgo 2/3 opponents are generating insane cards from the zone and of the remaining third the decks as are very often buildarounds like animar or gore claw.

In my paper meta, wraths and removal spam have long fallen out of vogue. People really hate removing commanders because they get recast immediately.

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Post by Wallycaine » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
I suspect you play in a high wrath/removal meta and are the one over-generalizing. I don't remember the last game where my commander was on the field a third of the game except maelstrom wandered and because I killed him on purpose.

I do play more card advantage heavy generals than most but its frankly all I see online.

One game recently jumps out at me where it was niv parun vs my kenrith 99 lands deck, intet, and ayara. Of the four of us niv drew over 15 cards of his ability, ayara about 7 plus 3 casts, and I recast kenrith several times and reanimated zirda once.

Intet player mana screwed and didnt get intet out til the end, deck was basically rug dragons that didn't care about his commander much but had he not been mana starved he surely would have cast it.

And this is fairly typical. I'd guess on mtgo 2/3 opponents are generating insane cards from the zone and of the remaining third the decks as are very often buildarounds like animar or gore claw.

In my paper meta, wraths and removal spam have long fallen out of vogue. People really hate removing commanders because they get recast immediately.
And how many turns was that game? If it was a game that lasted 8 turns, then you're still below 1 card per turn cycle per commander overall. And if you're casting Kenrith multiple times off just lands, I'd wager it lasted longer than 8 turns.

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

Its 99 lands and has like 15 lands that tap for 2 or store mana lol. I cast him on turn 3 the first time, then again on 5 and 6. I wouldn't take that deck seriously as it's basically a meme.

Of the three actual decks at the table two beat a card per turn by a lot and the one that didn't likely would have had he not missed 3 land drops.

Game was maybe 10 turns?

Given a land screw and my deck being a meme it's still way closer to 1 than .2.

Obviously not to say any individual game means anything. But every one of mine I looked at there were multiple people drawing a boatload.

There was one game winota drew enough to blow the curve for the entire table like 20 triggers by turn 6.

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Post by DirkGently » 3 years ago

@pokken I think a big part of the disconnect here is that you're counting commanders which effective more than one card per turn - which is super reasonable, I mean Lu Xun draws a card per turn pretty much guaranteed just as a random 4-drop with other upsides, and if you pay 2 more for arcanis you're tripling that - as meaning that having access to that commander is worth that many cards per turn. But the thing is - you have to cast those commanders for them to do anything. Magic is a game about turning tempo into CA and vice versa. The reason the theoretical eminence commander is so broken is that it costs nothing to get lu xun value. Sure, niv draws tons of cards once he's in play, but the expectation of paying 6 mana is that it's going to give you a fair bit of card advantage. Until you've cast it, it's only worth 1 card, itself.

Drannith magistrate does block you from playing your commander, but that's still only one card until you've spent the mana on it, which obviously you can't do while he's on the field. So you have to spend the mana elsewhere, which will potentially also give you card advantage. So it's really much kinder than, say, grave pact repeatedly killing commanders, since that not only kills their card but also the mana they spent to cast it.
Perm Decks
Phelddagrif - Kaervek - Golos - Zirilan

Flux Decks
Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
PDH - Drake - Graverobber - Izzet GM - Tallowisp - Symbiote
Brawl - Feather - Ugin - Jace - Scarab - Angrath - Vraska - Kumena
Oathbreaker - Wrenn&6

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Post by pokken » 3 years ago

That is an important consideration, for sure. I think I have said everything I want about this card and am content to wait and see.

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Post by Wallycaine » 3 years ago

pokken wrote:
3 years ago
Its 99 lands and has like 15 lands that tap for 2 or store mana lol. I cast him on turn 3 the first time, then again on 5 and 6. I wouldn't take that deck seriously as it's basically a meme.

Of the three actual decks at the table two beat a card per turn by a lot and the one that didn't likely would have had he not missed 3 land drops.

Game was maybe 10 turns?
And this is why I'm fairly confident you're wrong: because you're bad at math. Like, I don't mean that as a judgement. But in a 10 turn game, 1 commander drawing 15 and 1 drawing 7 is not them "beat[ing] a card by turn by a lot", that's barely scraping across the minimum between the two of them. When you add the big fat whopping zero from Intet, which doesn't stop counting because of mana screw, then we're looking at an average of around 0.7. And that's for a game you remembered to select because it featured a ton of card draw, which makes it highly likely to represent the higher end of the range. Its hard to take your claim seriously when even your own examples fail to bear you out.

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Post by folding_music » 3 years ago

I don't understand much of what's being said here. Why do we play a format that's intrinsically broken to the point where players beg for ways to counter its central conceit?

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