Thassa’s Oracle and the Case for Flash

[SP1R1TDRAGON]

1. I think from a political standpoint you're going to find it's impossible to ban 3 cards in EDH just because of cEDH. That would be like 10-12 percent of the banlist depending on your count. (3/25-28)

First I think that Cedh requires more bans than casual edh since Cedh players actively try to break the format. (imo there isn't really a need for bans in casual formats at all since people regulate their on powerlevel: it's not the banlist that prevents people from bringing T2 combo decks to a casual table it's the players themselves)
Secondly I believe none of these 3 cards see any play in casual edh so people shouldn't really get upset over a ban

Interesting that you say cEDH needs more bans. As a thought exercise, a large discord group created a new banlist strictly for cEDH, and removed over half of the current bans as they were "too slow" to be impactful. IMO casual needs the bans more than cEDH, as cEDH actively tries to be the best of the best. Players can try to stop others but there will always be pubstompers. Maybe your personal group has a powerlevel set between you but when you play with 10-15 different people depending on the night, its much harder to have a universal power level.

I certainly agree that having different powerlevels between players is a problem in casual playgroups, I just don't think banning cards that are considered too strong (like for example Paradox Engine) does anything to solve this because there are still more than enough similar or even more powerfull cards and combos out there and unless they were all to get banned (wich is neither wanted nor really possible) there will always be someone with a stronger deck in a casual table. So imo banning cards to reduce the powerlevel of decks only works when you're looking at the top tier Decks

[UnNamed1]

First I think that Cedh requires more bans than casual edh since Cedh players actively try to break the format. (imo there isn't really a need for bans in casual formats at all since people regulate their on powerlevel: it's not the banlist that prevents people from bringing T2 combo decks to a casual table it's the players themselves)
Secondly I believe none of these 3 cards see any play in casual edh so people shouldn't really get upset over a ban

Interesting that you say cEDH needs more bans. As a thought exercise, a large discord group created a new banlist strictly for cEDH, and removed over half of the current bans as they were "too slow" to be impactful. IMO casual needs the bans more than cEDH, as cEDH actively tries to be the best of the best. Players can try to stop others but there will always be pubstompers. Maybe your personal group has a powerlevel set between you but when you play with 10-15 different people depending on the night, its much harder to have a universal power level.

I certainly agree that having different powerlevels between players is a problem in casual playgroups, I just don't think banning cards that are considered too strong (like for example Paradox Engine) does anything to solve this because there are still more than enough similar or even more powerfull cards and combos out there and unless they were all to get banned (wich is neither wanted nor really possible) there will always be someone with a stronger deck in a casual table. So imo banning cards to reduce the powerlevel of decks only works when you're looking at the top tier Decks

Now this just may be anecdotal, however, I have found that some more casual decks can actually beat combo decks. For example, back when I was running superfriends, I could win typically turn 3/4. Yet some more casual decks beat me down simply by lack of creatures on my board.

I do see an issue with banning strictly at higher level though. While this may take care of problem cards (i.e. Flash) most of the problem cards at cEDH aren't a problem at most tables. But that introduces a lot of cards back into casual that would probably end up house banned or hated out of groups. Also, if you aren't playing against Flash Hulk decks, you aren't going to see why a card like Flash is banned.

[pokken]

I certainly agree that having different powerlevels between players is a problem in casual playgroups, I just don't think banning cards that are considered too strong (like for example Paradox Engine) does anything to solve this because there are still more than enough similar or even more powerfull cards and combos out there and unless they were all to get banned (wich is neither wanted nor really possible) there will always be someone with a stronger deck in a casual table. So imo banning cards to reduce the powerlevel of decks only works when you're looking at the top tier Decks

Cards aren't often banned for being too strong in casual, at least not as the only reason. There are generally several circumstances that factor in.

As an example -- sylvan primordial isn't that strong of a magic card strictly speaking. It was banned because of how its resource advantage interacts in multiplayer games specifically. Kind of similar to sundering titan only with ramp and the ability to take out other powerful permanents.

Paradox Engine got the axe more for its ubiquity in certain strategies combined with its time economy issues than its power based on what I know.

In short cards are banned in commander for being problematic, not necessarily powerful - a lot of the time being powerful in a particular way that inspires ubiquity is the problem, but it's not just power.

[HoffOccultist]

In short cards are banned in commander for being problematic, not necessarily powerful - a lot of the time being powerful in a particular way that inspires ubiquity is the problem, but it's not just power.

I agree with a decent chunk of this statement, but I think it leaves out something important: enjoyment. The RC has pretty much said they prefer only to step in where cards turn games unfun. Now, because fun is pretty subjective, they added Rule 0, and have been generally very conservative with the banlist.

This is a good thing, for all ends of the EDH spectrum. At less optimized ends of the spectrum, it means you have more cards available, and while there are some you might not like, you can usually come to agreement with the remainder of your group(s). At the more optimized end, this ban philosophy means that there are more powerful cards to be played than if the list was curated based solely on power.

With Lutri's day 0 ban, we know that ubiquity is part of the problem the RC looks at. And, to be fair, that's part of the problem with Flash as well--it's hard to justify doing something else if you're just looking to win. But most players, even most cEDH players I'd wager, aren't always looking to win--we're looking to have fun playing the game (though winning certainly doesn't hurt the having fun part). This is where Flash is particularly egregious. Because it's so good, in such a streamlined way, it reduces the enjoyment of deckbuilding, as well as the enjoyment of actually playing because of the decisions it forces people to make. Oracle and Consultation/Tainted Pact have the potential for ubiquity.

But are they as unfun? My guess is no. In a world where Consultation is the top deck (and there's no guarantees it would be), there are still many more paths open to build and tinker with decks, because Consultation packages have some additional choke points for other decks to attack that Flash decks do not. Likewise, Flash decks are largely in the same compact packages--depending on what colors you're in, you know what the plan is for Flash. With Consult, that's not necessarily the same. While the package is very compact (Oracle, Jace, Consult, Pact), because it fits in so many different decks, there are many different ways to get to that win.

In short, Flash is an issue--not just because it's powerful, but because it's an all-around miserable experience. That doesn't mean Oracle/Consult will be as miserable an experience just because it becomes "the best deck", because Flash has some unique traits that make it especially egregious.

Will it get banned? Who knows. I'd bet not, but I hope it does.

[pokken]

In short cards are banned in commander for being problematic, not necessarily powerful - a lot of the time being powerful in a particular way that inspires ubiquity is the problem, but it's not just power.

I agree with a decent chunk of this statement, but I think it leaves out something important: enjoyment. The RC has pretty much said they prefer only to step in where cards turn games unfun. Now, because fun is pretty subjective, they added Rule 0, and have been generally very conservative with the banlist.

I think you're missing some nuance in the statement; 'problematic' includes hurting fun. The connection between 'powerful in a certain way that inspires ubiquity' is a reference to how the power level of a card impacts bannings, not to say that ubiquity is all that determines whether something is problematic.

Obviously Iona is neither powerful nor ubiquitous; just considered problematic.

Prophet of Kruphix was powerful in a certain way that inspired ubiquity but also problematic in other ways (created undesirable game states, was the focal point of all interaction once it dropped, etc.).

This is where Flash is particularly egregious. Because it's so good, in such a streamlined way, it reduces the enjoyment of deckbuilding, as well as the enjoyment of actually playing because of the decisions it forces people to make. Oracle and Consultation/Tainted Pact have the potential for ubiquity.

But are they as unfun? My guess is no. In a world where Consultation is the top deck (and there's no guarantees it would be), there are still many more paths open to build and tinker with decks, because Consultation packages have some additional choke points for other decks to attack that Flash decks do not. Likewise, Flash decks are largely in the same compact packages--depending on what colors you're in, you know what the plan is for Flash. With Consult, that's not necessarily the same. While the package is very compact (Oracle, Jace, Consult, Pact), because it fits in so many different decks, there are many different ways to get to that win.

In short, Flash is an issue--not just because it's powerful, but because it's an all-around miserable experience. That doesn't mean Oracle/Consult will be as miserable an experience just because it becomes "the best deck", because Flash has some unique traits that make it especially egregious.

Will it get banned? Who knows. I'd bet not, but I hope it does.

Honestly I find losing to flash and losing to "cast oracle, etb, hold priority cast pact" to be pretty close to equivalent. They're both so efficient manawise that people just stockpile them until they have 3 or 4 counterspells to back them up and then force them through.

Could just be me though. I find the ability to win on the stack for 3 mana or 4 mana to be the real problematic thing, and I think as long as it's as efficient as it is people are going to gravitate toward that. It's got a much smaller attack surface than, say, Najeela attack steps combo.

[HoffOccultist]

I think you're missing some nuance in the statement; 'problematic' includes hurting fun. The connection between 'powerful in a certain way that inspires ubiquity' is a reference to how the power level of a card impacts bannings, not to say that ubiquity is all that determines whether something is problematic.

Obviously Iona is neither powerful nor ubiquitous; just considered problematic.

Prophet of Kruphix was powerful in a certain way that inspired ubiquity but also problematic in other ways (created undesirable game states, was the focal point of all interaction once it dropped, etc.).

Sure, that's fair. Don't disagree there.

Honestly I find losing to flash and losing to "cast oracle, etb, hold priority cast pact" to be pretty close to equivalent. They're both so efficient manawise that people just stockpile them until they have 3 or 4 counterspells to back them up and then force them through.

Could just be me though. I find the ability to win on the stack for 3 mana or 4 mana to be the real problematic thing, and I think as long as it's as efficient as it is people are going to gravitate toward that. It's got a much smaller attack surface than, say, Najeela attack steps combo.

While I think you're right that Najeela and similar decks have far more ways to attack them, I think that part of the current playstyle of Consult being "gather pieces and interaction, then vomit a win" is a side effect of the influence Flash has on the format. For example, most Consult-centric decks are fairly weak to stax, but stax in a Flash heavy meta just allows Flash to go off earlier. Additionally, the sorcery speed nature of Consult wins in a single turn allows other players to build board presence slightly more easily, which can pressure the interaction Consult decks have available. If a Consult player tries to go off over two turns--perhaps with a Tainted Pact only leaving a couple cards to set up Oracle--there is an inherent risk there because if they do get stopped, they will just lose. This is contrary to Flash, where if the Flash gets stopped, nothing is really lost because all the individual pieces of a Hulk pile are easy enough to assemble and cast with backup that there's no real fear in just trying to go for it (unless you're in a multi Flash pod, in which case the fear is a Flash over top).

I'm not saying that Consult isn't good. But I think that any calls for it, or Tainted Pact, or Oracle to be banned alongside (or instead of) Flash are misguided due to the warping of cEDH around Flash at the current time.

[pokken]

While I think you're right that Najeela and similar decks have far more ways to attack them, I think that part of the current playstyle of Consult being "gather pieces and interaction, then vomit a win" is a side effect of the influence Flash has on the format. For example, most Consult-centric decks are fairly weak to stax, but stax in a Flash heavy meta just allows Flash to go off earlier. Additionally, the sorcery speed nature of Consult wins in a single turn allows other players to build board presence slightly more easily, which can pressure the interaction Consult decks have available. If a Consult player tries to go off over two turns--perhaps with a Tainted Pact only leaving a couple cards to set up Oracle--there is an inherent risk there because if they do get stopped, they will just lose. This is contrary to Flash, where if the Flash gets stopped, nothing is really lost because all the individual pieces of a Hulk pile are easy enough to assemble and cast with backup that there's no real fear in just trying to go for it (unless you're in a multi Flash pod, in which case the fear is a Flash over top).

I'm not saying that Consult isn't good. But I think that any calls for it, or Tainted Pact, or Oracle to be banned alongside (or instead of) Flash are misguided due to the warping of cEDH around Flash at the current time.

I've heard that stax argument before and I'm not sure I agree with it; it just means one of the interaction pieces stockpiled needs to be blink of an eye or cyclonic rift or chain of vapor or whatever, and right now the consult decks don't have room for those because they're trying to fight Flash.

Generally speaking, before Oracle, the format was largely starting to homogenize toward consult wins -- CST and Kess being the biggest two, but also Inalla on spellseeker line and Najeela often played either consult or flash hulk (though I saw more consult because it was less slot greedy than flash hulk).

My thinking is not so much that they should be banned as well but more that we will likely find that the homogenization of the format is not really flash related but related to the increased attention cEDH has gotten. And because of that, banning anything in CEDH is not going to have the instantaneous return to the golden days effect that people think it will.

CEDH has moved toward basically the same 80 card simic shell vs. the same 80 card grixis shell, and it was well on its way to that independently of flash.

[HoffOccultist]

I've heard that stax argument before and I'm not sure I agree with it; it just means one of the interaction pieces stockpiled needs to be blink of an eye or cyclonic rift or chain of vapor or whatever, and right now the consult decks don't have room for those because they're trying to fight Flash.

Generally speaking, before Oracle, the format was largely starting to homogenize toward consult wins -- CST and Kess being the biggest two, but also Inalla on spellseeker line and Najeela often played either consult or flash hulk (though I saw more consult because it was less slot greedy than flash hulk).

My thinking is not so much that they should be banned as well but more that we will likely find that the homogenization of the format is not really flash related but related to the increased attention cEDH has gotten. And because of that, banning anything in CEDH is not going to have the instantaneous return to the golden days effect that people think it will.

CEDH has moved toward basically the same 80 card simic shell vs. the same 80 card grixis shell, and it was well on its way to that independently of flash.

I think a large part of the homogenization toward Consult prior to Oracle has to do with it being a strategy deliberately developed to fight Flash, because stax decks were slowly dying off (and now pretty much have). I certainly could be wrong, but seeing pods with stax against Consult decks without a Flash deck at the table, I think there's a reasonable chance that Consult decks are kept in check by other things in the format without becoming an issue.

As to the larger issue of homogenization, I think that's always going to happen some within a format with such a massive pool of playable cards, and the existence of the partners really exacerbates it because other commanders have to be so high above rate to be worth not having access to 4 colors that it pushes a lot of interesting stuff out of the main line of playability. That said, plenty of things still win even with Flash around, even if they're not tier 1. And I'd bet without Flash, even more things would be viable.

[pokken]

As to the larger issue of homogenization, I think that's always going to happen some within a format with such a massive pool of playable cards, and the existence of the partners really exacerbates it because other commanders have to be so high above rate to be worth not having access to 4 colors that it pushes a lot of interesting stuff out of the main line of playability. That said, plenty of things still win even with Flash around, even if they're not tier 1. And I'd bet without Flash, even more things would be viable.

I think getting rid of flash does move the needle a little, but I disagree with most of the CEDH community about how much it moves it. I generally think the days when it was not viewed as required to play blue are behind us.

I hope you're right that if they ban Flash it actually does make more decks tier 1, but I don't think it's actually the case. I think it shrinks the distance between tier 1 and 2 a little (or 0 and 1, depending on whether you are categorizing flash as tier 1) but that's it.

Obviously room to disagree on this, and I'm far from the most experienced CEDH player. I personally felt a lot of pressure to not play Gitrog long before the new generation of Flash - it's just too risky to not be a blue player in a format with so many stack wins.

[UnNamed1]

I think getting rid of flash does move the needle a little, but I disagree with most of the CEDH community about how much it moves it. I generally think the days when it was not viewed as required to play blue are behind us.

I agree here, except that without hulk providing all the pieces to the puzzle, flash does little to nothing. I do not see a way that hulk won't be a problem, even without flash.

On the second point, blue just offers too much in a multiplayer format. But personally, I enjoy seeing varieties of color's. I was having an argument about Oracle over lunch and they quoted exactly that oracle is an issue because it forces "play blue or lose". Personally, I don't feel that way but blue offers a suite of counterspells that no other color offers. That's also just blue's color "identity". Oracle is good, but not ban worthy. Top, Citadel, and combat still win against non Flash-Hulk decks.

[pokken]

I agree here, except that without hulk providing all the pieces to the puzzle, flash does little to nothing. I do not see a way that hulk won't be a problem, even without flash.

I don't think hulk remains competitive without flash; the package already takes a lot of bricks (flash, hulk, 2x breakfast guys), which is way more than you want. Then combine having to discard it and reanimate it, that gets to be a lot of duds.

More than likely commander combos and consultation/scepter become the go to win cons. You've got stuff like Najeela-Druids' Repository, etc. Food chain also takes a step up, and at least that can be interacted with somewhat.

I do think there's a real argument to be made that Hulk doesn't really add that much from a fun perspective and shouldn't have been unbanned, but at least in the competitive arena Flash is the most problematic.

On the upside if you were to reban hulk, flash would no longer be an issue (until an enchantment that can win the game on its own comes along).