Thassa’s Oracle and the Case for Flash

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

Hi,

I've reached out to quite a few members of the RC/CAG about the situation so I'm going to compile a post that generally contained the knowledge I tried to give them.

So Flash+Hulk is a pretty popular combo in cEDH. Before Thassa's Oracle, there were several archetypes that used this combo, but I'll list some of the most popular.

Sacred Hulk: Sacred Guide+Hapless Researcher+Sylvan Safekeeper+Laboratory Maniac. Exile your deck with Sacred Guide, Draw a card with Hapless Researcher, and protect labman with Sylvan Safekeeper. It plays Jace, Wielder of Mysteries plus Demonic Consultation and Tainted Pact as a backup win condition. It like to hold up mana the entire game and then cast Flash on top of a counter spell battle to win the game out of nowhere.

Shuffle Hulk: Pretty complicated, but basically it shuffle a narcomoeba into your deck and mills it back into play over and over until you die to a blood artist. It can win through 2-3 pieces of removal thanks to the fact it can just sac narcomoeba and restart the combo on top of a removal spell. It tries to go for flash hulk ASAP but can also hold up flash and try to win on top of a combo. It also has the back up plan of playing Academy Rector + Pattern of Rebirth + Sac Outlet to win the game eventually by getting your protean hulk and sacrificing it. Its definite faster and relies on flash less.

Breakfast Hulk: Cephalid Illusionist + Nomads Encor mills your entire deck, followed up by a pretty lengthy combo which ends with a Laboratory Manic and Hapless Researcher to end the game. Its pretty much the only flash hulk deck that wins at sorcery speed and is pretty fair.

Sigil Hulk: Sigil Tracer + Spell Seeker (which grabs Dramatic Reversal). Its basically Isochron scepter + dramatic reversal but also a hulk pile! It can win at sorcery speed or instant speed with a Thrasios in play. It wins by drawing your deck, noxious revival'ing your Flash and then casting Flash to play your lab maniac at instant speed.

Spellseeker Pile: Spell seeker (getting demonic consultation) + Lab Maniac. This pile is usually a backup pile for most hulk decks (especially sigil and sacred hulk). It wins through most hate and is effectively free since you run the cards already. You do need an additional draw trigger though. This pile has been MUCH improved thanks to Thassa's Oracle.

Something you may notice is that a lot of these decks do a few similar things:
* Win at instant speed
* Use laboratory maniac
* Have you use slots in their combo to protect lab man or to draw a card

Oracle does a few things that are relevent to that:
* Oracle doesn't need you to draw a card
* Oracle doesn't need protection, since if your devotion is 0 with 0 cards in library you still win
* Oracle can easily be used to win at instant speed

These three things combined means that these hulk piles which took years to discover as the format has matured have been immediately outclassed.

Sacred Hulk, Sigil Hulk, Shuffle Hulk, and other hulk piles I didn't mention are now completely invalidated and outclassed.

Here is how Oracle is used in a hulk pile to win the game:

Hulk Pile 1:
Spell seeker (getting consultation)
Oracle
1 mana left to get Curse Catcher, a creature that returns oracle to hand, or a creature that bounces another creature, or a Blood Pet which will pay for consultation so its a free pile

This combo can win at instant speed, for free once hulk has resolved, and any removal spells in your opponents hands is absolutely dead because now instead of a creature, you win with a trigger on the stack.

Hulk Pile 2:

Cephalid Illusionist + Nomad's Encor + Oracle

Mill your whole deck, win with the trigger. Removal spells, opponent's shuffling cards back in won't work. You can just mill in response to trigger again.

Hulk Pile 3:

Nomad's En cor, Cephalid Illusionist, and Spellseeker (getting Pact of Negation or Veil of Summer or Silence etc)

Mill your deck, sac 3 creatures to dread return to reanimate the oracle from your graveyard. This is actually weak to graveyard hate, but it just shows that oracle has further redundancy beyond those first two incredibly strong piles. You also can tutor for a pact of negation to protect your combo, which is very very powerful.

Now with these three piles you have completely outclassed anything else that has existed prior in the format. You can now win consistently at instant speed for 1U through almost all hate in the format and without needing to draw a card. You now can win through a narset or notion thief, and you can now win through a creature removal spell. Additionally, saving 2-3 mana on a hulk pile is an incredibly powerful effect, as it allows you to use those slots to protect the combo. But the power level of this new pile may be incredibly high, but its not exactly the reason that this is so problematic.

This new card allows a single deck to emerge that combines the two most powerful archetypes in the format to the point where there really isn't a good argument for playing a deck besides this. It would be like playing seedborn muse instead of prophet of kruphix in a Simic deck, it just doesn't make sense.

BUT AGAIN, thats not really the real problem that people have right now.

The real problem is that the Flash Hulk deck creates extremely toxic play patterns that have been getting more and more problematic as the format has evolved. The fact that the best deck in the format and the fastest deck in the format has 0 incentive to try to win as soon as possible creates incredibly boring play patterns, and the more people that play Hulk the worse it gets. Flash Hulk can hold onto Flash+Hulk for several turns and forces every player at the table to never over extend at risk of possibly losing to Flash and it extends games into hours because of this battle of chicken.



Flash seems like a fast combo, but in reality it's actually the opposite. Because you can win at instant speed, and winning on turn 3 and turn 15 are the same thing in terms of trying to win, it's often advantageous for the flash player to wait until the very last moment.

Consult is such an excellent pair to flash because:
* it requires you to usually have a certain amount of resources on the battlefield that can be answered (Jace, Lab Man)
* it's generally more mana restrictive (Oracle is UUB, Jace is 1UUUB, and Lab Man is 2UB)
* the card quality is very high. Consult and Tainted pact (the deck exilers) often double as tutors unlike Hulk, Flash, and the cards you typically get with protean hulk
* consult can win through all the stax pieces that stop hulk
* all the stax pieces that stop/hurt consult help Flash Hulk
* it often wants to hold up mana, so it is prepared to play against flash

That last point is especially important, and let me explain it in even greater detail.

Some of the best stax cards against consult decks are:
* rule of law effects (these stop the deck from playing as many cards and make their protective counter spells dead, it also turns off the Oracle+Consult win)
* Blood Moon + Back to Basics (their combos are very color intensive)


Rule of Law helps flash decks a lot! It means that they can cast flash at instant speed once all other 3 players have cast a spell and now there is 0 ways to stop them

Flash costs only 1U so once they have a birds of paradise or mox diamond or basic island they can easily win through Back to basics or blood moon

If you play the hate that is good against flash hulk, this new Thassa's Oracle Hulk deck just goes for the consult plan instead, which is super easy for them to pivot to since their hulk pile is just Spellseeker + Oracle, so...

The thing that Oracle changes is that it makes flash hulk better at the thing that Consultation decks were already maybe a little too good at, and further homogenizes the format towards an extremely unfun way to play.


The reason it takes so much to explain this and I felt the need to say so much is that on first glance this looks like a card that would look really good in the Consultation decks. You would think this would help them, but in reality Flash+Hulk is such a strong effect that it just swallows up any power boost that another archetype gets and becomes even more powerful because it can do it at instant speed. Even more shocking, the best deck against this new Hulk Deck, is actually the same exact deck, as the best consult deck is usually the best deck against hulk.


I hope this turned out as something that make sense and was easy to read. It's several cut out bits from many conversations I've had where I've tried to explain these concepts in detail. I wanted this all in one place for people to check out. Thanks for reading!
Last edited by braden 4 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

I want to add, the problem isn't necessarily that there is a top deck, the problem is that the top deck forces the rest of the meta towards playing the same list and it also produces EXTREMELY problematic play patterns.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

Whenever the best deck's worst matchup is itself, there is a problem, no matter the format.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

[mention]pokken[/mention] Yeah for sure, it took me a couple days to figure that out.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

This is a bit of a tangent, but:

For me the fundamental issue with the format is still winning on the stack is too easy, and this includes consultation + oracle after a hypothetical flash ban. Even if hulk goes, consultation + thassa's oracle is going to be the best win condition in the format and it's not particularly close -- you simply cannot beat 3 mana win on the stack even at sorcery speed.

What I'm unsure of is if maybe it's *enough* worse that you can justify trying to build decks that don't have to play dead slots. Combos like temur sabertooth + dockside extorionist surely have a bit less dead draw than consultation decks where the cards are a lot less likely to put you in winning position.

My gut instinct is that consultation will remain too efficient to bother playing anything else, because it's just way easier to play 3 mana worth of cards and back them up with interaction -- and also have the backup of consultation for jace, flash back consultation out of Kess.

How do you think things shape up if they just ban Flash?

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

pokken wrote:
4 years ago
How do you think things shape up if they just ban Flash?
I think the format speeds up, which is generally bad for consult.

I think Oracle + Consult can't win through a Torpor Orb or a Rule of Law (both become MUCH better after Flash is gone)

I think that people start playing the Sneak Attack hulk decks, which also have to be stopped on the stack but are more mana intensive and are red, which promotes format diversity.

I think people start hating on color mana, which kills the Consult decks grindy plan which is actually the powerful portion of the deck. Currently, flash decks have such small color requirements that Back to Basics or Blood Moon don't get the job done.

I think that decks like Yisan or Reanimator which are more "fair" but lose to Grafdigger's Cage and other Flash hate get to come back into the format which is pretty exciting.
Last edited by braden 4 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

Is cEDH still a somewhat broken and degenerate format? Yes. But it was already that when most of the people who play started playing it. It would be silly to ask for more than a flash ban imo.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

braden wrote:
4 years ago
Is cEDH still a somewhat broken and degenerate format? Yes. But it was already that when most of the people who play started playing it. It would be silly to ask for more than a flash ban imo.
I saw a pretty robust treatise on Reddit that called for tainted pact, consult and flash as bans, which I think would generally appeal to me personally more. With oracle I'm not sure consult/pact are enough worse than flash that you really see the change you're looking for.

My expectation is substantially less hopeful than yours; pretty sure you were correct *before* oracle, that if you ban flash you see an open metagame. But I'm fairly sure that oracle + consultation is fast enough that nothing else is really all that viable, whereas jace+consult and labman+consult were quite a lot worse.

Still, I am not sure if that kind of CEDH involvement is right for the format, because I surely don't want the reverse such as unbans for CEDH to happen.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

1. I think from a political standpoint you're going to find it's impossible to ban 3 cards in EDH just because of cEDH. That would be like 10-12 percent of the banlist depending on your count. (3/25-28)

2. I think that evaluation is incorrect. I don't think Tainted Pact or Consult do anything particularly unfair in the format, especially in comparison to Flash.

3. The community is not in agreement about Consult+Tainted Pact like it is about flash. I've been calling for a flash ban longer than I've actually personally believed it because I felt it was good to have a unified front from a political standpoint. Don't feel like TP or Consult are anywhere near such a significant problem that I we need to unify around it.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

braden wrote:
4 years ago
1. I think from a political standpoint you're going to find it's impossible to ban 3 cards in EDH just because of cEDH. That would be like 10-12 percent of the banlist depending on your count. (3/25-28)

2. I think that evaluation is incorrect. I don't think Tainted Pact or Consult do anything particularly unfair in the format, especially in comparison to Flash.

3. The community is not in agreement about Consult+Tainted Pact like it is about flash. I've been calling for a flash ban longer than I've actually personally believed it because I felt it was good to have a unified front from a political standpoint. Don't feel like TP or Consult are anywhere near such a significant problem that I we need to unify around it.
It's obviously very difficult to know:
1) Just how bad consult/tp would be without flash
2) just how much better they are with oracle

So I'm definitely putting on my guessing cap here. But I do think it's supportable to think that consult/tp do pretty broken things in comparison to flash; I think both plays (flash and consult) are an order of magnitude more powerful than other things you can do in the format, with consult being closer to flash than to dramatic scepter.

edit: To say that I agree that it's politically unfeasible of course. I just think I would be a bit more skeptical about how much good a flash ban will do

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Post by darrenhabib » 4 years ago

I pointed a few of these things out in a post as well.

The problem is that at least people had to jump through a few hoops to make their 99 compliant with Flash + Hulk, and so you'd have a few dead cards as far as drawing them. Also the longer the game would go on, you could in fact be hindered by drawing some of the Hulk pile, so would have to cast them normally, which in turn exposes them to removal. Which just meant further ways your opponents could interact.

Now because the piles are so efficient, longer games don't matter so much and you are just going to draw good cards, rather than actually dead combo pieces.
Plus as you mentioned at least there was variety in the Hulk builds as well. People had to get a little inventive.

But you've specifically mentioned Flash. I'm guessing your aiming for that as the ban?

What happens with Demonic Consultation + Thassa's Oracle decks? I mean this is still a two card combo that is very hard to interact with as well. You really have to ask if this is too good as well?

It's a strange that we are in this position to begin with. Really Flash wouldn't be a problem without Protean Hulk, which did used to be banned.

So is the problem Thassa's Oracle or Flash or Protean Hulk or Demonic Consultation?
Or should a few or all of these be banned?

Interestingly if you banned Demonic Consultation, then Hulk piles would have to go back to slightly more awkward dedicated cards, but it's still pretty efficient.

If you ban Flash or Protean Hulk, then obviously Demonic Consultation + Thassa's Oracle becomes the most dominate win-condition, and in my opinion to good.

So really I feel that the major problem is Thassa's Oracle. It makes both Flash + Hulk AND Consultation decks too good.

Don't get me wrong, if I was on the RC I would have banned Flash a long time ago. But banning Flash doesn't solve the problem of too good a win-conditions in cEDH.
I think both Flash and Thassa's Oracle should be banned, and it would make for a more creative format.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

I think you're wrong about Consult+Oracle being the best deck post ban tbh. They're currently only the most powerful combo because of the flash decks imo.

This opinion (consult being good because of flash) is shared by most of the mods/content creators that I've interacted with.

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Post by braden » 4 years ago

I also think you're being pretty short sighted in banning Oracle. We've seen them print two copies of this effect in just under a year. I'm sure we'll be seeing more and more effects of these nature as cEDH/Magic matures.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

Consult with labman+Jace is already the second best deck so it stands to reason consult oracle would be the second best deck after a flash ban.

At least, almost everyone I know believes either CST or Consultation Kess is the best deck after a flash ban. Some thing CS Kenrith.

The next contender is FSFC which I don't think is as good as either of those but maybe?

(Side note: For me Oracle banning is 100% no go - it's a brand new card no one in the casual community has gotten to enjoy. I could easily see a clone/copy enchantment deck making enough pips to try winning with oracle in fair ways. Card has way too many fair uses to even consider banning it for YEARS).

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Post by UnfulfilledDesires » 4 years ago

Personally, I've yet to see Flash decks dominating my local cEDH scene (competitive tournaments for small prizes). I haven't been playing much lately, but I've encountered more Food Chain than Flash, & it was a Derevi Stax deck that seemed to be doing the best of all a few months ago.

Did any of y'all watch the recent Mystic Remoras stream where they tested Thassa's Oracle? I caught the end of it. Folks told me Oracle plus Consultation (or Pact?) won 3/5, Jace plus Consultation (or Pact?) won 1/5, & Flash Hulk into Breakfast Oracle won 1/5. That little bit of data aligns with the notion that the combo of Oracle/Jace plus Consultation/Pact provides an extremely potent wincon without Flash Hulk.

I suspect the cEDH meta at my LGS will remain diverse regardless of a ban. Commander is a marvelously complex format with high variance. Fish Hulk might be the top deck without any changes, but probably only by a few percentage points (or fractions of them).

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

UnfulfilledDesires wrote:
4 years ago
Personally, I've yet to see Flash decks dominating my local cEDH scene (competitive tournaments for small prizes). I haven't been playing much lately, but I've encountered more Food Chain than Flash, & it was a Derevi Stax deck that seemed to be doing the best of all a few months ago.
Most of the CEDH guys at my shop are quite budget, but there are two players with unlimited budget who have hulk variants (kenrith hulk and TNT Shuffle hulk). Those two decks win almost every game that is played, since I quit playing with them with gitrog (where I would take about 30% or so).

I would say Hulk absolutely dominates my meta, even though there are only two builds of it it probably wins 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the games played.

(A budget player with consultation kess does fairly well picking up maybe 1 in 10 or so from what I've seen, a non-budget consultation kess pulls about even winshare (1/4)) when he's around. The budget guys mostly get drubbed).



** An important bit of trivia that I thought was interesting -- six months ago when I started playing CEDH with the guys at our shop they basically said the same stuff. Flash hulk is good but it can be meta'd against, look Kess won this tournament, etc. After six months of just one guy playing hulk and winning disproportionately the meta skewed against hulk, and now other people are starting to build hulk. There's the new Kenrith deck and I know at least one other person is building hulk.

So we had a pretty diverse meta but the more people played the more things have kinda converged toward hulk, food chain, and consultation builds. There's really not much left now except for a few budget decks, and those guys are starting to get pretty grumpy at this point (I've encouraged those guys to proxy their decks because it's so danged tiresome watching them get drubbed).

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Post by UnfulfilledDesires » 4 years ago

pokken wrote:
4 years ago
I would say Hulk absolutely dominates my meta, even though there are only two builds of it it probably wins 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the games played.
Do those two Hulk players happen to rather be skilled? That makes all the difference in my experience. I've seen folks with perfect cEDH lists lose to misplays various times. The local meta as I remember it includes a mix of budgets, but there are a decent number of ABUR duals, LEDs, Moxen, & so on around. That Derevi Stax deck I mentioned appeared to have no budget constraints whatever & may have been entirely foiled out. It also included Oracle of Mul Daya, which I don't think of as a cEDH card.

There was a Food Chain Prossh deck locally that won a bunch of games, developed quite a reputation, & encouraged cEDH proliferation. For a while it seemed to have had a high win percentage. I'm not sure whether the meta adapted or that player just got tired of the deck, but they were on Sisay, Weatherlight Captain (approximately CEDH TV's list) last I saw.

I'm sure the local cEDH scene could converge toward those best decks in similar fashion. Maybe it already has since I've been away. I've won a few games with Flash Hulk myself & plan to try to win some more as soon as I can get my hands on a copy of Thassa's Oracle. I'll be running it in Yidris & Tasigur, so no breakfast piles for me. I'll be more vulnerable to Arcane Lab effects.

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

UnfulfilledDesires wrote:
4 years ago
pokken wrote:
4 years ago
I would say Hulk absolutely dominates my meta, even though there are only two builds of it it probably wins 2/3rds to 3/4ths of the games played.
Do those two Hulk players happen to rather be skilled? That makes all the difference in my experience.
Definitely above average players, but not any better than a lot of the community; there are more skilled players with lesser decks who get hulked consistently. Just not really a lot you can do about it a lot of times.

I've seen turn 1 hulks happen a couple times, but usually it's just a turn 11 hulk with 3 counterspells when one person taps out. It's pretty easy to defend.

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Post by BounceBurnBuff » 4 years ago

Ditching Flash really hits the instant speed nature of the win, removes the potential of Hulk continuing to be a problem long term, but also denies you the instant speed win by just using it on the Oracle itself if you already have Pact/Consultation in hand.

In a meta where there are multiple players with this option in their decks, it is just going to be more of a Mexican stand off than we already have. Without being able to Flash in response, effects like Torpor Orb become much better at holding Oracle wins back.

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Post by BeneTleilax » 4 years ago

Banning Flag makes the combo more interactive, and will likewise reduce the incentive to wait around with combo in hand. I'm all in favor.

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Post by benjameenbear » 4 years ago

Well, that's disappointing. I'm not sure why Flash and Tainted Pact have survived the ban list, as it seems that these are the two cards that are two top tier enablers for the most compact and efficient win lines in cEDH.

It seems like cEDH is converging towards Tainted Pact and Fish Hulk lists now, since they're the most efficient ways to be winning games at the moment.

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Post by TheAmericanSpirit » 4 years ago

Flash is a menace, this we can all agree on. The meteoric rise in prominence of Hulk-Flash in cEDH is almost immediately subsequent to Hulk's unbanning, a fact that cannot be understated or ignored in any historical analysis of the cEDH metagame. The relative ease, efficiency, and resilience of its many combo lines make it the premier wincon, but does that merit banning Flash? Let's look at Flash itself:

Flash {1}{U}
Instant
You may put a creature card from your hand onto the battlefield. If you do, sacrifice it unless you pay its mana cost reduced by up to {2}.

Card is nuts, correct? Of course it is, if Hulk exists. . Other than that, the card's ceiling only a little higher than Scout's Warning. No one is slinging flash with Terror of Mount Velus in cEDH, although the 75% crowd might. Furthermore, it isn't even a particularly unique effect to essentially sneak attack a creature from your hand or graveyard, so replacements, albeit less tailored, exist.

But is Hulk ever fair? Have you ever seen someone sac it to get Wood Elves and Farhaven Elf? It just doesn't happen. Hulk shortens the game by virtually telescoping the time needed to assemble a wincon. You don't need a chain of draw and tutors over turns anymore, you need only a tutor for hulk and one of several ways to kill him for cheao, Hulk will assuredly do the rest. The sad fact is that the RC bungled when they unbanned it in tandem with the m25 release, but to reban it only a few years later would be egg on their face, especially if only to please a subset of the EDH population. I seriously doubt any meaningful course correction will happen in regards to that, but I think banning flash is a band-aid for the format disemboweling that hulk has and will continue to perpetrate and perpetuate.

TL,DR: flash isn't the problem, Hulk is the problem.
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Post by UnNamed1 » 4 years ago

Personally, I don't think flash is the problem, Hulk is the issue. Hulk is what allow's players to pull out everything that they need to win (spellseeker, thassa's oracle, blood pet) and is completely un-interactive unless you stifle one of the etb's. In my experience ive seen flash used in a variety of ways, not all of them game ending like the hulk pile. Hulk however, I've never seen used in a "fair" way, grabbing something that won't instantly end the game.

Flash with Thassa's Oracle is strong, I personally have the Hulk pile as a sideboard but prefer to run my Oracle/Consultation combo. Not many people at the LGS like the hulk pile and only at the highest level of play is it even accepted at the table. Something that wasn't pointed out was the way that I use flash in mono blue. Play Thassa's Oracle, Flash, Leveler. That wins you the game as well, in fewer cards.

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Post by SP1R1TDRAGON » 4 years ago

braden wrote:
4 years ago
1. I think from a political standpoint you're going to find it's impossible to ban 3 cards in EDH just because of cEDH. That would be like 10-12 percent of the banlist depending on your count. (3/25-28)
First I think that Cedh requires more bans than casual edh since Cedh players actively try to break the format. (imo there isn't really a need for bans in casual formats at all since people regulate their on powerlevel: it's not the banlist that prevents people from bringing T2 combo decks to a casual table it's the players themselves)
Secondly I believe none of these 3 cards see any play in casual edh so people shouldn't really get upset over a ban

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Post by UnNamed1 » 4 years ago

SP1R1TDRAGON wrote:
4 years ago
braden wrote:
4 years ago
1. I think from a political standpoint you're going to find it's impossible to ban 3 cards in EDH just because of cEDH. That would be like 10-12 percent of the banlist depending on your count. (3/25-28)
First I think that Cedh requires more bans than casual edh since Cedh players actively try to break the format. (imo there isn't really a need for bans in casual formats at all since people regulate their on powerlevel: it's not the banlist that prevents people from bringing T2 combo decks to a casual table it's the players themselves)
Secondly I believe none of these 3 cards see any play in casual edh so people shouldn't really get upset over a ban
Interesting that you say cEDH needs more bans. As a thought exercise, a large discord group created a new banlist strictly for cEDH, and removed over half of the current bans as they were "too slow" to be impactful. IMO casual needs the bans more than cEDH, as cEDH actively tries to be the best of the best. Players can try to stop others but there will always be pubstompers. Maybe your personal group has a powerlevel set between you but when you play with 10-15 different people depending on the night, its much harder to have a universal power level.

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