Data on winning turns

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BaronCappuccino
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Post by BaronCappuccino » 4 years ago

The average winning turn is probably the most used metric to determine deck strength. Endrek Sahr usually gets off in six to twelve turns. It would be interesting to see where Commander players stand in terms of where they're comfortable winning. EDHRec doesn't crunch this sort of data yet. It'd let people see how their intentions stack up on average. In my case, everything about the deck led to the turn after casting Endrek being the soonest I can possibly win, and since I don't want to win in a way that doesn't need my commander, I'm happy to accept the consequences.

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darrenhabib
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Post by darrenhabib » 4 years ago

Unfortunately it's not a good metric to determine a control decks strength, in fact it's the opposite. One of my most winning decks is a control deck, that looks to stretch the game out as long as possible, grinding players out of resources.

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pokken
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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

darrenhabib wrote:
4 years ago
Unfortunately it's not a good metric to determine a control decks strength, in fact it's the opposite. One of my most winning decks is a control deck, that looks to stretch the game out as long as possible, grinding players out of resources.
Interestingly there is a similar metric that can be used for that! The concept of the critical turn. The turn when the game is most likely to be decided even if it's not over.

I would bet that most games with your control deck you have a pretty good idea of when you are in control and very unlikely to lose.

Thinking about the critical turn your deck is aiming at is very important. Far more than the average turn the game ends. Most games with my control decks I know when I've won long before anyone else does :)

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Candlemane
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Post by Candlemane » 4 years ago

I think data like the specific set of circumstances around a winning turn would be too variable to make even a hard job. It would be impossible without community participation, and the amount of inaccuracies would probably make the data corrupted. Plus, it wont factor things in that are ethereal, like luck.

This might work to some degree in cEDH, where things are a bit more "solved", but even then I don't think the data could be too dependable.

I think the question here is, what would the data even be good for? Encapsulating the whole game ala a video would provide better data points I think than just the last turn. Deck lists and a general understanding of the deck in it's meta would also be better I feel.

EDIT: To address the turn a deck goes off, I still don't really see the point. Setting up a number range of turns would give us an expected outcome to counter the deck? Time to win? I suppose it helps if you are looking for a deck online with a specific need for speed or some line of play.
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BaronCappuccino
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Post by BaronCappuccino » 4 years ago

My thought was that having a general idea of what was better phrased as the critical turn would allow people to better build on par with one another. For example, when you brew modern, you know about when your opponents will be planning their own critical turn. A lot of Commander's challenge as a format is creating fair fights. I bet most players here could beat me before I start playing, for example. The average quality of decks posted by people who frequented Mtgs and followed the regulars to a new community is the very definition of enfranchised.

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darrenhabib
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Post by darrenhabib » 4 years ago

pokken wrote:
4 years ago
darrenhabib wrote:
4 years ago
Unfortunately it's not a good metric to determine a control decks strength, in fact it's the opposite. One of my most winning decks is a control deck, that looks to stretch the game out as long as possible, grinding players out of resources.
Interestingly there is a similar metric that can be used for that! The concept of the critical turn. The turn when the game is most likely to be decided even if it's not over.

I would bet that most games with your control deck you have a pretty good idea of when you are in control and very unlikely to lose.

Thinking about the critical turn your deck is aiming at is very important. Far more than the average turn the game ends. Most games with my control decks I know when I've won long before anyone else does :)
There is usually a point I know I've got the game in the bag for sure, and often the games are "won" by the opponents conceding after figuring out that I'm just out resourcing them by a lot.
I couldn't tell you what range of turns this is for sure, but if people were inputting this sort of data, then I feel like you could have a critical turn range (picking an actual turn would be a bit hard to say a lot of games).

But how do you measure a combo decks strength versus a control decks strength based on lengths of games?

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pokken
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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

darrenhabib wrote:
4 years ago
There is usually a point I know I've got the game in the bag for sure, and often the games are "won" by the opponents conceding after figuring out that I'm just out resourcing them by a lot.
I couldn't tell you what range of turns this is for sure, but if people were inputting this sort of data, then I feel like you could have a critical turn range (picking an actual turn would be a bit hard to say a lot of games).

But how do you measure a combo decks strength versus a control decks strength based on lengths of games?
I don't think you can. I think you'd have to ask people to report honestly on critical turn. It would be very difficult to extrapolate meaningful info.

In my Inalla deck, it's usually turn 7 when I know I will win. If I have 7 lands and a hand full of cards on turn 7 and my life total is not completely gone, I'm probably winning.

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