Wow, what is happening to card prices!?

User avatar
scatteredsun
Posts: 9
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by scatteredsun » 2 years ago

So I'm back after 3ish years off of magic and I can't believe what's happened to prices! It seems like the good cards in current sets are much higher than they used to be. You'd usually have a few cards in the 10-15 dollar range and then one or two at 20. Now it seems you have four or five at 40+ and four or five at 20 plus.

When it comes to "older" cards I'm being constantly surprised by what cards have skyrocketed. Ashnod's Altar is the latest to shock me. $13 for Chronicles?!

Are these prices real? Is there really that much demand for Rhystic Study's?

User avatar
PrimevalCommander
Posts: 871
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by PrimevalCommander » 2 years ago

Wizards is pumping out so much product so quickly that supply and demand cannot reach equilibrium before the next set comes out. This is creating a mad dash for sought after cards and completely changing how you would expect the market to play out compared to a few years ago. Players don't have time to buy enough product of a given set before their attention and funding is moved over to the next release. So cards you expect to trickle down in price after a set reaches saturation, it never happens, and before you know it, it's out of print and prices start climbing before even dropping a cent from release. It's making it very hard for me to get cards I want when you can't ever catch them at a reasonable price. Unless I need to adjust what my definition of reasonable is. But pretty much any mythic that is useful in commander or other formats will start at $40 and only go up. Heaven forbid Modern gets a hold of it...
Last edited by PrimevalCommander 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Hawk
Slayer of Threads
Posts: 1165
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Salt Lake City, UT

Post by Hawk » 2 years ago

A few things:

1. Store play may still be down due to the ongoing Pandemic, but Magic has never been bigger. Demand greatly exceeds supply, especially for old stuff (Rhystic Study) and double especially for reserved list stuff (we're reaching a point where I don't know if I can feel comfortable including stuff like Wheel of Fortune and Metalworker in my Daretti nonsense deck - it's a deck worth more than my mortage).

2. Between EDHRecs, The Command Zone, Game Knights, Tolarian Community College, and other content creators and ranking websites, we're at an information saturation point. With that, we also see lots of folks "optimizing" in a way they didn't even 3 years ago. 3 years ago, Rhystic Study was maybe $8bucks as a "wow this card is powerful and annoying" - now, it's $30even after a few reprintings because "everyone knows" its a staple in Blue commander decks, and oh also Mystic Remora (which was temporarily a "budget alternative" to Study) also keeps on ticking higher and higher. We see this even with relatively new cards, like Smothering Tithe or Old Gnawbone.

3. These problems are exacerbated by @PrimevalCommander's notes above, as well as some supply-and-demand issues due to COVID (especially for cards released in Jumpstart and Modern Horizons 2) - hot new cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer skyrocket to insane prices because it's impossible for the limited supply to meet the demand of Modern, Legacy, and EDH players. This also makes it so that even reprintings are just holding the price of some staple cards steady, rather than decreasing them (for instance, Demonic Tutor is still ~$30 bucks despite getting a printing at rare in Ultimate Masters, appearing on "The List" for Set Boosters, getting a printing at Mythic in Strixhaven, and being a Judge promo last year).

4. Magic has also become an "investment strategy" for some folks (I won't call them players) - it's a stock market with a small but mighty group that will buy-out cards that seem of interest. While I think their existence and influence can be a bit overstated, it is real nonetheless and exacerbates all the issues above even further.

That all being said - while making an "optimized" Commander is tougher than ever, making a reasonable budget commander is easier than ever due to the proliferation of cards and the "designed for Commander" mindset.
Last edited by Hawk 2 years ago, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
scatteredsun
Posts: 9
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by scatteredsun » 2 years ago

Good stuff, it all tracks with what I'm seeing.

I only play in PlayEDH on Spelltable but I mostly see EDHRec decks and one of the big patterns I see is a lot of Treasure. This tracks with the price of some of those cards.

It seems Commander has definitely gotten more streamlined and efficient. MUCH more card draw in nonblue and most creatures are cheaper and have more abilities than they did a few years ago.

User avatar
PrimevalCommander
Posts: 871
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by PrimevalCommander » 2 years ago

Hawk wrote:
2 years ago
1. Store play may still be down due to the ongoing Pandemic, but Magic has never been bigger. Supply greatly exceeds demand, especially for old stuff (Rhystic Study) and double especially for reserved list stuff
From the context, I think you meant this the other way around.

I agree with all of the above, the amount of youtube content has really put the spotlight on everything that could possibly be good in commander and driven prices of even niche cards far beyond what I consider them to be worth.

So many tribal cards are like $20-$40 for niche cards that are only good in tribal decks. But there are soooo many people buying right now that the supply cannot support niche strategies on a budget any more.

User avatar
pokken
Posts: 6276
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 2
Pronoun: he / him

Post by pokken » 2 years ago

The Great Henge effect is real -- mythics in standard that are going to be popular in eDH (Wrenn and Seven and The Meathook Massacre from the latest set) will be $30+ really fast these days.

I've given up chasing these cards myself and will just trade for them when I need one for a deck.

But there's also an awful lot of inflation in food and rent; magic cards are an inflation resistant good and so people are hoarding them, which makes them even more resistant. Combine that with the increased interest in EDH staples and you've a recipe for pretty expensive cards.

Decks are definitely also getting more efficient which means the bottleneck of low mana value staples receives even more price pressure.

User avatar
Hawk
Slayer of Threads
Posts: 1165
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Salt Lake City, UT

Post by Hawk » 2 years ago

PrimevalCommander wrote:
2 years ago
Hawk wrote:
2 years ago
1. Store play may still be down due to the ongoing Pandemic, but Magic has never been bigger. Supply greatly exceeds demand, especially for old stuff (Rhystic Study) and double especially for reserved list stuff
From the context, I think you meant this the other way around.

I agree with all of the above, the amount of youtube content has really put the spotlight on everything that could possibly be good in commander and driven prices of even niche cards far beyond what I consider them to be worth.

So many tribal cards are like $20-$40 for niche cards that are only good in tribal decks. But there are soooo many people buying right now that the supply cannot support niche strategies on a budget any more.
Yup, thanks - sometimes my brain is faster than my fingers.

Another thing I thought of and remember from the ancient days of listening to Rancored_Elf talk about running a Magic business is that two major avenues of increasing supply of cards are a bit choked right now:

1) There was a phenomena that used to be discussed of how the "last set in a block" would be drafted less, and thus opened less - and that problem is now greatly amplified because there's way more releases, releases are all stand-alone, and oh yeah no one is actually drafting in stores (well obviously some are, but it's a lot less). Midnight Hunt is going to be a draftable set for only like 6 -8 weeks before Crimson Vow takes over when normally we would have been drafting it until February (since historically releases from November-February have been sealed or antholgy products like Commander Decks or From the Vaults, or have been "premium experiences" like Double Masters that don't necessarily replace the standard set for FNM draft nights).

2) Folks used to talk about how "the first MtGO redemptions are going out so that'll help prices". And MtGO still exists, for sure....but it seems to me most folks are jamming Standard on Arena and not MtGO due to its cleaner interface, mobile availability, and potential free-to-play nature, and Arena offers no such redemption mechanics.

Sure, we have stuff that should help compensate for this (Set Boosters, more packs in "Bundles" AKA Fat Packs) but I'm not sure it compensates enough.

User avatar
3drinks
Kaalia's Personal Liaison
Posts: 4830
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Ruined City of Drannith, Ikoria

Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

WotC just needs to stop being scared and just drop Chronicles II (and III, tbh). Screw the finance chodes, let them choke on their own vomit and get more cards in the hands of actual players. Follow the Yu-Gi-Oh model if you must.

If you want a better investment, go to vanguard and buy some low cost index funds, not painted cardboard for a game.

Modern
R{R/W} 87guide Burn
Commander
WRKellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon (local secret santa gift)
RTorbran, Thane of Red Fell (Red Deck Wins)
WBRAlesha, Who Smiles at Death (Slivers)
WBRKaalia HQ

User avatar
Mookie
Posts: 3460
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 47
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: the æthereal plane

Post by Mookie » 2 years ago

One other contributor I'll call out for this format in specific is that Commander has become a significantly more popular format - I believe it is currently the largest sanctioned format, beating out Standard / Modern. As a result, cards like Smothering Tithe and The Immortal Sun that are unplayable in Standard / constructed formats but popular in Commander have generally started at much higher price points.

The alternate arts and special treatments have also made prices more complicated. Similar to Masterpieces, their presence in the set will soak of some of the demand, slightly lowering the price of normal cards... but they also primarily come from set and collector boosters, which makes things even more complicated.

User avatar
Rumpy5897
Tuner of Jank
Posts: 1854
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Rumpy5897 » 2 years ago

A lot of great points raised. After years of internet hive mind, EDH feels like a proper format. You gotta run your two-drop ramp, you gotta run your staples. I'm not sure I get to throw stones here - I've been maintaining write-ups on four of my decks for years, trying to keep them well built, making me a (minuscule) part of the problem.

One of the many buyout events that happened in the past few years was last year, as Magic players found themselves on average more financially secure in the pandemic, and wound up with further support in some countries. Times were unpleasant, disposable funds available, a bit of retail therapy never hurt anyone. I actually participated myself, scoring a Grim Tutor in April 2020.
Hawk wrote:
2 years ago
That all being said - while making an "optimized" Commander is tougher than ever, making a reasonable budget commander is easier than ever due to the proliferation of cards and the "designed for Commander" mindset.
True words. I've found myself drifting in this direction once my limit on what it's okay to dump on a card reset over the pandemic. My whole Saryth deck costs less than that Grim Tutor, and I'm running a bunch of cards (Duskdale Wurm, Pelakka Wurm) because I found them in my bulk box and thought the art looks cool. However, it takes like-minded individuals to embrace a pursuit of the suboptimal, which may make it challenging for budget conscious lists to fend for themselves in certain environments.
 
EDH Primers (click me!)
Deck is Kill Club
Show
Hide

User avatar
3drinks
Kaalia's Personal Liaison
Posts: 4830
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Ruined City of Drannith, Ikoria

Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

Rumpy5897 wrote:
2 years ago
True words. I've found myself drifting in this direction once my limit on what it's okay to dump on a card reset over the pandemic. My whole Saryth deck costs less than that Grim Tutor, and I'm running a bunch of cards (Duskdale Wurm, Pelakka Wurm) because I found them in my bulk box and thought the art looks cool. However, it takes like-minded individuals to embrace a pursuit of the suboptimal, which may make it challenging for budget conscious lists to fend for themselves in certain environments.
Ayyy. It's incredibly tough, you set out to build a certain way and get laughed at and stomped, or even ignored because you're irrelevant. But then you build "right" and you end up stomping on people. There's no guardrails because you have no idea what or whom you end up playing with. Not everyone has the means, or desire to, bring a whole metal briefcase of decks for what might end up as a 2hr sesh.
Mookie wrote:
2 years ago
One other contributor I'll call out for this format in specific is that Commander has become a significantly more popular format - I believe it is currently the largest sanctioned format, beating out Standard / Modern. As a result, cards like Smothering Tithe and The Immortal Sun that are unplayable in Standard / constructed formats but popular in Commander have generally started at much higher price points.
Unsanctioned. Commander is not a sanctioned format. There's no events published for it, no event data published in an official capacity.

Modern
R{R/W} 87guide Burn
Commander
WRKellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon (local secret santa gift)
RTorbran, Thane of Red Fell (Red Deck Wins)
WBRAlesha, Who Smiles at Death (Slivers)
WBRKaalia HQ

User avatar
Mookie
Posts: 3460
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 47
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: the æthereal plane

Post by Mookie » 2 years ago

3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
Unsanctioned. Commander is not a sanctioned format. There's no events published for it, no event data published in an official capacity.
Ah, yes. I meant to say that Commander is the largest of the constructed formats (although it is beaten out by kitchen table / 'cards I own') - source

User avatar
3drinks
Kaalia's Personal Liaison
Posts: 4830
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Ruined City of Drannith, Ikoria

Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

Mookie wrote:
2 years ago
3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
Unsanctioned. Commander is not a sanctioned format. There's no events published for it, no event data published in an official capacity.
Ah, yes. I meant to say that Commander is the largest of the constructed formats (although it is beaten out by kitchen table / 'cards I own') - source
Now that much is true. Commander IS the kitchen table format, or at least overlaps enough with it.

Modern
R{R/W} 87guide Burn
Commander
WRKellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon (local secret santa gift)
RTorbran, Thane of Red Fell (Red Deck Wins)
WBRAlesha, Who Smiles at Death (Slivers)
WBRKaalia HQ

User avatar
RxPhantom
Fully Vaxxed, Baby!
Posts: 1513
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: Southern Maryland

Post by RxPhantom » 2 years ago

I remember when The Great Henge came out, and my first thought was "That's a bit overpriced at the moment. I'll just wait a few months or even rotation if need be." And it never came down. Stuff is weird lately.

Two years ago, I left this comment on the Ravnica Allegiance episode of Game Knights:
I watched this six hours after it came out, and paused it in the middle to order a few copies of Smothering Tithe before it spikes.
People comment on it occasionally, sometimes with whatever its price is at the time. Someone commented today that it was $37. I went searching through my purchase history to see how many I got and what I paid for them. I bought five at $5.49 each. I wish I had bought more.
Can you name all of the creature types with at least 20 cards? Try my Sporcle Quiz! Last Updated: 2/18/22 (Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty)

Legend
Aethernaut
Posts: 1639
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Eternity

Post by Legend » 2 years ago

Sheldon Menery said that Wizards of the Coast calls the largest "format" in Magic "The Cards I Own". Both The Cards I Own and Commander are unsanctioned, constructed formats. The difference is The Cards I Own is unstructured, whereas Commander is structured.
It's hard (for me) to believe, but apparently players of The Cards I Own still purchase the most new product. But Commander primarily determines the secondary market.
Last edited by Legend 2 years ago, edited 2 times in total.
“Comboing in Commander is like dunking on a seven foot hoop.” – Dana Roach

“Making a deck that other people want to play against – that’s Commander.” – Gavin Duggan

"I want my brain to win games, not my cards." – Sheldon Menery

User avatar
Mookie
Posts: 3460
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 47
Pronoun: Unlisted
Location: the æthereal plane

Post by Mookie » 2 years ago

RxPhantom wrote:
2 years ago
People comment on it occasionally, sometimes with whatever its price is at the time. Someone commented today that it was $37. I went searching through my purchase history to see how many I got and what I paid for them. I bought five at $5.49 each. I wish I had bought more.
Apparently I got mine at $3.92. Only ordered one though. Alas.
....I don't know that I would currently be running it in more than the one deck, but it would be nice to have the option - I generally don't buy cards more than $2, so I'm stuck with just the one for the foreseeable future.

User avatar
Igzex
Posts: 405
Joined: 2 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by Igzex » 2 years ago

Having hobbies is just becoming increasingly unpleasant these days. My retro video game collecting has come to a standstill because I can barely find any good sellers anymore.

So has it been with card games. Heck I can't even get Yu-Gi-Oh product in stores anymore because of how crazy people have been over them.

User avatar
TheAmericanSpirit
Supreme Dumb Guy
Posts: 2194
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 1
Pronoun: he / him
Location: IGMCULSL Papal Palace

Post by TheAmericanSpirit » 2 years ago

3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
Not everyone has the means, or desire to, bring a whole metal briefcase of decks for what might end up as a 2hr sesh.
A.K.A. the Seto Kaiba aesthetic

Seriously though, only the quote/unquote staples are expensive, but I agree that there's loads of good stuff lost in the chaff. The deck I can build for $50 today is about 3-4 times better than one I could build on the same budget in 2012. I think the important thing to do is to go deliberately off-trail when building. Eschew edhrec and other resources in favor of a scryfall search with the parameters USD < .50, and you'll see a world of pure imagination.
There's no biscuits and gravy in New Zealand.
(Except when DirkGently makes them!)

kirkusjones
Disciple of Dumb
Posts: 736
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by kirkusjones » 2 years ago

Echoing what others have said (in other threads), with prices so wild (and people chomping at the bit to pay them) now seems like a great time to make a graceful exit from the game. A friend sold everything with the exception of a handful of decks and I'm following his example. I was a little worried at first, but as the packages start to go out the door and money shows up in my paypal account, the temptation to get rid of everything is very strong.

User avatar
3drinks
Kaalia's Personal Liaison
Posts: 4830
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Ruined City of Drannith, Ikoria

Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

TheAmericanSpirit wrote:
2 years ago
3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
Not everyone has the means, or desire to, bring a whole metal briefcase of decks for what might end up as a 2hr sesh.
A.K.A. the Seto Kaiba aesthetic

Seriously though, only the quote/unquote staples are expensive, but I agree that there's loads of good stuff lost in the chaff. The deck I can build for $50 today is about 3-4 times better than one I could build on the same budget in 2012. I think the important thing to do is to go deliberately off-trail when building. Eschew edhrec and other resources in favor of a scryfall search with the parameters USD < .50, and you'll see a world of pure imagination.
It's why I've moved into a revel in riches strat with zenith Kaalia. I get to use the one dockside I got from the deck, a smothering tithe I got from grinding FNM, and recently gifted to me goldspan dragon. Don't need a website list of must plays when I've got boxes of cards. Most the new stuff is side grades anyway.

Modern
R{R/W} 87guide Burn
Commander
WRKellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon (local secret santa gift)
RTorbran, Thane of Red Fell (Red Deck Wins)
WBRAlesha, Who Smiles at Death (Slivers)
WBRKaalia HQ

User avatar
SecretInfiltrator
Posts: 5701
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: they / them
Location: The Shattered Realm

Post by SecretInfiltrator » 2 years ago

Igzex wrote:
2 years ago
Having hobbies is just becoming increasingly unpleasant these days. My retro video game collecting has come to a standstill because I can barely find any good sellers anymore.
If you have an hour and want to be depressed, I can recommend a video that analyses how that particular hobby is currently in the process of actively getting manipulated: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvLFEh7V18A. But as a collector you may already be aware of this.

User avatar
TheAmericanSpirit
Supreme Dumb Guy
Posts: 2194
Joined: 4 years ago
Answers: 1
Pronoun: he / him
Location: IGMCULSL Papal Palace

Post by TheAmericanSpirit » 2 years ago

SecretInfiltrator wrote:
2 years ago
Igzex wrote:
2 years ago
Having hobbies is just becoming increasingly unpleasant these days. My retro video game collecting has come to a standstill because I can barely find any good sellers anymore.
If you have an hour and want to be depressed, I can recommend a video that analyses how that particular hobby is currently in the process of actively getting manipulated: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvLFEh7V18A. But as a collector you may already be aware of this.
That was a good watch. Wonder if that's what's happening in magic...
There's no biscuits and gravy in New Zealand.
(Except when DirkGently makes them!)

User avatar
Cyberium
Posts: 837
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: Unlisted

Post by Cyberium » 2 years ago

Online shopping also allows stores to manipulate price a lot easier. They can bait with a higher price tag to create a false sense of urgency, and unlike regular storefront they lose nothing since their products don't take up as much space if they don't sell. Sway of the Stars is the most recent example, all they need is one person foolish enough to believe in the hype to profit. If there are enough fools, the price will stay.

User avatar
3drinks
Kaalia's Personal Liaison
Posts: 4830
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him
Location: Ruined City of Drannith, Ikoria

Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

Cyberium wrote:
2 years ago
Online shopping also allows stores to manipulate price a lot easier. They can bait with a higher price tag to create a false sense of urgency, and unlike regular storefront they lose nothing since their products don't take up as much space if they don't sell. Sway of the Stars is the most recent example, all they need is one person foolish enough to believe in the hype to profit. If there are enough fools, the price will stay.
This is a $3 card. Did you mean Worldfire?

Modern
R{R/W} 87guide Burn
Commander
WRKellan, the Fae-Blooded // Birthright Boon (local secret santa gift)
RTorbran, Thane of Red Fell (Red Deck Wins)
WBRAlesha, Who Smiles at Death (Slivers)
WBRKaalia HQ

User avatar
BeneTleilax
Posts: 1330
Joined: 4 years ago
Pronoun: he / him

Post by BeneTleilax » 2 years ago

3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
This is a $3 card. Did you mean Worldfire?
Sway spiked to 24 after the Worldfire ban, it just didn't stick because people realized it honked.

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic

Return to “Commander”