How much chaos or randomness is too much? [MCD]

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Hermes_
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Post by Hermes_ » 2 years ago

so, with this set's focus on rolling dice and in the past coin flipping and the reactions it causes, i was wondering how much of this type of randomness compared to other "chaos" type effects is too much?
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Post by Mookie » 2 years ago

The dice rolling cards in AFR are extremely low-variance compared to traditional chaos effects like Warp World and Scrambleverse. I'd also consider them to be lower-variance than cascade and cards like Chaos Wand and Collected Company. It's also possible that they're lower variance than just drawing a card (see: every blind-flipped Delver of Secrets // Insectile Aberration / Bonfire of the Damned / Terminus). The random effects certainly can have an effect on the game.... but most games are won by miles, not inches - in the grand scheme of things, getting an extra token or gaining an extra point of life isn't going to matter.

...I will call out The Deck of Many Things as one of the few high-variance cards, but it's also an extremely flavorful card, so I give it a pass. I also expect the 0 result to come up waaaaay more often than the 20 result, which means the feel-bad moments are most likely to apply to the person that put the card in their deck in the first place.

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Post by pokken » 2 years ago

I'd be fine to play against a dice rolly deck now and then but if I had to all the time I would be annoyed. Most of the new stuff is not that bad, just incrementally worse from a time crunch perspective compared to the durdly crap EDH players normally are doing.

Generally speaking, I just do not like the time sink of this stuff, but I don't think they went too far as long as it's not a regular thing.

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Post by DirkGently » 2 years ago

If these cards were overpowered, it'd be pretty annoying to "need" to play with dice-rolling cards. As-is, I think most of them are pretty safe on the power level so they won't get played too much.

Bag of Tricks is the one I'm less sure about. That seems potentially pretty annoying and strong. I hope it doesn't end up getting a lot of play tbh.
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Post by pokken » 2 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
2 years ago
Bag of Tricks is the one I'm less sure about. That seems potentially pretty annoying and strong. I hope it doesn't end up getting a lot of play tbh.
I think its activation cost will keep most people off it thankfully. It's no Survival of the Fittest / Birthing Pod.

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Post by Treamayne » 2 years ago

Hermes_ wrote:
2 years ago
so, with this set's focus on rolling dice and in the past coin flipping and the reactions it causes, i was wondering how much of this type of randomness compared to other "chaos" type effects is too much?
In a playgroup, it's obviously whatever decision the group prefers. Online or in random tables, I think one or two smaller effects (Chaos Warp, Polymorph, etc.) won't usually cause a problem and a middle effect (Chaosphere, Gravity Well, Elkin Lair, etc.) are usually excusable if they are part of a theme and are used responsibly. Stronger effects or a suite of chaos/flip/roll cards should probably be reserved for a group that all agrees they want that kind of game.
Mookie wrote:
2 years ago
......I will call out The Deck of Many Things as one of the few high-variance cards,...
The nexus summary seems to have a typo...
20 | Put a creature from any graveyard onto the battlefield under your control. When that creature dies, it's own loses the game.
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Post by DirkGently » 2 years ago

pokken wrote:
2 years ago
DirkGently wrote:
2 years ago
Bag of Tricks is the one I'm less sure about. That seems potentially pretty annoying and strong. I hope it doesn't end up getting a lot of play tbh.
I think its activation cost will keep most people off it thankfully. It's no Survival of the Fittest / Birthing Pod.
Those cards also don't inherently generate CA. And Survival is too expensive for most people. While the cost is much higher ofc, it also pays the full cost of the creature, whereas survival still need you to cast it (or whatever you plan to do with it) and pod requires a creature of nearly-the-same cost. Considering you get the creature into play with no requirements or additional costs, 5 is still a bargain if you get anything >4 (and not necessarily awful depending on what you're hitting for <=4 either). And don't forget the flash bonus. Eot avenger of zendikar, for example, is much more powerful than podding into it or tutoring and casting it normally.
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Post by Hermes_ » 2 years ago

pokken wrote:
2 years ago

Generally speaking, I just do not like the time sink of this stuff, but I don't think they went too far as long as it's not a regular thing.
I think for a lot,this is what it comes down to. How long will it drag the game out.
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Post by Lifeless » 2 years ago

My group has a bit of a soft ban on cards that are random without purpose, but ultimately like you said it comes down to monopolizing playtime. If your turn doesn't take 5x longer than the control player it's not a big deal.

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Post by Outcryqq » 2 years ago

Even if the recent dice-rolling cards are generally low variance, for some reason, in my mind, the "random" nature of the dice roll turns me off to them. I'm the type of player that generally buys all commander precons (some to rip apart, some to keep together), but this most recent group with AFR is the first group in a long time I won't be purchasing. It's probably that I'm old and set in my ways, and the idea of rolling all those different dice annoy my delicate sensibilities.

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Post by Sinis » 2 years ago

Mookie wrote:
2 years ago
The dice rolling cards in AFR are extremely low-variance compared to traditional chaos effects like Warp World and Scrambleverse. I'd also consider them to be lower-variance than cascade and cards like Chaos Wand and Collected Company. It's also possible that they're lower variance than just drawing a card (see: every blind-flipped Delver of Secrets // Insectile Aberration / Bonfire of the Damned / Terminus). The random effects certainly can have an effect on the game.... but most games are won by miles, not inches - in the grand scheme of things, getting an extra token or gaining an extra point of life isn't going to matter.

...I will call out The Deck of Many Things as one of the few high-variance cards, but it's also an extremely flavorful card, so I give it a pass. I also expect the 0 result to come up waaaaay more often than the 20 result, which means the feel-bad moments are most likely to apply to the person that put the card in their deck in the first place.
Dang, I come here to write what I think, and @Mookie has already said it all.

I was literally going to cite Bonfire of the Damned and Terminus in my post as cards that are bonkers variance and how Miracle ended up being a mechanic almost designed to tilt people with its randomness.

Also, Deck of Many Things is probably fine; I mean, if you really want to empty your hand for the ~5% chance (obviously higher once you consider Barbarian Class, etc.) you can sorta maybe off someone, you could do that, I guess. But, playing Hellbent isn't what I would call tactically sound (unless it's with Sire of Insanity).

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Post by BeneTleilax » 2 years ago

It's fine, it's not my thing, but it's not forced on me. Deck of Many things is annoying, but it's no more mindless than a lot of "you win" cards. People who like them can play them and it's no skin off my nose. It's about the power level I like, where it doesn't just suck, and people who are into it can build decks around it, but players aren't incentivized to fling dice at everyone always.

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Post by DirkGently » 2 years ago

One nice thing, I think, about these sorts of things psychologically that I think I've historically discounted is that a lot of people, when looking at cards, will often avoid playing cards that don't fit into their themes - and the reason, I think, is that when people are evaluating a difficult-to-evaluate card, unless it's clearly busted or terrible they'll assume it's within a general window of fairness, and then ask "would that card be particularly effective in my deck?" And if the answer is "no", then they assume it's not good enough, even if the baseline power level is still quite high without synergy.

As an example, a card that I really disliked the design for recently is Yusri, Fortune's Flame. This card is, imo, pretty absurd. It's already got a basically fine stat line as a 2/3 flyer for 3, but on attack, assuming you flip 5 coins with average luck, you'll draw 2.5 cards at the cost of 5 life. That is completely bonkers in the command zone. Phyrexian Arena has been a staple forever and it draws you just 1 card - and it's not in the command zone! On top of that, the life loss can be removed with lifelink, and then there's also the completely stupid chance to get a free omniscience for some reason.

So I'm thinking - this seems like the grossest control/combo commander ever. Just play a ton of control pieces, some combos, maybe a few ways to counteract the life loss if you even expect the game to last that long, and you've got a filthy deck.

But you look on EDHrec and that's not happening at all. He's a distant 4th most popular in the set, and of the decks that exist, they're almost universally coin flip decks. Of course a certain amount of coin flip synergy makes sense, considering how many he lets you flip for free, but a whopping 60% are running Fiery Gambit, which makes absolutely zero sense unless you're going all-in on coin flipping and basically ignoring the actual strength of the cards so long as they say "coin flip" on them. I mean, Squee's Revenge at 43% ffs. I could go on.

The point is, while Bag of Tricks makes me a bit anxious, and I think it's quite a powerful card in a vacuum, on reflection I'm skeptical that it will get much play. Because of where it's located, I suspect it will be branded as "one of those dice-rolling cards", and that the only decks wanting to play it will be decks that synergize around dice rolling instead of just using it for its innately strong effect. That could change, of course, people might start playing it in other places. But I do think cards like that have a built-in safety net around them by virtue of appearing niche, even when they're not really.
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Post by Mookie » 2 years ago

Re: Bag of Tricks - I'm going to call out Temporal Aperture as an incredibly direct comparison - both are two mana artifacts that cost five mana to activate, and give you a random card from your deck to play for free. I don't think Temporal Aperture is exactly breaking the format, so I would be surprised if Bag of Tricks did either.

Now, of course, it's possible to heavily weight Bag of Tricks in your favor - you can play a single 7 and 8-drop in your deck, and have a 25% chance of hitting them off bag of tricks, while almost no decks can afford to play 25+ cards that expensive. I will note that Bag of Tricks is also usually going to hit a more expensive target - the average mana value of a card in a deck playing Temporal Aperture (including lands) is probably going to be around 2.5-3, while the average value of the card hit by Bag of Tricks is always going to be 4.5, which is significantly higher. On the other hand, Temporal Aperture lets you hit 9+ drops like Eldrazi - and instead of putting the creature directly into play, you get to cast it, which can be relevant (the only deck I've ever considered Temporal Aperture for is cascade.dec, which is somewhat telling).

...anyway, I'm probably going to try out Bag of Tricks (with 1-2 topend targets) in a few of my green decks, if only because it looks amusing, but I would be surprised if it ended up being broken.

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Post by DirkGently » 2 years ago

While aperture is an interesting point of comparison, I think bag is stronger in enough ways that it probably stops being useful. The possibility of occasionally hitting something with cmc > 8 is basically irrelevant since that's already factored into the average mv (and I think 2.5-3 is really generous if you're including lands, that would imply that the average mv without lands is north of 4 which is pretty damn high). So we're already talking about something with roughly double the power just on that alone.

Add to that, the fact that you don't need to worry nearly as much about hitting situation spells, like board wipes when you're ahead or counterspells on your turn, since it's creatures only. You have far more control over which cards matter. Add to that, you're giving the creature flash which aperture can't do. Add to that, putting into play is almost always superior since it circumvents counterspells or any sort of "right before it lands" responses, like activating abilities before Linvala, Keeper of Silence lands for example.

I think all that being put together basically renders the comparison irrelevant.

I do wonder if the need for a d8 will limit popularity of the card. Ofc you can just use a d20 and do some math / ignore certain numbers though.
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Gollum - Lobelia - Minthara - Plargg2 - Solphim - Otharri - Graaz - Ratchet - Soundwave - Slicer - Gale - Rootha - Kagemaro - Blorpityblorpboop - Kayla - SliverQueen - Ivy - Falco - Gluntch - Charlatan/Wilson - Garth - Kros - Anthousa - Shigeki - Light-Paws - Lukka - Sefris - Ebondeath - Rokiric - Garth - Nixilis - Grist - Mavinda - Kumano - Nezahal - Mavinda - Plargg - Plargg - Extus - Plargg - Oracle - Kardur - Halvar - Tergrid - Egon - Cosima - Halana+Livio - Jeska+Falthis+Obosh - Yeva - Akiri+Zirda - Lady Sun - Nahiri - Korlash - Overlord+Zirda - Chisei - Athreos2 - Akim - Cazur+Ukkima - Otrimi - Otrimi - Kalamax - Ayli+Lurrus - Clamilton - Gonti - Heliod2 - Ayula - Thassa2 - Gallia - Purphoros2 - Rankle - Uro - Rayami - Gargos - Thrasios+Bruse - Pang - Sasaya - Wydwen - Feather - Rona - Toshiro - Sylvia+Khorvath - Geth - QMarchesa - Firesong - Athreos - Arixmethes - Isperia - Etali - Silas+Sidar - Saskia - Virtus+Gorm - Kynaios - Naban - Aryel - Mizzix - Kazuul - Tymna+Kraum - Sidar+Tymna - Ayli - Gwendlyn - Phelddagrif - Liliana - Kaervek - Phelddagrif - Mairsil - Scarab - Child - Phenax - Shirei - Thada - Depala - Circu - Kytheon - GrenzoHR - Phelddagrif - Reyhan+Kraum - Toshiro - Varolz - Nin - Ojutai - Tasigur - Zedruu - Uril - Edric - Wort - Zurgo - Nahiri - Grenzo - Kozilek - Yisan - Ink-Treader - Yisan - Brago - Sidisi - Toshiro - Alexi - Sygg - Brimaz - Sek'Kuar - Marchesa - Vish Kal - Iroas - Phelddagrif - Ephara - Derevi - Glissa - Wanderer - Saffi - Melek - Xiahou Dun - Lazav - Lin Sivvi - Zirilan - Glissa - Ashling1 - Angus - Arcum - Talrand - Chainer - Higure - Kumano - Scion - Teferi1 - Uyo - Sisters
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Post by 3drinks » 2 years ago

Dice roll cards aren't chaos. Chaos cards are those that change the game at fundamental levels such that the game doesn't behave as predicted and/or it becomes implausible up to and including impossible to plan your moves due to [effect]. I.e. Grip of Chaos, or Scrambleverse (warp world is not chaos, it has a strategy around it). Once you start playing these cards, I will politely, quietly pick up my cards and go to another table where players aren't insufferable dongknockers with sole intent to make things miserable for everybody. Life is too short to put up with your trolling crap.

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Post by Dragoon » 2 years ago

3drinks wrote:
2 years ago
Dice roll cards aren't chaos. Chaos cards are those that change the game at fundamental levels such that the game doesn't behave as predicted and/or it becomes implausible up to and including impossible to plan your moves due to [effect]. I.e. Grip of Chaos, or Scrambleverse (warp world is not chaos, it has a strategy around it). Once you start playing these cards, I will politely, quietly pick up my cards and go to another table where players aren't insufferable dongknockers with sole intent to make things miserable for everybody. Life is too short to put up with your trolling crap.
I was going to say this as well. There is a huge difference between Molten Birth and Scrambleverse. I love playing random cards from time to time as I find them refreshing and exciting, but I don't want to impose that to the whole table and make the game devolve into a huge mess. Chaos is more akin to Group Hug in my mind, while random cards can just be a "personal" gimmick.

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Post by folding_music » 2 years ago

chaos cards are fun imho, but I guess they take away agency from serious players who just wanna do their thing, if I was running Capricious.dec I would make sure it wasn't my only deck so as to allow for other players... but if you immediately stood up and left on the first instance of being Gripped I would definitely think you took yourself way too seriously.

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