Ponder vs Serum Visions

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ISBPathfinder
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 4 years ago

vs

Assuming you didn't have the option to run both of these cards, which would you choose and why? I am specifically looking at running them as sort of filler spots to move cards and look for specific cards in a non combo deck. Ponder is banned in modern but I think its for different reasons than when it comes to commander. The card selection of serum looks nice but its like, useful in the future where as Ponder might have a little better immediate results but maybe a little worse results over turns.

I was just curious and I wasn't sure there was actually a good reason for one over the other and thought I would see what people thought.
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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

Ponder is absolutely strictly better. It digs 4 (functionally) and allows a shuffle for other things that take advantage of shuffle effects. I would run ponder over brainstorm in most EDH decks - if you're not loaded on shuffle effects in particular, ponder is significantly stronger by having the shuffle.

I would run Portent or preordain before serum visions as well, and it's close whether opt is better.

I do run SV in decks that need to hit land drops, but only after top, portent, ponder, preordain and brainstorm.

The only advantage SV has is allowing you to ensure some number of cards are on the bottom, but Preordain is better at that if you need it. And because of the density of commander decks the shuffle effect is likely equivalent in the scenario you need to do that.

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Post by PrimevalCommander » 4 years ago

Ponder digs deeper before drawing. Its my pick. As stated above, the shuffle is good, but scry is also good. Scry before draw is better.

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Post by SocorroTortoise » 4 years ago

Definitely Ponder. It's typically one of the first inclusions in any deck with blue I put together.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet is that Ponder gets significantly better when combined with shuffle effects, because it lets you draw just the cards you're interested in. Serum Visions gets worse, because you're more likely to see the cards you sent to the bottom again. I'd still run Ponder over Serum Visions in a deck with no ways to shuffle but the gap between the two gets bigger the more of those you have.
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Post by Sinis » 4 years ago

Conventional wisdom is with Ponder; if you're looking for an out, you get 4 chances at finding it, whereas Serum Visions gives you 1... though, really 3 if you get another draw step. Ponder is really good at picking exactly 1 card that you need. Realistically, unless you're Pondering for a way to not immediately die, you will get another draw step.

In a vacuum, would probably play Ponder, and here's my reasoning:

You play Serum Visions draw a mystery card, and scry 2:
Case 1: You want two of the top two; no better than Ponder.
Case 2: You want none, no better than Ponder
Case 3: You want one but not the other. A little better than Ponder.

Let's say you play Ponder:
Case 1: You want all of the top 3, parity the same Serum Visions, but information is better.
Case 2: You want two of the top 3, parity the same as Serum Visions, but information is better.
Case 3: You want one of the top 3, parity is worse than Serum Visions (you're stuck with two cards you didn't scry away).
Case 4: You want none of the top 3, you shuffle, your parity is worse than Serum Visions, and your Information is the same.

The real sticking point is that Serum Visions always gives you a mystery card, and Ponder will give you a card you presumably want (or, a bad day, a mystery card). In very few of these cases is Serum Visions arguably better than Ponder (it's always when you want one or fewer cards of the top 3).

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Post by ISBPathfinder » 4 years ago

I think the assumption that you have a reasonable number of shuffles that Ponder is probably the right choice.

Lets assume with Ponder you have close to or essentially zero shuffle effects in the deck. Would that change your opinions? Ponder does get a lot better if you can draw 1-2 of the three and then shuffle the last one away. If you are going in assuming that you have to draw all three cards does that change your thoughts (assuming you don't shuffle off of the card itself)?

The particular deck I was looking at appears to have like, 5 or less shuffle effects in the deck.
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Post by hyalopterouslemur » 4 years ago

Well, first is definitely Brainstorm. But of the two you listed, Ponder first. Though it's not like I would pass up a one-mana cantrip.
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Post by Sinis » 4 years ago

hyalopterouslemur wrote:
4 years ago
Well, first is definitely Brainstorm. But of the two you listed, Ponder first. Though it's not like I would pass up a one-mana cantrip.
I mean, we'd also run Preordain before Serum Visions, too. There are other Options as well.
ISBPathfinder wrote:
4 years ago
The particular deck I was looking at appears to have like, 5 or less shuffle effects in the deck.
I think Ponder is still the better card, even if it's the only shuffle effect in the deck. Serum Visions is (arguably) among the worst of the one-mana cantrips.

Ponder could even shuffle away unwanted cards from Halimar Depths (though, you could also set up the most favourable Serum Visions with Depths as well)

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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

ISBPathfinder wrote:
4 years ago
I think the assumption that you have a reasonable number of shuffles that Ponder is probably the right choice.

Lets assume with Ponder you have close to or essentially zero shuffle effects in the deck. Would that change your opinions? Ponder does get a lot better if you can draw 1-2 of the three and then shuffle the last one away. If you are going in assuming that you have to draw all three cards does that change your thoughts (assuming you don't shuffle off of the card itself)?

The particular deck I was looking at appears to have like, 5 or less shuffle effects in the deck.
With low shuffle count, remember that Ponder adds a shuffle effect as does Portent. I would usually play those first since seeing 3 then shuffling is usually going to give you better information than seeing 2 then putting them on the bottom. You're very slightly more likely to see some of those bad cards again but you're also very likely to want one of the three right now.

The value of getting one of the top 3 right now is really high in most of my decks. Getting ponder locked without shuffles is a problem, but usually the impact of getting a particular card is going to override the risk--so if 1 card is good and 2 cards are bad, getting the good card right now is nice.

If you have very few shuffle effects and think the likelihood is high you'd like to see things at the bottom, you should still play preordain first. And I would give some thought as to whether a higher impact card like impulse might suit you better if you're only running one. it costs a bit more mana but if you're only running one filtering spell impulse is probably the best you're going to get -- or alternatively treasure cruise or dig through time.

I'll remind everyone that Brainstorm is worse than ponder if you're looking for something specific or if your deck does not have critical mass of shuffles. For more casual decks ponder > brainstorm, most of the time.
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Post by ISBPathfinder » 4 years ago

Sinis wrote:
4 years ago
ISBPathfinder wrote:
4 years ago
The particular deck I was looking at appears to have like, 5 or less shuffle effects in the deck.
I think Ponder is still the better card, even if it's the only shuffle effect in the deck. Serum Visions is (arguably) among the worst of the one-mana cantrips.

Ponder could even shuffle away unwanted cards from Halimar Depths (though, you could also set up the most favourable Serum Visions with Depths as well)
Not necessarily. Its true that Opt has higher impact on the card it will draw but having additional scry does impact the next turns more. Opt being instant is nice but not always relivant if you don't have a lot of things to do at instant speed.

Also, while Brainstorm is great, if you don't expect to have a means to shuffle I would say that Serum Visions is probably better in the long run even if it might not immediately be stronger. The power of Brainstorm is being an instant, shuffling, and upfront value but if you don't value it being an instant in that you don't have a lot of instant speed things, have shuffles, or trying to combo off right then it falls off some.

Serum Visions isn't amazing upfront, but that said the over time value of it is still quite decent.
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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

May want to see Pauper for cantrips without shuffle effects - preordain is #1 last I checked, with ponder clocking in before serum visions (which doesn't see any play afaik).

ref:

Pretty good arguments there (in the replies, not the OP so much:P) but basically the same thing I said about getting to take one of the three now. That may be lower impact in EDH where the cards are more wildly divergent, however.

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Post by MeowZeDung » 4 years ago

I like all the discussion around two of my favorite cards among my favorite subtype of card: durdle/cantrip/card selection do nothing cards!

I generally agree with all the points that have been made supporting Ponder > Visions. Ponder is just the absolute friggin bomb on turn 1. It feels like starting the game with an 11 card hand assuming you were on the draw and didn't choose to shuffle, at least from a planning standpoint. It's great any other time as well. Chalk it up to pure personal opinion, but in our format I even put it above Brainstorm because of the optional shuffle as a bail out.

I think we can mostly all agree that a sometimes-known draw is better than an always mystery draw, so that settles that half of the discussion. The real question is: which is better, a strict scry 2, or a "conditional scry" 3 where you either top all 3 ordered how you want or shuffle them back in?

Obviously, some percentage of the time the scry 2 will work more in your favor, but this is assuming no other variables are involved and that's generally not the case, so I think the "conditional scry" is better and just gives you more control overall.

First is the obvious variable of shuffle effects. Where Ponder can burn you is if you want 2/3 or 3/3 of the cards you saw, but you're sitting on fetches (as in specifically plural) that you must play/crack to keep pace with the table. Honestly, unless I'm desperate, I think I would just hold the Ponder until I'd cracked all but 1 fetch. Any other time I'm happy to Ponder even if I'm sitting on a shuffle effect. If you only want 1/3, then shuffle after the draw, 2/3 shuffle after your next draw step, etc. In the event that you MUST play/crack your fetch right away even though you wanted all 3 cards you saw, just do so after you get the draw from Ponder. That way you at least got the best of the 3. It just requires some forethought. For such a cheap, seemingly innocuous spell, it's pretty dang skill intensive to pilot.

One thing that bears mentioning is that it isn't only shuffle effects that you should look at in conjunction with these two cards. Being an izzet/jeskai player predominantly, I often view card draw and cantrips as interacting with Faithless Looting, Jeskai Ascendancy, Frantic Search, and other looting effects. If you have anything like this available it makes Ponder even better because the 1/3 or 2/3 cards you don't want can just be loot fuel and you get the best of both worlds.

That's just my Izzet brain churning through my deck though. Every blue deck, paired with red or not, will be running card draw if not loot effects, so keep in mind that if one of the three revealed cards is Fact or Fiction or Stroke of Genius, it sometimes won't be relevant that you don't want one or two of the other cards you saw.

So, for my money Ponder > Serum Visions, but not by a ton. As an Izzet cantrip durdle wizard though, I say just run 'em both! :cool:
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Post by Rumpy5897 » 4 years ago

If forced to pick between the two, Ponder. The fact it goes 3 deep, with an option of 4 if you go for the shuffle, makes it preferable for providing options and immediately impacting the game. That said, I'd jam Preordain over either any day, and most likely Brainstorm too if in possession of shuffle potential.

In decks with Isochron Scepter, I've been known to duck out of the sorcery speed cantrips for various inferior instant speed options for maximum stick potential. Impulse is pretty good actually, Anticipate and Opt less so, but they can all live on the stick if nothing better comes along.
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Post by pokken » 4 years ago

For some illustration here's a set of 5 ponders goldfished from my Ephara deck ;)
I run a lot of shuffle effects but I had to go quite a while until I got a ponder I wasn't thrilled with heh :)

Without the fetch/shuffle lands some of those woulda been pretty bad though -- plains, plains, misty rainforest probably illustrates the whole "this is gonna be unpleasant if you don't play fetchlands" motif. However with many of those, Serum visions is pretty poor, since most of the time I just want the land right now and to put Spellseeker back on top ;)

As I look at it a bit more I think your deck composition might really effect this.

impulse is looking really great to me as a sub though, tbh. I think the likelihood you should play Impulse before visions is very very high...looking at a sequence of top 4s makes me respect that extra card a lot.

I think it would be a really good idea to look at a ton of goldfish data to see what ponders vs. serum visions look in your deck.

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Post by hyalopterouslemur » 4 years ago

Sinis wrote:
4 years ago
hyalopterouslemur wrote:
4 years ago
Well, first is definitely Brainstorm. But of the two you listed, Ponder first. Though it's not like I would pass up a one-mana cantrip.
I mean, we'd also run Preordain before Serum Visions, too. There are other Options as well.
True, there are a lot of versions of this; there are even cantrip creatures which I would run if I had some way to regularly blink and/or recur them.

Though as I said, cheap cantrips should be played more just because this is a format where "deck thinning" is a legitimate concept. The dominance of combo and control coupled with the deckbuilding rules (100 cards, only one of any card other than a basic land with a given English name) means anything to thin your deck cheaply is worthwhile. Even better with recursion.

One big issue is the sorcery speed. In blue in general, I prefer instants just because I'm playing a lot on other players' turns. If I'm playing the other big color in goodstuff decks, instants have synergy with Sylvan Library and Seedborn Muse.
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