Over-Under Predictions for New Commanders

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Hawk
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Post by Hawk » 4 years ago

Discussion time!

Commander 2019 gives us a whopping 16 all new Commanders - three for Naya, three for Jeskai, three for Sultai, three for Rakdos, and one each for Gruul, Boros, Golgari, and mono-black. I thought it'd be fun to give an "over-under" for how likely we think it is that these new commanders will be among the top in their colors on EDHRECs within the next year. Since each color combo is a bit different, I'll post the numbers first and then my own prediction. Feel free to post your own predictions, with discussion as appropriate, or to disagree with mine :).

Mono-black: Over 400 to break top 7
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K'rrik, Son of Yawgmoth: OVER: I think that Yawgy himself got a ton of attention initially based on lore-power, but I've already heard folks bemoan how clunky he can be. K'rikk offers a different take on a 2-powered suicide black Commander for four, and offers a totally new playstyle based around "suicide black"/"miracle gro". I think the combination of being a strong new payoff for some cards printed lately like Font of Agonies and having some real infinite combo potential with black lifegain and card draw spells which can quickly put you up cards and "mana" will put him in the top ranks of mono-black Commanders. I think he'll also be popular in the 99 of a variety of B/x decks that manipulate lifetotals.

Gruul: Over 400
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Tahngarth, First Mate: UNDER: I think the fact that Nikya of the Old Ways has exploded in popularity shows that players crave a different, new Gruul leader, but I think that Tahngarth is unlikely to be it. He's an intriguing Voltron general (which is a niche Gruul sort of lacks currently), but because control shifts the risk of losing Tahn to some random sacrifice outlet is high and that means you have to run him with Assault Suit...which overrides his ability. I think he'll prove initially popular and then fall off and fail to break the barrier.

Golgari: Over 500
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Grismold, the Dreadsower: UNDER, and far under. I know he has a bit of hype around him, and he has some funny "only good in this deck" stuff like Illness in the Ranks but competition in Golgari is stiff and I think he falls a bit short as both a powerhouse Voltron commander and as an Aristocrats commander. He doesn't even have the "interesting tribal leader" idea to fall back on since Varolz, the Scar-striped has him beat as far as Troll Tribal commanders go. I wouldn't be shocked if he's the least-played of the commanders we got this year.

Boros: Over 400
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Gerrard, Weatherlight Hero: OVER. Gerrard is a beloved character, and while his new card irks me aesthetically it is undeniably insanely powerful. Like the best Commanders he's quite good if just "played fair" as an insurance plan for a R/W beatdown deck, but he also has a lot of potential as a very powerful R/W control commander and/or a R/W "Eggs" Commander. The explosion of Feather, the Redeemed (who nearly has more decks than the next two combined) shows that players are very excited to have a Boros commander who rewards playing weird, quicky, and underplayed cards and is good for more than just face-smashing. I don't know if Mr. Capashen the II is going to quite overtake Feather, but I think he's going to be a huge hit both as a commander and in the 99.
Rakdos: Over 400
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Anje Falkenrath: UNDER: I think people's excitement to play a Looter as their commander will be fairly low. Being the face of her deck is a help, but Madness is poor and narrow in Commander and unlike Sevinne she doesn't get to splash into powering up other mechanics/keywords. I think folks will quickly realize that a dedicated madness deck is strictly casual and that a dedicated discard/hellbent/madness deck is better served by Olivia, Mobilized for War or Chainer.

Chainer, Nightmare Adept: UNDER: My first controversial pick, I think. Chainer is a well-loved older character, and his new card is super sick and arguably better at leading the precon than the actual face commander. But, Chainer is also slow, fragile, and is a reanimator commander limited to just Rakdos. I think we'll see a lot of initial experimentation before he eventually falls by the wayside. I think he'll crack 200 to be a top 10-15 Rakdos leader, but I just don't think he has the oomph to go the distance. Sorry, Dementia Man!

Greven, Predator Captain: OVER: This is a surprisingly tough prediction, but I'm going to go farther and say that I think Greven has a real shot at being the most played Rakdos commander and possibly overtaking Rakdos, Lord of Riots. Why? Well, if you look at all the Commanders after Rakdos himself, this color pairing is full of "gimmick" Commanders who are really focused on one narrow trick - Mogis, Scorpion God, Grenzo, Neheb, Xantcha.Greven has so many tricks he can do that I think he'll gain a lot of traction as a versatile, powerful commander. He can be the commander of Ball Lightning tribal, he can be a commander of "paying life matters", he can do Voltron kills very quickly and easily, he's a totally reasonable Warrior Tribal commander, and he can be a great aristocrat or "sac and steal" commander. He's surprisingly versatile for a rage-powered killing machine, is what I'm saying, and I expect to see a lot of him over the next year both as a commander and in the 99 of a lot of decks.
Naya: Over 600
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Atla Palani, Nest Tender: OVER: Atla is already climbing the ranks, having overtaken most Naya Partner setups and a few of the more obscure older Legends legends, and she isn't even officially released. She's got the perfect storm of factors to lead to being a format superstar. She can be "Weird Tribal" commander (and give many folks lots of joy playing Egg Tribal), she is mostly just a pure upgrade to Mayael, the Anima for "big fatty" Naya and a fine, flavorful alternative to Gishath and Zacama for Dinosaur tribal, and she has some real potential beyond that as a Tokens/Populate commander, a Naya Aristocrats commander, a "rattlesnake" defensive commander, and as a tribal commander working on a Polymorph-style combo engine. I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of eggs this coming year.

Ghired, Conclave Exile: OVER: I think it'll be close, but overall I think Ghired's a hit. This is a good example of how to do well in re-exploring a themed commander; at first I wasn't sure we'd get a Populate commander better than Trostani, Selesnya's Voice, but red is a big addition to such a deck both because it has some powerful token cards and because it makes it much easier to Populate that which ought not be populated via Twinflame and similar effects. Combine that with being the "face" of his deck (which gets a bit more lift) and I think he'll end up being in the top 5 a year from now.

Marisi, Breaker of the Coil: UNDER: For folks that wanted to play Naya cats, here's your new king? This is a powerful, unique, interesting group slug/chaos effect that I'm excited to play with, but I think overall Marisi isn't going to quite break free especially considering just how unique, fun, innovative, and powerful his peers are.
Jeskai: Over 200 to break top 7, over 500 to hang with Kykar, Wind's Fury.
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Elsha of the Infinite: OVER 200, UNDER 500: Okay, so why am I splitting Jeskai when I haven't split anyone else? Because to me, Jeskai faces an interesting problem. It has a dearth of good Commanders such that top 7 (aka the first row of an EDHREC report) has Ishai + Kraum with only 64 lists. So, breaking into the top 7 isn't going to be particularly hard here compared to the stiff competition we saw in Golgari and Naya. I think what's more telling is whether these newcomers can overcome the top dogs of Narset, Shu Yun, Zedruu, and Kykar. Elsha is playing in a similar space to all three spellslinger commanders, and I think is going to fall short. It lets you "go off" like Narset - but not as reliably or safely. It is a good "storm-builder" like Kykar...but less good as it can't make tons of mana for you or win the game on the spot against any number of foes like Kykar can. It can be a powerful Voltron creature - but is much slower and weaker than Shu Yun if that's what you want. Elsha is already closing in on the top 7 and it seems folks are excited to brew with him, but I'm going to boldly predict that when the testing is done folks will conclude he's just less fun and less powerful than Kykar, Narset, and Shu Yun and he'll settle into the 200-300 range.

Pramikon, The Sky Rampart: UNDER: I think that the first legendary wall might have taken off it was base selesnya (so if it was in Naya, or Bant, or Abzan), but missing out on green is a tough sell especially when you add Red, a color not known for its Great Walls. Pramikon has some surprising angles from which one can attack, but is generally fairly niche, and as far as "political" commanders that reward crazy plays go it ain't no Zedruu the GOAT. Again, this card is getting tons of hype and discussion, but I actually think it's going to fail to even break 200 when the dust settles.

Sevinne, the Chronoclasm: OVER 200, UNDER500: Sevinne has the same problem every face commander had, really - how do you do this better than the existing options? Sevinne's answer is the same as everyone except Anje in that he gets around this by spreading to a color not normally known for casting from the 'yard. I think as the Face of the deck he'll break 200, especially since his ability isn't keyed to Flashback specifically and thus allows for some fun with Aftermath, Retrace and Jump-start. Those mechanics are all popular and give him a clear, unique angle compared to other spellslingers (as does the ability to be a fine defensive Pariah commander that allows for more colors compared to Cho-manno, Revolutionary). Ultimately though, I think this time they played it too safe - by only being able to trigger once per turn and by costing 5 mana when the cards he uses are often quite expensive to flashback, he's just not going to have the oomph to take out the big boys and girls of Jeskai.
Sultair: Over 200 to break to 7, over 600 to break top 5
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Kadena, Slinking Sorcerer: OVER 200, OVER 600: Same deal for Sultai - most commanders are real bad and a lot of this shard's share is tied up in a few extremely powerful top dogs. Another bold prediction - but I think Morph is an insanely popular strategy and the ability of Kadena to generate immediate, instantaneous value with it is going to put him over the top when combined with him being the face of the deck. Kadena offers something totally different in a tangible, real way for one of magic's most popular mechanics and I think he's got a real shot at overtaking Yarok.

Rayami, First of the Fallen: UNDER 200: You'd think "Sultai Vampires" would be interesting as would "keyword soup tribal", but I think that this all gels into a final product that's a bit bland. It doesn't help that he kills the graveyard synergy that Sultai is known for. I think he will fall far and get nowhere as he's bad in the 99 and unexciting as a solo commander.

Volrath, the Shapestealer: OVER 200, UNDER 600: People love -1/-1 counters and love shapeshifter tribal so I'm sure he'll gain traction and love, but I think ultimately even as a beloved lore character he just comes up a bit short compared to the Mimeoplasm and will probably end up under the 600 needed to be a top Sultai commander

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TearsOfTomorrow
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Post by TearsOfTomorrow » 4 years ago

A very interesting read. I disagree when it comes to Chainer, as I believe the guy has more potential, and can pull off more brutal, fast tricks, than you give him credit for. That said, I agree on all of your other predictions.

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Post by DirkGently » 4 years ago

I'm more optimistic than you generally.

Gerrard I think is a no. Being plot-relevant doesn't give that much traction imo. Archangel Avacyn is more reliable as a board-wipe protection and has more interesting fair strategies imo. I think Gerrard is just for eggs players, and as such, will find a small home. I'd confidently say under 500...400 makes it harder but I still think under 400.

I think chainer will go over, but I'm not confident. I'm not super interested in him personally.

I think greven will be around 500. I don't think he'll be anywhere near most played.

I think Marisi could make it. It's the one I'm most interested in of the three naya commanders (not that it's saying much as I have no interest in the other two).

Elsha I think will be very popular. I think she'll crack 600.

I'm surprised you think morphs is a popular strategy. I think Kadena has no chance of 600 (I'll happily spot her 200 though).

Rayami I bet cracks 200. Odric is similar looking and has 400, except he's mono-freaking-white. Double strike can't be THAT much of a selling point.

I think Volrath will make 600 but who knows.
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Post by Hawk » 4 years ago

DirkGently wrote:
4 years ago
I'm more optimistic than you generally.

Gerrard I think is a no. Being plot-relevant doesn't give that much traction imo. Archangel Avacyn is more reliable as a board-wipe protection and has more interesting fair strategies imo. I think Gerrard is just for eggs players, and as such, will find a small home. I'd confidently say under 500...400 makes it harder but I still think under 400.

I think chainer will go over, but I'm not confident. I'm not super interested in him personally.

I think greven will be around 500. I don't think he'll be anywhere near most played.

I think Marisi could make it. It's the one I'm most interested in of the three naya commanders (not that it's saying much as I have no interest in the other two).

Elsha I think will be very popular. I think she'll crack 600.

I'm surprised you think morphs is a popular strategy. I think Kadena has no chance of 600 (I'll happily spot her 200 though).

Rayami I bet cracks 200. Odric is similar looking and has 400, except he's mono-freaking-white. Double strike can't be THAT much of a selling point.

I think Volrath will make 600 but who knows.
Thanks!

Gerrard: I dunno, man - he is REALLY popular, and it's a bit tough to compare him to Tajic, Blade of the Legion and Archangel Avacyn as a Wraths Tribal commander because he turns your boardwipes into one-sided Plague Winds (that retrigger EtB triggers) instead of just allowing you to spam Wraths with impunity. That seems pretty powerful to me, and also makes him an interesting "Aristocrats" commander. I think all that and a main dish of Eggs will make him quite popular. Not Feather popular and maybe not even Firesong popular, but I think he'll crack 400 easy.

Chainer: I fully admit I was trying to be controversial and I'd love to be wrong. His ability to loop #value creatures is pretty powerful for sure.

Greven going to 1000+ to challenge the Lord of Riots, Defiler, Showstopper, and Parun of his own named guild is a bit of a stretch too, but I think it could happen. The dude just does so much, and Rakdos-aligned commanders outside of LoR and Grenzo are so medium.

AniMorphs has 300 lists on EDHRECs, and Kadena is A) the face of her deck (and thus likely to stay its commander as inertia sets in for folks who buy it), B) mooooostly better for such a strategy (Since you can T4 Kadena and immediately play a facedown card and draw), and C) only capable of that, such that it won't feel like you are wasting her potential if you build her asMorph Tribal. 600 is ambitious of me to say but I think she'll hit 400 in her sleep.

Rayami v Odric: Crucially, Odric gives those keywords to the entire crew while Rayami keeps them for himself First and Foremost. That makes Odric a master of token-pumping and Rayami a solo killer. I stand by him struggling to crack 200.

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Post by Cyberium » 4 years ago

Not keen on numbers so I'll just say how I feel.

K'rrk will be popular. He's very black in and out. I'm hoping for similar design for future mono-color legends and mono-friendly cards, where players benefit from playing spell/ability/permanents of respective color. Rayami

Anje doesn't require madness to be a combo engine, though at the moment players need to discover games beyond Worldgorger Dragon for her to be less straightforward. I love Greven for his lore and mechanics. Chainer has potential but so far I don't see him beyond combo and reanimation decks. I don't believe their numbers will be high, but perhaps they will have a moderate following.

Gerrard is a refreshing sight for Boros as he opens up many doors. His lack of combat abilities is regrettable, but I'm sure many would play him beyond battles. I predict moderate fan base.

Elsha and Sevinne offers good value and that alone already warrant popularity. Pramikon requires politics and management, the difficulty will keep players from liking it more than the other two.

Tahngarth is not my cup of tea. I like combat in general, but Tahngarth is less useful in 1v1 than in multiplayer. I prefer someone with more consistent performance. And because combat is often lacking in EDH games, Tahngarth may not find enough fans.

I like all three Naya commanders. Atla is the slowest but will yield the best value, while Marisi has my need for chaos tingling. Ghired is boring, but being pure value would get him popularity.

I don't feel Grismold. I might use him in Thantis to enforce battles but that's about it.

Kadena is value so she will see play, but less so than other value legends from 2019 because of her narrow theme. Rayami has potential, but as noted above combat is not as beloved as combo/control and her second ability requires her to be in play when creatures die, which could be an issue, but her auto-hosing creature-based combos is great on her own. Volrath is my favorite legend of this year and will be the first deck I make, but him requiring set up (and creatures he copy are prone to removal) might render him less friendly amongst players.

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Post by ISBPathfinder » 4 years ago

My expectations of the commanders I will see the most of:

Rayami, First of the Fallen - Its a very different kind of build your own voltron commander. I am not really sure but the other legends in this wedge just felt really narrow and more awkward in my opinion. Most of what I have heard so far seems to point at players interested in Rayami.
Elsha of the Infinite - I suspect of the Jeskai deck it will be the most played commander. My only uncertainty is that Jeskai like literally JUST got their hands on Kykar, Wind's Fury who has been quite good. I think Elesha of the Jeskai deck is probably going to be the more popular played commander though.
Ghired, Conclave Exile - The build for this commander seems straightforward and reasonable. The naya legends didn't really blow me away. The other commanders were a bit hit or miss but Gerrard looks more like a combo eggs deck rather than a deck players will flock to in my opinion.
The RB deck in my opinon is a total crapshoot. I feel like Anje Falkenrath will NOT be the commander that players flock to. I suspect the mono black legend or chainer maybe but really it has so many viable and different commanders that I think this one is harder to guess.
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Post by CommanderMaster999 » 4 years ago

I still wish k'rrick was actually gix since I thought it was gonna be him because of Gavin's

I think k'rrick is gonna hit top 10 easily heck mayhe he be he most played mono black legendary and he might reach 1000 already up to 59 decks on edhrec and that's just the starting line for commanders of this year

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