The Current State of Finance in MTG

wildfire393
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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

I was doing some interesting queries the other day, and figured it would be worth discussing:

Using just the price of the cheapest available copy, the following statements hold true:

In Standard, there is only a single card over $25: The Great Henge

In Pioneer, there are zero cards over $50. There are only 5 cards over $25: The Great Henge, Emrakul, the Promised End, Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath, and Crucible of Worlds.

In Modern, there are zero cards over $100. There are seven cards over $50, and only one of those is over $60 and it sees literal zero play in Modern - Sliver Legion. The other six are Kozilek, Butcher of Truth, Wrenn and Six, Cavern of Souls, Misty Rainforest, Scalding Tarn, and Oboro, Palace in the Clouds. Of these, the fetches and Cavern were both reprinted this year as Expeditions, W6 was printed last year, and Kozilek and Legion both had a reprint last year, with only Oboro never having been reprinted.

In Legacy/Commander/Vintage, there are only six cards not on the Reserved List over $100, and every single one is a Portal: Three Kingdoms card that has either never been reprinted or only reprinted as a Judge Foil (Warrior's Oath, Zodiac Dragon, and Lady Sun of the former, and Imperial Seal, Capture of Jingzhou, and Ravages of War of the latter).
There are 17 non-Reserved List, non-P3K cards over $50 in these formats. Seven are the same from Modern, and the other ten are:
Allosaurus Shepherd - Just printed this year in JMP
Food Chain - Reprinted this year on The List
Force of Will - Reprinted this year in 2XM
Jeweled Lotus - Just printed this year in CMR
Mana Crypt - Reprinted this year in Mystery Booster and 2XM
Mana Drain - Reprinted this year in CMR
Sylvan Tutor - Reprinted this year as a Judge Foil
Cabal Coffers, Tainted Pact, Ydwen Efreet - Not reprinted in the past year
In these formats there are 102 total cards over $25 that are not Reserved or P3K

Meanwhile, on the Reserved list:
85 are over $100
32 more are over $50
42 more than that are over $25

Just some food for thought.

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

glad that at least the prices are less in pioneer.

it's amazing how Scalding Tarn is able to keep itself high. Probably one of the most sought after fetch land. Still remember the guy who bought the playset from me, he expended cash, but he's happy to finally have a set of tarns.

and lastly, reserved list cards.. it's hard for their prices to drop.
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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

I'm actually surprised Tarn and Rainforest are *only* $55ish. They were still around $100 last year, and the reprints have all been sparse since then.

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Post by BeneTleilax » 3 years ago

Good. MTG finance is a blight, and cheaper cards mean more people can play the game as they want.

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

@wildfire393

sorry, was not able to elaborate. What I mean is despite everything that happened.. less people playing the game, because pandemic. A lot of modern cards going down in price. Tarn still manage to keep itself above 50 dollars. The card that destroyed my wallet is tarmogoyf.. by "destroyed", I bought a playest at 50-60 dollars each, now he's down to 30 something. If I sold the goyfs 2017 or 2018, instead of the tarns, I would have been in a better position now - wrong decision, but I guess that's why hindsight is always 20/20.
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Post by VikingV » 3 years ago

2020 is indeed the year of hindsight

wildfire393
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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
3 years ago
@wildfire393

sorry, was not able to elaborate. What I mean is despite everything that happened.. less people playing the game, because pandemic. A lot of modern cards going down in price. Tarn still manage to keep itself above 50 dollars. The card that destroyed my wallet is tarmogoyf.. by "destroyed", I bought a playest at 50-60 dollars each, now he's down to 30 something. If I sold the goyfs 2017 or 2018, instead of the tarns, I would have been in a better position now - wrong decision, but I guess that's why hindsight is always 20/20.
I try not to look at hindsight too much because it's easy to get stuck on what something was worth when you traded/sold it vs what it was at its peak. When it comes to non-RL cards, they fluctuate so much it seems that you can never pin down an exact feeling. I traded a Tarmogoyf for an Onslaught Delta + Mire back when both piles were like $70. At its worst, Goyf was nearly $200 and the fetches dropped down to like $20 total after the Khans reprint and I was kicking myself. Now? Futuresight Goyf is like $60 and the two Onslaught fetches are $90, and by the cheapest versions Goyf is sub $40 and the fetches are still >$55.

Even with RL cards that go up up up, it's easy to kick myself over trading away a LED when they were like, sub $10, but then I go back and look at stuff like Gaea's Cradle which I bought for $23, or Tablernacle at just over $200 that have gone up by an order of magnitude.

Only two prices/values actually matter: What you paid or traded for the card when you acquired it, and what you get paid or traded for in exchange when you get rid of it.

Personally, I never spend money on the game that I can't afford, and I rarely trade cards away (and even more seldomly sell them off).

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

It took me months to get all 4 goyfs, because can only afford to order one each month from scg. I would use the cheapest delivery method, and will be hoping / praying the goyf arrives safely. Thankfully, all of them had a safe travel (lol). Currently, I decided not to sell them anymore, since they are the backup wincon of my Angel Feeder combo deck - goyfs are good at attracting removal to themselves, so the opponent has less for the spikefeeder. :)
__________

speaking of finance.. looking at the prices on the first post. Do people think prices are going higher or lower, as this pandemic rolls on?
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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

I'm not certain how much the pandemic is really affecting prices. Commander players are still finding ways to play Commander, many of them by webcam, so a lot of the demand is still there. Competitive paper formats may be dropping off a bit, but a lot of that has other explanations. Nobody is playing Pioneer because WotC took too heavy a hand in bannings and it just doesn't seem to be worth investing in when your deck could get banned arbitrarily. Modern and Legacy are suffering a lot from the past two years of overpowered cards crowding out a lot of popular older decks.

You can tell the demand is still largely there because you can look at popular Commander cards that have not received reprints and how they've gone up. Cabal Coffers was $45 a year ago and is $65 now, peaking in June near $80. The effect is even more pronounced in Reserved List cards - Gaea's Cradle has doubled from $350 at the end of last year to $700 now. Survival of the Fittest went from $80 to $200 over the past 12 months.

The big thing that seems to be depressing prices is an aggressive reprint strategy. Many of the cards in the >$50 category are cards that were closer to $100 in 2018 or 2019 but have received reprints since then. Force of Will, JTMS, Mana Crypt, Misty Rainforest, Scalding Tarn, Scroll Rack, Crucible of Worlds, Staff of Domination, Vampiric Tutor, and many others have seen a drop in prices as new versions become available. With the explosion of supplemental sets and products as vehicles for reprints (Jumpstart, Commander Legends, Mystery Booster, Double Masters, The List in Set Boosters, Expeditions, Secret Lairs, multiple rounds of Commander decks, Commander Collection), there's more expensive cards being reprinted now than at any other point in Magic's history besides possibly the Chronicles/4th Ed era.

The biggest question in my mind now is, how long until this particular golden goose runs dry and WotC/Hasbro turn to more desperate measures? At some point with aggressive reprints, they're going to run into a wall where nothing reprintable carries enough financial draw to make boosters and boxed sets fly off the shelf with the fervor they've come to expect in the past two years. Maybe not next year, maybe not the year after, but I can certainly see a point in 3-5 years where sales slow down and they start eyeing the "Break in Case of Emergency" glass around the Reserved List.

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

hmm, 3-5 years? That is a good estimate. However, the people at Hasbro are trained at thinking of ways on getting our money. :omg:

They would probably have a solution by the time the "golden goose" runs dry. :halo:
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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

I guess we'll see. Their current strategy seems to be:

A) Print a ton of products to make people buy more things - but this runs into a ceiling eventually, we're basically at oversaturation already.
B) Reprint everything that's a chase card that you can - but these are fast running out unless they change the definition of "That you can"
C) Push new cards really hard to sell boosters - but players have reacted very negatively to this.

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

just dropping in an opinion Theoretically, they can..

a. Print a new strong rare card now. Don't reprint it for at least 3 years. And in those 3 years, print cards that makes decks that need the strong card. Reprint after 3 years as mythic into a set.

b. Make a new mechanic that works well with various mythics or rares that have not been reprinted in years. Reprint mythics and rares one by one into new products.
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Post by The N82O Molecule » 3 years ago

I can speak on behalf of purchasers.

2020 was exhausting.

as a collector you want all the minotaurs and all the kobolds and all the unicorns. . .you want all the cards. at least 1. I know the best of things come in pairs and in this case 4 is supreme.

this is where I bring up walk the dead. talk about fomo. like, im pretty sure we are not going to get perfect copies of these cards ever again. close maybe, perhaps even better worded. it makes me feel sort of gross though.

the rest of the secret lair feels like a bill in congress. it has one real important thing that everyone can use. . .and then on the back end there's all this other stuff attached that drags it down (looking at you Dovescape, and no offense to you whom like it)

the thing is im ok with supporting my favorite game. but I want it to be fun, and the fun seems to be getting sucked out, mainly cause of affordability.

what was cool was the alt art and having multiple art versions. this works cause even if you get the most basic simple art, you still got a version and that's great. but switching that you have to buy this pack to get this and another higher price pack to get that card, ouch bruh. rise of Eldraine had this. and now they are making cooler and cooler cards to head edh deck packs, but I don't want to buy 99 for 1 card. maybe im to pretentious and nothing is good enough for me

another thing I was hoping on with zendy was the collector packs, but the just end up being a uncommon loot bag. as in they don't really boost your chances of getting more rares, and you don't get a full play set of commons, which in my opinion is why you buy a booster box in the first place. so im back to just buying draft booster packs like god intended, forgetting all the other fluff that's involved.

which leads me to jumpstart. cool cool. but it falls into a bracket now (this is new) that the commander booster pack runs into. it only takes getting the same card 5 times for me to just stop buying it. commander cards (legends and commander able cards and such) are great as a 1 of, 2 of its like ok a trader, 3 is getting on the other side of diminishing returns. when your buying packs you really only want the good cards. and here is the thing about good cards

so good cards, I suppose back when cards were first being designed they were to be fun with in the game. but now we use the term "pushed" which means the there are cards specifically made to be specific. anyone find this unattractive? I want to pick what is good. good to me, the purchaser. make each card the best it can be and let me sort out the difference. now rares are limited rares and pushed rares and bomb rares and junk rares and then hasbro puts there greedy hands on it and squeezes out all the sweet juices and now we are left with buffet sirloin while knowing the that is not what we into. I want bomb steak, like from chipotle. (American commercial humor there for those confused)(and this is also a sarcastic comment cause chipotle isn't bomb steak)

anyway, im liking the look of kaldheim, and I hope they slow down some and let me absorb the sets a little more. but the hairy potter theme and d&d theme seem sorta un entertaining as I see it meow. party really killed my vibe in zendy, ally for life I guess

cheers

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Post by wildfire393 » 3 years ago

Yeah, being a collector this year was exhausting. I tried multiple strategies and none of them were great. I mostly want one of everything so that I can build a Commander deck with whatever niche card strikes my fancy. So buying booster boxes gives me a bunch of chaff commons and uncommons to dispose of, while still leaving me to have to hunt down missing rares. I can buy an MTGO redemption set, but those aren't available for weeks after the set releases and never show up for supplemental products. There's some hand-collated sets that pop up on eBay, but there's no guarantee those ever get listed. And it still leaves me having to track down the PW deck/Commander deck exclusives, which generally means either shelling out more than the sealed decks for the singles, or buying the sealed decks and finding a way to dispose of the 55-97 cards that I don't need.

And then there's the supplementals. Commander Legends I bought a booster box of because I was doing a webcam sealed league with some buddies. And I bought a Collector's Box because I figured that'd give me a solid head-start on completing the rest of the set with some neat foils and extended art cards to boot. Of course, I got a ton of duplicate rares from my box and basically zilch in terms of new Mythics and had to track down a pile of missing singles, including a frustrating TCGPlayer exchange wherein I ordered like 60 cards and spent an hour or so re-configuring the order as cards kept getting bought out from under me, and then when the order finally went through, the next day one of the shops cancelled several cards that had spiked, citing "inventory error" and TCGPlayer backed them on it.

And I haven't even started on completing the new cards from Jumpstart because I've been waiting for the "second wave" to hit and bring down prices.

Overall the whole thing has been overwhelming and frustrating and I've got piles of unsorted cards that I need to file away and I just don't have the time because more new cards keep coming in.

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Post by drmarkb » 3 years ago

This was the year to get out of Modern staples.
RL, esp RL with EDH use, is king. RL with no use is just a bunch of bad speculators hoping to sell to others and rip off the odd person collecting sets. RL such as Mox D , wheel, duals etc. That is a different story.

For people celebrating crashing of prices, two points.
One. If the RL went and Lotus et al were all 5 bucks, WOTC would have just sold you a chess set. Great for you, bad for them. You have everything you ever need. Vintage and Legacy are much better formats than Standard, you stop buying cards, the only way you get people to pay more is when Lotus mark 2 sacs for 4 mana. They want you to keep playing, and keep paying, that won't stop. The model they have is awful for people drafting and hoping to get their money back a bit off draft, but other than that it hammers collector tendency players, not players with no interest in collecting, and the former subsidise the latter. You do not need to have an extended art etched whatever. You need the real card to play, and they are generally cheaper for most formats, but the collectors have proven themselves a lucrative source of revenue, and their opening of collector boosters drives down the price of regular versions for everyone else. Those buying collector boosters have been royally stuffed on value too, a few finance types got hurt by them, but mainly it was collectors paying fat wads of cash and opening half of it in value terms as prices plummeted. How long will collectors put up with it?

Two. If you have been playing for ten years, and had a 6k modern collection/decks, it is probably worth 1k now.
That is fine as long as you are not being forced to spend $$$ to be competitive every two months. How you going to pay for your 3 uros? Because your Modern staples you paid 400 for are now worth 130, and you still need to spend. You are collateral damage.

Pioneer is cheap, but they really crapped all over Modern players with their reprint policies and pushed cards, which are actually aimed primarily at casuals. Pioneer will stay cheap as competitive types are unsure if it will survive. For all the talk of upset, Legacy is still a niche community driven format whose players love it. The price of RL staples in Legacy collections has sky rocketed, meaning players of Legacy in paper can easily find trade value to dabble elsewhere. If you had a 10k legacy binder at the start of the year with RL staples, it will have most likely doubled or more.

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Post by SquirrelToken » 3 years ago

wildfire393 wrote:
3 years ago
Yeah, being a collector this year was exhausting.
Absolutely this, 110%.

Every year I shave one or two more things off of the categories that I collect.

2014 "Wow, FOW. I guess I won't collect all the judge promos anymore."
2015 "How many prerelease cards? I guess I won't collect all of those anymore. Masterpieces? No way no how."
2016 "Another Masters set? I guess I won't bother collecting the Masters sets anymore."
2017 "Another anthology? Okay, just forget the reprint decks."
2018 "Maybe I can catch up with releases ... wait, WTF is Mythic Edition?"
2019 "Oooooh, I got laid off. Guess I'm out for Modern Horizons."
2020 "Mystery Booster? The List?"
2021 Who knows, probably this is the year I ditch Secret Lairs.

I used to want one of each unique printing of a card. Now I don't even pick up every card that gets printed, leaving me scrambling to find things like Ohran Frostfang when I want to build Toski. I'm still trying to get one of each printing of every angel and dragon, but with all the reprints that have been happening in box sets and Jumpstart and The List and Mystery Booster I'm even behind on THAT. I'm missing about 75 legendaries from the last year. That's about the last thing I'm still clinging to - angels, dragons, legendaries and dual lands (not RV duals, just any duals that get printed, I pick up because manabases are key).

I don't think that we'll see WOTC deciding to break the RL in a couple years - Secret Lair has been a huge shot in the arm for them, and I can see that going the Signature Spellbook route (replacing the stained glass walker with showcase frame walkers, and 10% of Lairs have a foil walker - now how many Lairs are you gonna buy?). Artist Series lairs ensure that they'll never run out of cards to reprint, and crossover IP means that their reach has grown beyond MTG players. How many Potterheads are going to buy Secret Lair X Harry Potter and the Witches of Strixhaven? WOTC's strategy is to go wide AND tall. A million different products to appeal to different customers. Boutique stuff like $100 2XM VIP "experience" boosters. More toppers and inserts and chase cards. Collector Boosters for the wannabe whales. Reprints of draft chaff for drafting. So much ... STUFF.

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 3 years ago

so I went to a local game store that usually has a lot of singles. . .but now they don't. . .so is paper magic dea. . .well

if I had to guess there's some consolidation of singles collections but to where?

so this year are you all continuing to buy the same amount or more? in theory you should increase your spending by some percentage each year as interests and taxes increase (obv I know this isn't directly true) or something like that

this year I may buy less as last year has me spent. . .end on a pun love it

anyway im wondering what some of your projections fiscally are all about going into 21 in regards to magic of course

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Post by The Fluff » 3 years ago

so this year are you all continuing to buy the same amount or more? in theory you should increase your spending by some percentage each year as interests and taxes increase (obv I know this isn't directly true) or something like that
buying much less. There's not really much that I want. Spike Feeder + tarmo deck is complete, Mono Red Prowess for modern is almost complete. casual Dog deck also almost complete.

unless Kaldheim produces some cards that could help my current decks, then there's no reason to spend more. I don't compete professionally, so as long as my deck could win a game or two in fnm, then that's fine already.
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Post by motleyslayer » 3 years ago

past few times I've been to the LGS in my area that has traditionally had the best selection by far (last time I was there was Saturday before Christmas), the owner has seemed to be upset at how much various reprints have killed a lot of prices in the past few years and has been debating just getting out of Magic (he's primarily a pawn shopping specializing in collectibles and games).

I'm pretty happy how reprints have been making prices relatively stable and will probably just finish my fetches when they get their reprint later this year. It's kind of always baffled me when lands are most expensive parts of decks

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Post by The N82O Molecule » 3 years ago

motleyslayer wrote:
3 years ago
past few times I've been to the LGS in my area that has traditionally had the best selection by far (last time I was there was Saturday before Christmas), the owner has seemed to be upset at how much various reprints have killed a lot of prices in the past few years and has been debating just getting out of Magic (he's primarily a pawn shopping specializing in collectibles and games).
this makes a lot of sense. . .the over saturation that we all are feeling.

I try to hold solace that as long as all of us do as we do and buy the products and such the game will carry on. I shouldn't make treating my collection like bitcoin (highly volatile and only has value to select persons lol) slow me down. im curious now where the singles market will go if "large" openers aren't opening cause there's no money in it. what will we have, singles conglomerates holding the prices ransom? is that what we have now?

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Post by motleyslayer » 3 years ago

I don't know if I understand finance enough to answer that well but it is in a weird spot right now. There's little reason to open much now though for many reasons. Lack of paper events right now is one. I don't know if many other large openers have stopped, at least in my area. another one I know is still opening a lot of product in hopes of there being more demand post covid. I guess stores with an online site still have reason o have supply

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