2XM: Toppers evaluation

[SquirrelToken]

Hey there, it's your friendly mod SquirrelToken, and today I'd like to take a look at the box toppers of Double Masters (except we're going to look at the foil VIP pack versions - keep that in mind when I refer to "toppers"). We've got 39/40 spoiled at this point (although a couple of the Swords are merely strong speculation), so I thought that I'd run down the list and see what the winners and losers are probably going to be. I tend to think long-term, so some of my winner picks may not be $50 (break-even) at set release. We have a lot of cards to look at, so let's get started.

333 Karn Liberated - Winner. Karn already has an UMA box topper with Jason Chan's iconic art, and the Mark Tedin art may not appeal to all players, but this will still be a solid open.
334 Jace the Mind Sculptor - Winner. This Jace may not catch up with the ultra-rare War of the Spark Mythic Edition, but this is definitely a gorgeous printing of ... Jason Chan's iconic art. Huh.
335 Avacyn, Angel of Hope - Winner. Avacyn already has a judge foil, but she's also got a ton of casual appeal as well as appealing to non-MTG-playing Angel collectors. Personally, I would've preferred to have seen Jason Chan's ... wait, really? Yes. I swear, I'm not sponsored by Massive Black. I just really like Jason's art.
336 Council's Judgment - Loser. Well, they can't all be winners. It's a niche Legacy and EDH playable, but not really a 4-of anywhere.
337 Stoneforge Mystic - Winner. Eventually. I predict a slower start to this card, but this will definitely be the best version of this multi-format all-star. Even if the 2016 judge foil ever gets released, it won't move the needle too much because it looks almost exactly like the GP foil.
338 Brainstorm - Winner. But not as winning as you want it to be. The old school Masques pack foil is probably rarer, and IMO it's a beautiful card that screams "old school". I don't see this threatening that printing, but it may take second place away from the FNM foil.
339 Cyclonic Rift - Winner. Absolutely every blue EDH deck needs this card, and this is the best version (except for a one-of that Chris Rahn drew squirrels on for me, but I digress).
340 Force of Will - Loser. You have to pay life AND discard a card? Ugh. What does this card even do? So much text. (Obviously I'm kidding. This will be the chase card.)
341 Phyrexian Metamorph - Loser. Narrow EDH utility means that only some decks want it, so the demand just won't be there.
342 Dark Confidant - Winner. Not going to touch the judge foil, but it will be a solid second place.
343 Fatal Push - Loser. Big loser. Look, it's clever how the topper art is the sequel to the pack art. I like that. But it's not 2018 anymore. Who's paying more than $2 for a Fatal Push? FNM foils are under $10 - significantly under $10.
344 Thoughtseize - Winner. The Amonkhet Invocations are pretty polarizing, and despite being the chase Invocation from Hour of Devastation, Cashseize hasn't really moved from its price from 3 years ago. This printing will allow people to pick a version that is both showy and legible.
345 Loser. This card hasn't been spoiled yet, but I don't have a good feeling about it. Toxic Deluge - Winner. Looks like I spoke too soon in calling this unknown a loser. This is up there with Cyclonic Rift as the best version of a popular EDH card, except it ALSO sees play in Legacy. This card will be hot, and I apologize to Toxic Deluge for calling it a loser without waiting for it to be spoiled.
346 Blood Moon - Winner. I think. This one's tough. It's already got an Invocation that's dropped in price a bit, but I feel like Blood Moon people have a strong identity and want "their" version, so there's room for this one to take off.
347 Goblin Guide - Loser. Nobody who plays Red Deck Wins is looking to pay more - in mana or money - than they have to.
348 Sneak Attack - Loser. The judge foil will stay on top.
349 Crop Rotation - Loser. The topper can't compete with the Urza's Legacy foil.
350 Doubling Season - Winner. I love this card. And so do you.
351 Exploration - Winner, probably. Another EDH card, but definitely the best version this time. Not as winning as Cyclonic Rift, but still winning.
352 Noble Hierarch - Winner. Again, not going to touch the judge promo, though. We've now got how many premium versions of the best Green creature ever? Judge foil, UMA topper foil, RPTQ foil, and now this one. Still a winner.
353 Atraxa, Praetors' Voice - Winner. I look forward to upgrading my Superfriends deck, and making my less-super friends want to punch me.
354 Kaalia of the Vast - Winner, I think? Probably barely. Scott Fischer art saves this one. Is Kaalia still popular? I don't think that the play demand can really save this.
355 Meddling Mage - Loser. OG pack foil wins this one.
356 Batterskull - Loser. Singleton tutor target in Modern or star EDH equipment, again it's the kind of card where people buy maybe one, not "I need four!"
357 Blightsteel Colossus - Winner. But not as much as expected.
358 Chrome Mox - Winner. Popular card, and if it ever gets unbanned in Modern it will go through the ROOF.
359 Expedition Map - Loser. Goes in one Modern deck and some EDH decks. Not enough demand.
360 Lightning Greaves - Loser. Won't be able to compete with the Invention.
361 Mana Crypt - Winner. This card could be cut almost in half and probably be worth the pack.
362 Mox Opal - Loser. Sorry Mox, but the Modern ban really hurt you.
363 Sword of Body and Mind - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
364 Sword of Feast and Famine - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
365 Sword of Fire and Ice - Winner. A good sword, even though it's not the best printing.
366 Sword of Light and Shadow - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
367 Sword of War and Peace - Loser. Not a great sword, and not the best printing.
368 Wurmcoil Engine - Loser. Invention will be better.
369 Academy Ruins - Loser. Best version and I personally want one, but that's not enough to push it up to a winner.
370 Urza's Mine - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
371 Urza's Power Plant - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.
372 Urza's Tower - Loser. Expedition Map is basically another Tron piece. These four pieces will all trend together.

Anyone have any comments? Let me know. I'm sure that I'll be incorrect about at least a few of these, but as a reminder there NEED to be losers. The mean value of a foil topper will start at $50 because they're two for $100 (eventually they'll have room to move away from that as VIP boosters go out of print, but as long as they're available at $100/pop, that's where the foil topper values will start). So for every Mana Crypt that's worth a lot, there needs to be a Fatal Push that's just a flop.

[wildfire393]

Personally I'm much higher on the tron lands and Expedition Map than you are. Eldrazi tron is the most played Modern deck and green tron is like #4 or 5. The Tron lands only have a couple of foil printings, and those go for nearly $100 a pop. Map is also played a bit in Legacy in 12post decks and is very popular in EDH. I predict Tron lands fall in the $200-250 range for foil toppers. Map maybe sits at $50 which I guess is a loser if we're expecting 3 digits on a lot of these, but it's still pretty decent and pays for its half of a VIP booster.

I think the Swords all stand to lose a bit. They all got Masterpiece printings in Kaladesh, and several of them have sweet judge foils too. Given that they're cards that are never played as more than a 1-of in any format they're legal in, and even then the best swords are the often-cut third best Stoneforge target for Legacy. Fire and Ice is the best Stoneforge target after Batterskull in Modern, but it's one of the ones with a sweet Judge print. Maybe Feast and Famine picks up a bit as the best Commander sword, but I'm not convinced.

Commander-only cards are only really going to be chase if they're the pimpest available version. Avacyn, sure. Cyc Rift, definitely. SoLaS? Likely not.

[SquirrelToken]

I probably should've defined "winner" and "loser" better. Winners break the $50 mark. Losers do not. So some cards like SOFI and SOFF will be winners, even if better versions exist.

As far as why I'm so down on the four Tron pieces, right now foils are preselling on TCGp for about $33 each.

[SquirrelToken]

As a note, I'd browsed through TCGp to see presale prices. I hadn't really done a deep dive, so some of the prices that I assumed were for nonfoils are actually for foils. Also, Avacyn is starting really, really high - $350. Now, I don't really believe that we live in a world where I can trade an Avacyn topper for two Mana Crypt toppers, but that's where she's starting. I expect that price to fall quite a bit, but not down to $50 - I called her a winner, and I'm sticking with that call.

[wildfire393]

That's fair. It might help to list the current prices in your opening post.

What's interesting is that it appears at the moment that some non-foil versions of the box toppers are going for more than the foil versions. This makes some sense as the nonfoils are 2 per $300+ box, while the foils are 2 per $100 pack - IF you discount the value of everything else. It also looks like not all cards have prices for both foil and nonfoil.

Looking at current prices, it looks like the cuttoff for "winners" at the moment is approximately Goblin Guide, who's going for a hair under $50 at the moment. Above that currently, in order, are:

Force of Will
Mana Crypt
Avacyn
Chrome Mox
Jace
Sword of Feast and Famine
Karn
Doubling Season
Blightsteel Colossus
Atraxa
Batterskull
Kaalia
Sword of Fire and Ice
Exploration
Blood Moon
Stoneforge Mystic
Dark Confidant
Cyclonic Rift
Mox Opal
Noble Hierarch
Academy Ruins

And below it are:

Greaves
Wurmcoil
The Three Tron Lands
Expedition Map
Sneak Attack
Council's Judgment
Crop Rotation
Phyrexian Metamorph
Brainstorm
Fatal Push
Meddling Mage
Sword of War and Peace
Thoughtseize (no price entries yet so treated as $0)

From the current "Winners" I'd expect to see some price loss from EDH-specific cards with limited or 1-of homes in 60-card constructed formats, namely: Both Swords, Atraxa, Blightsteel, Avacyn, Kaalia, Batterskull, Doubling Season, Mana Crypt, and Academy ruins.
I'd expect to see some price gains in 4-of constructed cards from the bottom list, namely: Tron Lands, Expedition Map, Crop Rotation, Brainstorm, Meddling Mage, Thoughtseize, Sneak Attack.
Whether or not this pushes those cards into the other category remains to be seen. But I think with the amount of sheer value in this set, many cards aren't going to hold over $50, and we'll probably see most cards come down to the $30-60 range with only Force, Jace, Crypt, Thoughtseize, and maybe Karn keeping pricetags above $100.

[wildfire393]

Well, we've had a week for prices to shift a little, so here's where we're at now:

Most expensive to least expensive

Force of Will
Mana Crypt
Avacyn, Angel of Hope
Jace, the Mind Sculptor
Sword of Feast and Famine
Blightsteel Colossus
Doubling Season
Kaalia of the Vast
Atraxa, Praetors' Voice
Sword of Light and Shadow
Sword of Fire and Ice
Karn Liberated
Thoughtseize
Exploration
Batterskull
Blood Moon
Chrome Mox
Stoneforge Mystic
Sword of Body and Mind
Cyclonic Rift
Mox Opal
Academy Ruins
Noble Hierarch
Toxic Deluge - CUTOFF POINT FOR over $50
Dark Confidant
Lightning Greaves
Sword of War and Peace
Expedition Map
Goblin Guide
Urza's Mine
Urza's Tower
Urza's Power Plant
Sneak Attack
Brainstorm
Wurmcoil Engine
Fatal Push
Crop Rotation
Council's Judgment
Phyrexian Metamorph
Meddling Mage

Chrome Mox seems to be the biggest loser, sliding down to under $75, taking it from the fourth most valuable to the 17th.
Sword of Body and Mind came in higher than I would have expected.
Goblin Guide dropped into the "loser" category, as did Dark Confidant and Exploration.
Cyclonic Rift, Noble Hierarch, Academy Ruins, Mox Opal, Toxic Deluge, and Sword of Body and Mind are all at risk of dropping under $50 as well. This is pretty shocking for some of these cards like Opal and Hierarch which were more expensive than that for their regular versions as of even a few months ago. Rift also seems undervalued given how good it is in Commander.

[SquirrelToken]

Well, we've had a week for prices to shift a little, so here's where we're at now:

Chrome Mox seems to be the biggest loser, sliding down to under $75, taking it from the fourth most valuable to the 17th.
Sword of Body and Mind came in higher than I would have expected.
Goblin Guide dropped into the "loser" category, as did Dark Confidant and Exploration.
Cyclonic Rift, Noble Hierarch, Academy Ruins, Mox Opal, Toxic Deluge, and Sword of Body and Mind are all at risk of dropping under $50 as well. This is pretty shocking for some of these cards like Opal and Hierarch which were more expensive than that for their regular versions as of even a few months ago. Rift also seems undervalued given how good it is in Commander.

Avacyn has further to drop, methinks. She won't hold the #3 slot for long. I am personally bullish on Cyclonic Rift. As you say it's amazing in EDH, and this will probably be the best version of that for at least the near future.

[SquirrelToken]

A lot of stuff seems to be bouncing back just a few days after release. Cyclonic Rift had been down to $45, now it's back to $54. Academy Ruins was $20, and now it's $27. Tron pieces were $30, now they're $45. Jace was $110, now he's $145. I'm wondering if people snapped up some low listings and started the FOMO train rolling. I can't help but think that these prices will still mostly drop (we're scant days after release, after all!). But I've certainly been wrong before.

[The N82O Molecule]

I got Stoneforge Mystic and Thoughtseize as my box toppers

im nigh happy or unhappy about that. I have a bunch of thoughtseize any more since its been printed into standard more than once.

could have been way worse though. so not complaining.