[Official] State of Pioneer Thread (B&R 12/16/2019)

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Post by Mtgthewary » 8 months ago

It started... Mono black today place 1-4 and 7 on mtgo Pioneer. It seems Pioneer will need a lot of fixing and it will be funny watching people getting angry if bans don't stop soon. First all green, now black?

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Post by Mtgthewary » 8 months ago

Why ban green if black dominated? Makes no sense at this moment

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Post by iTaLenTZ » 8 months ago

Next week no changes either so at least another 2 weeks the same story. Maybe they want to postpone more bans from Throne of Eldraine after Christmas so people first spend their money on it. Pathetic company. Huge mistake if you invest in Pioneer at the moment. I will wait until January until I make my move.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 8 months ago

iTaLenTZ wrote:
8 months ago
Next week no changes either so at least another 2 weeks the same story. Maybe they want to postpone more bans from Throne of Eldraine after Christmas so people first spend their money on it. Pathetic company. Huge mistake if you invest in Pioneer at the moment. I will wait until January until I make my move.
There is just no rush to ban cards in Pioneer. Why do you have to be so aggressively hyperbolic ("Pathetic company") in this case? I'd rather Wizards wait a few weeks to gather extra data prior to making any bans. This increases the chance that they make the right bans, which supports long-term format health. Just because they can ban cards weekly doesn't mean they should. It's not like off-season/pre-season Pioneer is hurting for players or event attendance as a function of an unhealthy metagame. Just let the metagame settle and if it settles somewhere broken, wait for bans. I'm all for more bans in Pioneer; they just need to be aimed at the right cards. More data makes that more likely.
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Post by idSurge » 8 months ago

Yeah there is no rush here. I'm fairly confident they will pick off the right cards, if there is a need.
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Post by Mtgthewary » 8 months ago

Like they did in modern?

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Post by idSurge » 8 months ago

Mtgthewary wrote:
8 months ago
Like they did in modern?
No, my view on Modern is pretty clear. Its an after thought, and on decline. Its been bad for over a year, probably 18 months. Wizards has not managed it appropriately for years.
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Post by MAGUSZANIN » 8 months ago

I don't think there's anyone here who thinks that Pioneer will not get at least two more bans before it goes live next year. One of those bans is likely to be from Green, and one is likely to be Copter. And there could be more after the metagame settles and some of the combo decks get refined.

That said, I'm in no rush to ban anything right now, barring maybe Copter. And since it's possible Copter will stabilize at a reasonable level across the aggro decks of the format, we may not need to ban it, though I personally don't expect that to happen. Next week will likely see it banned, but giving people a chance to start maindecking cards like Abrade can't hurt in the long run.

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Post by Pip_Maxwell » 8 months ago

Obviously more bans will be needed until the meta is just diverse enough for WotC's liking.

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Post by The Fluff » 8 months ago

I'm just hoping Nissa, Flayer, and tracker would not be banned.
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Post by Arkmer » 8 months ago

Nissa, Who Shakes the World, Grim Flayer, and Tireless Tracker?

I was looking to sell my Grim Flayers, I'm not a huge fan of the delirium mechanic and at 2cmc, Push is incredibly relevant. I could see Nissa if ramp makes a comeback with her again, but I don't think it's a huge need. Why Tracker?

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Post by The Fluff » 8 months ago

what I mean is Nissa, Voice of Zendikar. :)

I plan to wait for january before selling extra copies of them. As the price might go a bit higher by then. So fingers crossed no one get's banned. Tracker? Hmm, mentioned only because also on my plan to sell list once the price is good enough.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 8 months ago

Once Upon a Time is being played in over 30% of the decks. Its unmatched consistency leads to boring and repetitive games and accelerates into broken stuff like turn 2 Oko or 5 power on the board every game. During mid to lategame drawing OUaT isn't a dead draw like Llanowar Elves so you get the early game acceleration without any tradeoffs in the mid-lategame. It will 100% get banned. That is why I am mad. Everyone knows OUaT won't make it to January yet Wizards doesn't ban the card immediately but gives people a false sense of security to buy into the card during holidays and then ban it. Also because next Monday probably no bans are announced more people decided to buy into them thinking the card is safe when its clearly not. Wizards is literally ripping people off and any of the consumer trust that is left will be shattered.

I know people who have lost 200-300 euro the past 2 years in Standard by buying into a card for their deck just to get it banned 2 months later. For the average Standard player that money represents 80% of their collection value. They all quit. Besides printing OP stuff that has to be banned there is also a huge cost to not banning cards timely.

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Post by drmarkb » 8 months ago

Yes, bannings have huge cost implications- they cost players and good will. One of the reason Pioneer exists is that it will enable tournaments to have a cheap-ish eternal format that can take heat out of Standard.
OUAT I don't think will be part of that Pioneer scene, for the reasons many have voiced.
I think Copter may be OK- the old dies to doom blade argument, of course, but beyond that potential main deck gravehate exists now they are starting to tack it on again to creatures- the pro black bin hosing 2/1 in m20. Stuff that hurts draws may come our way too- Underworld dreams is not a stellar hoser, and is due a return in the leaks from Theros, so I may be clutching at straws if that is their idea of a hoser, but we have previously had Chains on a stick with Spirit of the Labyrinth, so it is not inconceivable that as decks and tech evolves the copter chopper will not need to get the chop, especially as flexy removal appears to be in vogue. Of course, the fact that all the hate now seems to be critter based is an issue in itself- how good would SOTL be in Legacy as an enchantment you can't bolt/ballista........
Another thing that might help is a new suppression field type card if we ever get one (note to WOTC- don't be arses and make it not affect Planeswalkers, that is what is killing your game)- copters' crew ability is a cost and taxable if WOTC actually had a mind to print cards that efficiently stop people from doing their thing..

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Post by Wraithpk » 8 months ago

Banning Copter would be really short-sighted. We have a 2 archetype format right now when it comes to actually successful decks : green big mana and aggro. The big mana decks are still the best thing in the format, we're just now divided between Field of the Dead and Devotion builds. And what beats big mana? Aggro. What beats aggro? Stuff that Field of the Dead and Green Devotion crush.

Another interesting point is which aggro decks are succeeding. You'll notice that red aggro decks are still not doing well, even though they have all these big mana decks to prey on. This is where Oko is still making his presence felt in the format. Oko decks haven't been dominating, but he's still in almost 30% of decks in the meta. What's the difference between Black aggro and Red aggro? Black aggro can beat Oko.

So to sum everything up: MBA and Copter are not the problem, they're a symptom of the problem. The format is just aligned in such a way that makes it amazingly favorable for MBA. If Field of the Dead and Once Upon a Time get banned, that might open up space in the meta for midrange and control decks that can feed on the aggro decks, and if Oko gets banned it will diversify aggro into other builds, instead of just MBA.
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Post by Arkmer » 8 months ago

Some discussion online about how Mono B has shown it doesn't need Field of the Dead to cover for it. Curious what others are thinking right now.

Personally, I still think Field is the right answer for a ban. I'd have to see some numbers about Mono Black stopping more things built to fight it to really be dissuaded, but it's being played in such density that those numbers don't seem to exist. Additionally, the list with 4 Dark Betrayal makes quite the statement, in my opinion.

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Post by Arkmer » 8 months ago

So here we are on the cusp of another Monday and another deck is certainly poised to see it's cards get the axe. I picked up the results as they came out this week but I never took a look at the overall full week results. From what I've seen/remember Black Aggro had the majority of the top 8 slots by a long shot and at least 2 wins to boot. One of the results had some interesting results because it looked like Black Aggro didn't do as well, but if that's suddenly because the Field of the Dead players stayed home then I think it's evidence that Field is covering for B Aggro in an unhealthy way.

Predictions? I think Field of the Dead is likely but now I could see Copter going or maybe something else from Black Aggro depending on how they interpret the results. I would like Field, Oko, T3feri, and possibly Copter.

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 8 months ago

Very likely: Ban copter and once upon a time.
Possibly: ban field of the dead.

These are all banned in standard cards that are on top of the meta now. There are very few decks not running one or more of those cards right now. Especially copter, that thing is everywhere.

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Post by Mikefon » 8 months ago

Updated prevalence in MTGO top32 (number of decks that made top 32 in PTQ or challenges in MTGO from the last ban).
Mono B 23.6%
Gxx Field of the dead 21.0%
Simic Aggro (all versions) 11.1%
Gruul Aggro 9.9%
G (devotion + stompy) + Gu devotion 7.1%
R and Rb aggro 6.3%
Other 23.9%
Field of the dead, OUAT, Copter and maybe something else from B (Scrounger?) might be at risk of ban.

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Post by Arkmer » 8 months ago

People keep talking about OUaT, but it's dodged bans regardless. I am semi convinced WotC just refuses to let the card go much the same way they avoided banning Nykthos. I'm not claiming the card isn't good, I just have a suspicion that it's on some secret keep list opposed to a watch list.

I do think Field and Copter are still just the cards to look out for on today's ban announcement. If both of those go, what do we assume will move into the top slots? Will OUaT propel green stompy to the top again? Will some form of control emerge? Will Oko take over?

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 8 months ago

https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/a ... Qp4i1WOEYt

Banned copter, once upon a time and field of the dead. I think most of us saw these coming.

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Post by Wraithpk » 8 months ago

I wish they would have waited on Copter, but I sold mine yesterday anyway, lol. OUaT and Field are good bans. Now, I hope everyone is ready for Oko: the format for the next couple weeks, lol.
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Post by iTaLenTZ » 8 months ago

Now they only need to ban Oko and this is the best format ever.

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Post by The Fluff » 8 months ago

Powering down the format, which is a good thing.
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Post by Arkmer » 8 months ago

I would have to agree that the general powering down of the format is a good move. I think many people were hoping to get away from Modern's degeneracy and seeing a bunch of fair play here has been refreshing.

I'm shocked and not shocked about OUaT and happy to see the other two take a tumble as well.

Here's to seeing Oko and T3feri on the ban announcement in the coming weeks.

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