[Official] State of Pioneer Thread (B&R 12/16/2019)

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Post by ascribe » 4 years ago

It's very important to note that so-called miserable play patterns alone are not enough to ban a deck. Nexus had a series of other offenses with play patterns as an "additional factor." Specifically, Nexus decks had the second highest win-rates and high 5-0 prevalence, with the banned deck (Simic Food) as one of its few bad matchups. We can't misinterpret this ban to mean Wizards will ban any deck with an allegedly frustrating play pattern and long match. Other offenses will likely need to be present.
I hear you and you are correct, but that doesn't change the fact that the card is obnoxious and makes for a terrible experience. I'm glad it is gone.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

Soooo... How are people feeling about the format? I think it's important to get a reading and check your thoughts before we move into our first new set since Pioneer's announcement and right before we slow down the ban train.

I'm having a blast on a Sulti midrange/tapout-control style deck, there are quite a few competitive lists showing up every week at my LGS, it feels like a variety of archetypes are viable. The format just feels good right now. Nothing feels dominating, even playing UW control (which looks to be top dog?) has some notably bad matchups and is beatable.
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I looked back at the first 5-0 deck dump and we had a hilariously high 137 different decks. That was clearly unsustainable, so don't let the drop fool or scare you. Our most recent 5-0 deck dump was at 51 lists. I forget what the qualifications are for being in these dumps apart from being a 5-0 list chosen to be released, but it's a thing. By comparison, Modern's last dump was 38 decks.

I do assume that the 51 will consolidate a bit after we get some of the big tournaments out of the way in the next few months and the bans slow down. I think this because with slower bans people will be more confident buying into the top deck(s) and they'll be more highlighted due to the higher profile tournaments.

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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

I'm playing a janky abzan deck with vraska, manlands, and some other good stuff cards. Planning to add some siege rhino as well. Having fun with this format. The most challenging part is creating the manabase. :)
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Post by metalmusic_4 » 4 years ago

I'm playing GR pummeler or a GB dredgeless dredge variant and am having a good time while building soulflayer. My LGS is small and our events don't fire all the time, but no event fires regularly where I am. No one where I am are building tier decks, it's burn, pheonix, jeskia ascendancy and brews here.

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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

with the difficulty in making a stable 3 color mana base due to lack of proper fetch lands.
I'm glad blood moon, spreading seas, and ghost quarter are all not legal in this format.
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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

Just wanted to say that I am really pleased with WOTC's decision to manually police degenerate strategies out of this format. Hopefully we can count on this mentality going forward. That said, I am currently stomping the heck out of folks with my UW control deck and I see based on the article above that others are (finally) exploring these lines as well. Thoughts on T3feri's bannability now that the dust has settled?

I feel like he is keeping simic decks in check and ultimately healthy for the format. He is weak to fast decks and decks that go wide. Seems balanced for Pioneer.
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Post by cfusionpm » 4 years ago

I have been playing a variant of UW Control reminiscent of RTR/THS Standard with the Nyx-Fleece Ram / Archangel of Thune sideboard plan. Been super fun. The slower pace of the format makes scry lands and the slower unconditional removal like Detention Sphere and Cast Out super playable. It feels really strong, but I still get pummeled by the occasional aggro decks (especially RG aggro or UR with their own counterspells), and the green ramp decks can be a tossup. So far it's been considerably more interesting and fun than the dumpster fire of Modern these days.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

robertleva wrote:
4 years ago
Thoughts on T3feri's bannability now that the dust has settled?
I'd love to see T3feri banned to be perfectly honest. I rest on it just being a massive design mistake. As far as reality is concerned, I don't think UW warrants a ban; the deck has some weaknesses and struggles with a few things. It's certainly powerful and I believe the most played deck right now, but I doubt it gets a ban thrown its way. I've seen a few decks make a good match for UW where this never felt like it was the case against Oko, Nexus, or other bans.

Until the meta starts mandating things like Thought Distortion or other very powerful anti-control cards, I think UW is probably safe.

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Post by Ed06288 » 4 years ago

Kinda wish g/b midrange was doing better. I guess the format is alright. You have arclight phoenix as tempo, ral lotus storm as your combo deck. Plenty of aggro, ramp, and control too. It's easy to port over a lot of modern decks. Too bad grim flayer, kalitas, and liliana of the last hope are getting expensive. Fabled passage is overrated but is still a 2 or 3 of. It seems easier just to buy tarmogoyfs and build modern traverse shadow with slightly off color khans fetches.

Kinda cool that courser of kruphix is a good card. I wish Siege rhino was played more. Kalitas does a reasonable impression of rhino I guess. I want to get into the format but don't really see the point.

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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

So the new Heliod + Walking Ballista is a two card, turn 5, mono white combo in Pioneer. Neither card is useless on it's own, but it wont just slide into any existing shell and function reliably. The combo will need a full deck to support it. So we are probably looking at a UW combo control hybrid.

I hate combo decks in genral so I am no expert, but that's my take.
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Post by MAGUSZANIN » 4 years ago

robertleva wrote:
4 years ago
So the new Heliod + Walking Ballista is a two card, turn 5, mono white combo in Pioneer. Neither card is useless on it's own, but it wont just slide into any existing shell and function reliably. The combo will need a full deck to support it. So we are probably looking at a UW combo control hybrid.

I hate combo decks in genral so I am no expert, but that's my take.
UW Combo Control, or a friend and I were talking about an Abzan CountersCombo deck, using Constrictor, Scales and a few other cards to make the Heliod and Ballista much better on their own.

Add some discard for use against Control and Combo and lifegain to survive the Aggro decks and we could end up with something very close to the old Modern CoCo Combo decks. An aggressive midrange deck backed with disruption and a combo finish.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

I expect this list to be as effective as potentially faster Twin. It can go off on T3 and because it's mono White, literally anything playing a Plains is suspect. UW seems like a strong candidate for first drafts, I could see a WB tapout control that can oops into this combo being good. Even a reasonable to bad White Weenie build could use both pieces effectively enough and then happen to have both together.

I said it in the Pioneer spoiler thread, but I really think this is our next ban if WotC intends to keep this level of grip on the format's power.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

Arkmer wrote:
4 years ago
I expect this list to be as effective as potentially faster Twin. It can go off on T3 and because it's mono White, literally anything playing a Plains is suspect. UW seems like a strong candidate for first drafts, I could see a WB tapout control that can oops into this combo being good. Even a reasonable to bad White Weenie build could use both pieces effectively enough and then happen to have both together.

I said it in the Pioneer spoiler thread, but I really think this is our next ban if WotC intends to keep this level of grip on the format's power.
I wouldn't worry too much about the magical scenario of T3, four-card combo wins in Pioneer. For reference, to get this win, you'll need acceleration on T1, Heliod on T2, and then Ballista on X=2 plus Radiant Fountain on T3. You can also substitute a bad lifelink spell like Mortal's Ardor instead of Fountain, but then you're playing Ardor and Fountain in your deck.

I'd be much more nervous about the other strengths of this combo. For instance, you can drop Heliod on T2 with acceleration or T3 without and then just play a normal game of Magic for as long as you want...until you hit 6 mana and can win out of the blue. Heliod plus other cards can probably generate enough value to play a strong, grindy game of creature-based Magic, but now you have this constant threat of losing out of the blue to a topdecked Ballista. Heliod is extremely difficult for most decks to interact with once he hits play. Ballista is also a valuable card on its own, particularly in a Hardened Scales shell (which, incidentally, Heliod also pairs with). The combo is also much less color intensive than Saheeli's Jeskai requirements, and can win at instant speed once both pieces are out. If you have enough mana, your opponent will need multiple removal spells to beat reactivations of either Heliod or Ballista.

This is where the combo really shines and where the Twin comparison is more apt than people are giving credit. Twin creatures allowed you to play a tempo game in a URx control/tempo shell with a combo plan B. Heliod Ballista lets you have a combo plan B finish to whatever other grindy, midrangey, and/or aggro plan A you want to entertain instead. If this deck posts significant 5-0 finishes and/or above average win rates, it will almost certainly eat a ban along the same lines as Guardian.
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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
4 years ago
Arkmer wrote:
4 years ago
I expect this list to be as effective as potentially faster Twin. It can go off on T3 and because it's mono White, literally anything playing a Plains is suspect. UW seems like a strong candidate for first drafts, I could see a WB tapout control that can oops into this combo being good. Even a reasonable to bad White Weenie build could use both pieces effectively enough and then happen to have both together.

I said it in the Pioneer spoiler thread, but I really think this is our next ban if WotC intends to keep this level of grip on the format's power.
I wouldn't worry too much about the magical scenario of T3, four-card combo wins in Pioneer. For reference, to get this win, you'll need acceleration on T1, Heliod on T2, and then Ballista on X=2 plus Radiant Fountain on T3. You can also substitute a bad lifelink spell like Mortal's Ardor instead of Fountain, but then you're playing Ardor and Fountain in your deck.

I'd be much more nervous about the other strengths of this combo. For instance, you can drop Heliod on T2 with acceleration or T3 without and then just play a normal game of Magic for as long as you want...until you hit 6 mana and can win out of the blue. Heliod plus other cards can probably generate enough value to play a strong, grindy game of creature-based Magic, but now you have this constant threat of losing out of the blue to a topdecked Ballista. Heliod is extremely difficult for most decks to interact with once he hits play. Ballista is also a valuable card on its own, particularly in a Hardened Scales shell (which, incidentally, Heliod also pairs with). The combo is also much less color intensive than Saheeli's Jeskai requirements, and can win at instant speed once both pieces are out. If you have enough mana, your opponent will need multiple removal spells to beat reactivations of either Heliod or Ballista.

This is where the combo really shines and where the Twin comparison is more apt than people are giving credit. Twin creatures allowed you to play a tempo game in a URx control/tempo shell with a combo plan B. Heliod Ballista lets you have a combo plan B finish to whatever other grindy, midrangey, and/or aggro plan A you want to entertain instead. If this deck posts significant 5-0 finishes and/or above average win rates, it will almost certainly eat a ban along the same lines as Guardian.
WOTC seem very attentive to their new format so we may see some reactive bannings if the combo becomes annoying to play against. Your vision of a slow rolling UW control deck that plays normal magic until "oops I just won" is exactly what I had envisioned as well. Neither piece is totally dead on its own. The type of people who want to play those grindy UW decks actually have quite a bit of inevitability with existing cards. I'm not sure how much more effective a deck with an 8 card combo package jammed into it would be compared to an existing configuration.

My initial take is that the combo wont be banned because of UW playing it. If they figure out some stupid broke green accel / creature toolbox type of deck then I see it becoming annoying and getting banned. Just a guess before the card is out tho.
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Post by MAGUSZANIN » 4 years ago

Notably, Constrictor and SpiritAnafenza both allow the combo to go off turn 4 while applying pressure with a 2 drop.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

No changes in today's B&R. Pretty expected.

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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

no changes, things are starting to settle down.
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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

What are people's thoughts on Twiddle Storm? The Lotus Field deck that abuses untap effects to combo into various things. It feels really strong and is very hard to interact with. I'm not sure if other people are seeing this deck often, but I think it's stronger than it gets credit for.

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Post by wtyyyyyy » 4 years ago

This is going to be unpopular given how people in general wax lyrical about this format and praise how good it is but - as a primarily spiky midrange player, this format is atrocious. Short of being forced into big red, there is no other midrange deck playable. It's all banging against 10000 flavours of aggro decks, green ramp/uw control/ lotus storm.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

No, I don't think it's unpopular. At a minimum, some over in the Modern thread seem to have a certain disdain for Pioneer despite the pot calling the kettle. Judging by the discussion they have though, I think they know; at least, I'm certainly not trying to call anyone out by saying this.

That probably doesn't make you feel any better about the Pioneer situation though.

I have some reservations, tbh, despite trying to be upbeat about it. I think a big issue that they are having is that R&D has crammed too much value into too little mana. Part of that is simply due to eternal formats being eternal, but I mostly think when they come out with things like Oko and Questing Beast they are just pushing the problems themselves. It may not be a literal "draw a card" stapled to most new eternal playables but it sure feels like it, and by contrast stapling "draw a card" to removal or counter seems absolutely forbidden below 5 mana. I feel like that difference has led to many of the "hyper linear" arguments (that I tend to agree with) from other threads and likely will come here.

Take Shatter the Sky for example. Is that an upgraded Day of Judgment? Who is more likely to have the 4+ power creature here? The player playing the wrath? Not likely. I wouldn't call this a strictly worse DoJ, but it certainly isn't better. It just puts more cards in the hands of the aggressor while making the control player fall further behind.

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Post by Card Slinger J » 4 years ago

I'm just tired of everyone complaining about Aggro being the only playable archetype in Pioneer when they haven't even bothered to brew something original instead of relying on tournament results to decide what they want to netdeck. Nobody's going to know what the best cards in the format are unless they playtest as they're just making assumptions of what the best cards are based on their performance in other formats.

I think it's too early to assume that Pioneer will end up being another "win on turn 4" format like Modern where degenerate combo decks are as commonplace as in EDH / Commander. It's just that not enough players are giving it enough of a chance to succeed since they're mostly worried about their current investment in Modern going to waste. If the cards tank in value why not just buy list them at their LGS for players who play other formats?
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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

[mention]Card Slinger J[/mention] You are right about people not brewing up their own decks, but that is what is so AWESOME about Pioneer right now. This the time that actual deck builders have a real edge over netdeckers. Whether Pioneer ends up at a Turn 4 modern clone in 5 years is besides the point, you have to get out there right now and explore.
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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

Ban list announcement today mentions Pioneer. Pioneer is officially on the crappy long term ban cycle as the other formats. Additionally they mention the new Heliod + Walking ballista combo. They say they will let it ride until the next announcement and won't ban it until then.

I for one think this will be a popular and effective combo. Get your pieces now and use them until it gets banned.
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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

robertleva wrote:
4 years ago
Get your pieces now and use them until it gets banned.
I sold my Ballistas, did the exact opposite. Maybe too soon, but I also have never really liked combo all that much. I hope this turns into a clear ban and we can move on. I readily accept that combo needs to exist, but they have made a clear stance in banning Cat Combo which was slower, easier to interact with, and required more colors. I'll be glad to pick up Heliod on his ride down to a reasonable price.

Still glad they're allowing data to drive the bans, I just hope they are still aggressive with the actual selection of bans if not the pushed timing of them.

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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

Heliod and Ballista able to dodge a ban. I'm expecting prices to shoot up. And I need to get pithing needles ready too..
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