[Official] State of Pioneer Thread (B&R 12/16/2019)

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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
4 years ago
With dig through time still legal, it's sort of tempting to build a deck around it. I only wonder how long this blue card would stay unbanned? :shhh:
It's a fair card in my opinion and not really in danger of banning. We just don't have the cards to reliably fill up the graveyard in the color combos that want to run this.
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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

I remember seeing a blog last year, but can't remember anymore the name of that blog. They are developing a ur deck.. and said "let's get dig through time banned!" I guess they are not yet succesful, because the card is still legal. :halo:
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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

I took a look through the new Theros cards for self mill that's good enough to get Dig on turn 3 and nothing sticks out as playable. I also think Dig is safe. Turn 4 seems pretty easy, maybe even possible to hold 1-2 mana up after casting it, but turn 3 seems difficult enough to avoid wanting to try it.

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Post by robertleva » 4 years ago

The amount of deck space that needs to go into filling up the graveyard in Pioneer is a real consideration. In modern filling the GY is a given that requires basically no design space. At some point I'm sure new cards will get printed that fill up Pioneer graveyards, but for now I think the Delve cards and Deathrite Shaman are pretty safe.
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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

Anyone watching the PT?

I've watched a few matches so far. Heliod looked good against Ensoul, there was a Dimir Inverter list on camera but I was in a meeting when it came on, just watched Sultai Delirium take on Simic Ramp to show off Uro's power. It's been good so far.

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Post by motleyslayer » 4 years ago

I haven't watched as much of the PT as I'd like to, especially since I haven't done much of anything today.

The Inverter list is super cool and I've kinda been low key hoping Delirium would be playable so I was glad to see the BUG list doing well

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Post by LennX » 4 years ago

How do I find standings for the PT? I can see the decklists, meta % and even the streams but not the standings after each rounds

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

Pioneer has the same answer/threat imbalance as Modern, except magnified because it doesn't go back far enough to the sets where Wizards was still printing stronger answers like Bolt, Leak, and Path. Pioneer tries to hide this with the threats being a turn or two slower than in Modern, so the games "feel" more even, but the reality is that proactive strategies are even further ahead of reactive strategies than in Modern. You just lose to them on T5-T6 instead of T3-T4. This creates an illusion of interactivity, because games are going longer, but as I've seen all weekend, the proactive strategies are heavily favored.
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Post by MAGUSZANIN » 4 years ago

That Inverter/Oracle list is super neat, but the big concern is what will happen once people have the chance to tune it more. The deck has only existed for around a month even in theory, and it wins through lines that are super hard to interact on. With more tuning I could easily see a version of the deck eating a ban. Already having a PT Top 8 to it's name only a week after Oracle was released is pretty good.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

I was glad to see Joel Larsen won on his Sultai list, but I pretty well agree with Ktk. We need more better answers. The thing about the Inverter combo is that removal doesn't stop it, so it's just another narrow line that can't hardly be interacted with reasonably. Because of this it doesn't encourage interaction, it encourages racing as fast as possible while forcing slower decks to use bad effects like Unmoored Ego to dodge combo.

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Post by Simto » 4 years ago

The sultai list was dope and I like the idea of the Inverter list, but it got boring to watch after a couple of rounds during the weekend hehe.

I agree with the lack of answers and ktk's post, but I'm still at the same time having a great time playing golgari stompy and working on my esper control deck :)

Pioneer is easier to "fix" than modern, so I have hope. Especially since Theros Beyond Death had a lot of cards that focused on instant speed interaction (even if the cards only see limited play, I still think it's cool and a good sign)

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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

whoa, the inverter lists are surprisingly strong.

Anyone have a link to the winning Sultai list?
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Post by Simto » 4 years ago

The Fluff wrote:
4 years ago
whoa, the inverter lists are surprisingly strong.

Anyone have a link to the winning Sultai list?
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/2723371#paper

Looks cool, I bet it's really fun to play too.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

Two different analyses that produce final MWP for all decks at the combined PT this weekend:

https://www.minmaxblog.com/magic/2020/1 ... -metagame-
https://mtgmeta.io/metagame?f=pioneer&e ... 2020-02-02

This gives some quantitative backing to the qualitative observations I made above. You do NOT want to be playing reactive in Pioneer anymore than you would in Modern. In fact, it's even worse here than in Modern where you at least see some stronger interactive decks push into the higher MWPs: late 2019 examples included Grixis DS, Bant Snowblade, and the more interactive Urza variants. This is not to say Pioneer is "worse" than Modern or something similar. It's to underscore how both formats share some foundational problems, but they are magnified in Pioneer due to the smaller cardpool. At the same time, Pioneer is going to hide some of those issues better, because none of the top performing PT decks can actually kill you before T5 without some insanely good draws and zero engagement on the opponent's side of the board. But those T5 and T6 wins are just as inevitable as the T3/T4 wins of Modern, and you are actively making a mistake if you aren't playing those proactive decks.

Wizards can't fix this problem with bans because there are just too many good proactive things Pioneer players can be doing. As with Modern, Wizards needs to fix this with stronger generic answers and interaction. Unfortunately, this will need to come through Standard-legal sets, not MH1-style sets, under the current model. I'm fine with this because Standard needs the same treatment as Pioneer to correct the embarrassing threat/answer gap, but it's going to take a long time.
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Post by The Fluff » 4 years ago

[mention]Simto[/mention]

The inclusion of Ishkanah, Uro, and Emrakul makes it look badass.
Sideboard seems to be tailored to handle a lot of things as well.

thanks for the link :)
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Post by Cyanu » 4 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
4 years ago
Pioneer has the same answer/threat imbalance as Modern, except magnified because it doesn't go back far enough to the sets where Wizards was still printing stronger answers like Bolt, Leak, and Path. Pioneer tries to hide this with the threats being a turn or two slower than in Modern, so the games "feel" more even, but the reality is that proactive strategies are even further ahead of reactive strategies than in Modern. You just lose to them on T5-T6 instead of T3-T4. This creates an illusion of interactivity, because games are going longer, but as I've seen all weekend, the proactive strategies are heavily favored.
Its only natural for proactive strategies to be the default In any non-inbred format, However i cant see how a t3 Win or effective Win is even remotely similar to a t5 one..

Another thing is that answers are not exclusive to fair or reactive decks, so far TS, a legacy level answer was used primarily In ub inverter and mono Black aggro, what does this tells us? how certain are you that Bolt In pioneer wouldnt be predominantly used In rdw,gruul aggro, ur phoenix and the likes?

The power of answers is a variable thats determined by the efficiency and resilience of the threats, there are People Who seem to think that the threat/answer power level is bigger In pioneer compared to Modern but those are the People Who didnt really take a close look at the format:

At a first glance you have No Bolt, No path, No fon, No iok

But you also dont have to worry about:
1) tron, amulet titan, valakutbeven though you still have field of ruin

2) a reach Based Burn deck that can disregard the board if ahead on the race and simply kill you with a barrage of 3-4 dmg Burn spells (but theres still a fair share of life gain In the format, In fact only timely and helix are notable absences)

3) the dredge mechanic and various gy strategies that have plagued Modern for ages, but you still have access to legacy level gy hate like leyline of the void, rip, toemods crypt and others

4)a number of uninteractive combo decks, some of which even have access to T2 kills, you dont need 0 cmc counters if you literally cant die before t3, but we still have ts

5)a number of low tier decks that atrack from all kinda of weird angles and demand efficient universal answers and again we still have ts

If anything what pioneer is missing is efficient midrange threats: midrange has fine 4 drops even some decent 3 drops but the 2 drop tier is very lacking: we have No goyf In here (ironically enough we still have push which is probably the best goyf killer ever printed), therefore midrange deck have a sluggish feel on them: always outempoed, always a Turn behind

Finally In the current format midrange is suffering huge pressure from both the bottom and the top: it has to deal with both Swift aggro that gets under (mono b even has ts, reccursion and card draw) and a big bad UW, niv and ramp that get over... Oh there also sultai delirium that can still get bigger than other midrange with emrakul... In short control is fine especially considering how this is the very first pioneer events, but midrange is stuck between a Rock and a Hard place and it needs a hero to get out of it

Are you sure that the 'illusion of interactivity' is not Just a fancy way to say 'i dont care i Just like Modern'?
Ps: pioneer stated at the best possible set, one set behind and we'd have: looting+phoenix/dredgeless, thought scour + delve, gravecrawler, miracles, griselbrand, past In flames, mana rituals and others, In short a spiral of additional bans and degenerate strategies

On the other hand Modern started on freaking 7-8th + mirrodin... Who on his right mind would start a non rotating format on mirrodin?...

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 4 years ago

I want to build UB Inverter but it is new and powerful enough that I am hesitant. Does anyone who plays more pioneer than I do (which is not a whole lot) think something from the deck could possibly be banned? It's so new I don't think there is enough data to make a good guess yet, but if anyone else knows more than I do I would like to hear it.

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Post by Arkmer » 4 years ago

Isn't there another PT this weekend? I think that's what you want to watch if you're unsure about Inverter. If the numbers hold, I would expect a ban, if the numbers drop then it's probably safe. I would also note that thus far I've been wrong about Heliod combo. I do feel like Inverter is sort of suppressing that though; maybe not enough to see it need a ban later, but a bit is likely.

I think overall I'm fairly disappointed right now that we've been through a single new set and 2 new combos emerged and the one that existed increased in power. Meanwhile, we've seen no new ways to fight those things other than go faster. I'm fine with combo existing, just not in a way that furthers the unplayability of removal. Inverter Oracle and Lotus Breach both meet that criteria, in my opinion. Though one clearly more so than the other.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

This is what a Day 1 field looks like in a relatively solved metagame with few generic answers.

https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/cov ... 2020-02-07

It's so bad Wizards actually calls out the metagame issues in the hype Day 1 metagame article:

"It wasn't that long ago that the top of the Pioneer metagame was dominated by "fair" decks – that is, decks like Spirits or Mono-Black that primarily sought to slowly and steadily (or perhaps a little less slowly in the case of Mono-Red) reduce their opponent's life to zero... But all that has changed in a few short weeks. At least in Phoenix, it seems that most competitors agreed that playing fair was not the way to go. By far, the most-represented archetype was combo, with about a third of the field bringing some form of combo deck."

Day 2 and beyond statistics are obviously much more important, but if these numbers hold, it will highlight some of Pioneer's foundational problems. I suspect Wizards will fire off more bans if this format picture holds. DTT is a potential candidate if you want to trim Inverter's lead, plus some obvious ones to kill it off altogether. Of course, this will just delay inevitable, further bans down the road after a lack of generic answers continues to give rise to metagames like this. Unfortunately, this entire approach is too bad because I suspect a lot of spikier players (especially pros) actually enjoy the Inverter style of deck being present in Pioneer. It's just a necessary approach if Wizards really wants Pioneer to be the home of rotated Standard decks, which is what Ian Duke seems to envision the format remaining.
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Post by densePenguin » 4 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote: This is what a Day 1 field looks like in a relatively solved metagame with few generic answers.

https://magic.wizards.com/en/events/cov ... 2020-02-07

It's so bad Wizards actually calls out the metagame issues in the hype Day 1 metagame article:

"It wasn't that long ago that the top of the Pioneer metagame was dominated by "fair" decks – that is, decks like Spirits or Mono-Black that primarily sought to slowly and steadily (or perhaps a little less slowly in the case of Mono-Red) reduce their opponent's life to zero... But all that has changed in a few short weeks. At least in Phoenix, it seems that most competitors agreed that playing fair was not the way to go. By far, the most-represented archetype was combo, with about a third of the field bringing some form of combo deck."

Day 2 and beyond statistics are obviously much more important, but if these numbers hold, it will highlight some of Pioneer's foundational problems. I suspect Wizards will fire off more bans if this format picture holds. DTT is a potential candidate if you want to trim Inverter's lead, plus some obvious ones to kill it off altogether. Of course, this will just delay inevitable, further bans down the road after a lack of generic answers continues to give rise to metagames like this. Unfortunately, this entire approach is too bad because I suspect a lot of spikier players (especially pros) actually enjoy the Inverter style of deck being present in Pioneer. It's just a necessary approach if Wizards really wants Pioneer to be the home of rotated Standard decks, which is what Ian Duke seems to envision the format remaining.
I agree that Pioneer needs more answers, but I'm wondering what kind of answers wizards could print that would be good against inverter decks. The thing about inverter decks is that both Inverter of Truth and Thassa's Oracle have abilities that trigger when they enter the battlefield, and these two triggered abilities combo to win the game. In order for a deck to deal with the combo, they would have to counter them or stop those abilities from triggering. Blue could get some more counters and has cards like nimble obstructionist, and white has a few cards like hushwing gryff, but abilities necessary to prevent the combo mainly come in blues section of the color pie, and a little bit in whites. I'm not sure what generic answers, outside of counters, Wizards could print to deal with the combo.

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

gkourou wrote: The lack of answers argument is very poor imo, and I truly believe was answered at a previous post.
Pioneer has so many answers for so many stuff. It's just that this Breach deck is that busted. It's a card that was restricted in Vintage, ffs and they printed it in Standard.
If Pioneer needs one thing atm, it's a ban on DTT, and Breach. I would also ban Thassa's Oracle to get rid of all the card that slot into problematic combos alltogether.
More busted cards definitely need banning, but that does not detract from Pioneer's need for better answers. I don't even know why this is up for debate at this point. We've seen nonstop pushed threats and proactive cards for years, resulting in a spate of Standard bannings in 2017 and early 2018, followed by another in 2019. This issue will keep coming up after Wizards bans the newest offenders and then the newest offenders after that, because the ban race to the bottom is an inevitable consequence of a format without strong, internal regulation. It will be even starker in Pioneer than in Modern because, as Ian Duke recently stated, it is Pioneer that must be the home for rotated Standard decks.

As for the current metagame, here's the PT T8 (obviously impacted by Draft performance):

Lotus Breach (Wu)
Sultai Delirium (Wilson)
Azorius Control (Bursavich)
Dimir Inverter (Ingram)
Dimir Inverter (Burkhart)
Lotus Breach (Jensen)
Bant Spirits (Ashton)
Mono R Aggro (Kiihne)

I think when the data dust settles, we'll see continued strong conversions, MWP, and overall performance by Breach and Inverter, which supports the ban action we are both pushing for.
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Post by Cyanu » 4 years ago

ktkenshinx wrote:
gkourou wrote: The lack of answers argument is very poor imo, and I truly believe was answered at a previous post.
Pioneer has so many answers for so many stuff. It's just that this Breach deck is that busted. It's a card that was restricted in Vintage, ffs and they printed it in Standard.
If Pioneer needs one thing atm, it's a ban on DTT, and Breach. I would also ban Thassa's Oracle to get rid of all the card that slot into problematic combos alltogether.
More busted cards definitely need banning, but that does not detract from Pioneer's need for better answers. I don't even know why this is up for debate at this point. We've seen nonstop pushed threats and proactive cards for years, resulting in a spate of Standard bannings in 2017 and early 2018, followed by another in 2019. This issue will keep coming up after Wizards bans the newest offenders and then the newest offenders after that, because the ban race to the bottom is an inevitable consequence of a format without strong, internal regulation. It will be even starker in Pioneer than in Modern because, as Ian Duke recently stated, it is Pioneer that must be the home for rotated Standard decks.

As for the current metagame, here's the PT T8 (obviously impacted by Draft performance):

Lotus Breach (Wu)
Sultai Delirium (Wilson)
Azorius Control (Bursavich)
Dimir Inverter (Ingram)
Dimir Inverter (Burkhart)
Lotus Breach (Jensen)
Bant Spirits (Ashton)
Mono R Aggro (Kiihne)

I think when the data dust settles, we'll see continued strong conversions, MWP, and overall performance by Breach and Inverter, which supports the ban action we are both pushing for.
why do i get a feeling that this is yet another 'my format is better than yours post'? and what about the issue of double standards here? (not personally by you) , now what kind of double standards am i talking about?

1)Twin vs Inverter: when Twin consistently overperformed in modern everyone was like : yay, the hero we need! Modern rocks!, but Inverter is suddenly just another problem for wotcs bad new format? Inverter is just as interactive as twin ever was the only major difference here is the second color, if anything i'd argue that inverter is actually 'fairer' since it at least doesn't run BM

2)the fact that a control deck actually managed to top8 a PT yet it still sucks, in modern everytime the top8 was 7/8 linear decks but with a control hero in the top8 everyone had a 'count your blessings attitude' saying that at least it's not ALL linear, in pioneer (despite we have sultai which is also 'midrangey' also putting up strong results), any amount of linear combo (aka lotus breach) suddenly seems completely unacceptable

3) failure to acknowledge that a linear gameplan that aims to close the game at t3 (with some rare occurences of t1-2 in modern) demands a whole different level of answers (preferably at 0-1 cmc) than one that seeks to end the game at t4-5, even Cancel is an answer to a t4 combo (albet a bad one)

4)failure to acknowledge that the reason decks like lotus breach are not a problem in modern is not due to 'powerful answers' but due to other linear decks being way faster and more consistent, why would anyone play lotus breach in modern when even good ol burn can outrace it, or lock it out of the game with eidolon? not to mention stuff like infect or mono red prowess that would just destroy it

5)emphasis on 4, 4 is the key for understanding the differneces between modern and pioneer and why certain prints are problematic for pioneer and not for modern

and once again: what answers do you thing are so important in modern that pioneer is missing? the couple of FoN's UW is playing in its 75? IoK that would definately be used in inverter and mono B aggro? bolt that's an auto 4 off in all kinds of red aggro? or is PtE the hero we need? (UW is already T1)... compared to the much lower power level of threats and linear gameplans in pioneer the answers we have are actually RELATIVELY more powerful

you may refer to numbers all you want, after all there are numbers to defend each and every opinion but your posts leave still have a strong feeling of bitterness towards pioneer which i assume you feel is replacing your favorite format (modern)?

Modern has been pretty poor for ages and as a former modern enthousiast i can no longer defend this BS, my patience for modern ended with Horizons which i tought was the solution, instead it was a whole new array of problems in a fancy (and costly package), say what you will if there's any hope for quality magic this is pioneer and pioneer is the future of non-rotating mtg, the more you like it the better time you'll have

PS: read point 4

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Post by ktkenshinx » 4 years ago

Cyanu wrote: 1)Twin vs Inverter: when Twin consistently overperformed in modern everyone was like : yay, the hero we need! Modern rocks!, but Inverter is suddenly just another problem for wotcs bad new format? Inverter is just as interactive as twin ever was the only major difference here is the second color, if anything i'd argue that inverter is actually 'fairer' since it at least doesn't run BM
I never brought up Twin at all in my post, so I'm not sure where this comparison comes from. Inverter is problematic because, per recent Pioneer event data, it has high prevalence, high MWP, and no bad matchups among top-tier decks. Notably, Inverter had some bad matchups in its last tournament run, but improved all those matchups to 50/50+ (admittedly, with a wider confidence interval) at this weekend's PT. That's the kind of deck Wizards tends to ban.
2)the fact that a control deck actually managed to top8 a PT yet it still sucks, in modern everytime the top8 was 7/8 linear decks but with a control hero in the top8 everyone had a 'count your blessings attitude' saying that at least it's not ALL linear, in pioneer (despite we have sultai which is also 'midrangey' also putting up strong results), any amount of linear combo (aka lotus breach) suddenly seems completely unacceptable
The PT T8 is fine as a whole, but Breach Field and Inverter are too strong on their own. Breach Field is particularly egregious with an outrageous 60%+ MWP over the weekend, in addition to sending 3 pilots to the T8. This has nothing to do with this bizarre Modern comparison you keep erroneously claiming I am making. The deck is too strong by Pioneer's own standards.
3) failure to acknowledge that a linear gameplan that aims to close the game at t3 (with some rare occurences of t1-2 in modern) demands a whole different level of answers (preferably at 0-1 cmc) than one that seeks to end the game at t4-5, even Cancel is an answer to a t4 combo (albet a bad one)
I never said Modern and Pioneer need the same answers. They just have the same problem of threats outpacing answers. That doesn't mean their solutions are the same.
4)failure to acknowledge that the reason decks like lotus breach are not a problem in modern is not due to 'powerful answers' but due to other linear decks being way faster and more consistent, why would anyone play lotus breach in modern when even good ol burn can outrace it, or lock it out of the game with eidolon? not to mention stuff like infect or mono red prowess that would just destroy it
I'm not making any judgments about why Lotus isn't viable in Modern because there are a mix of factors at play. This includes both faster decks outracing it and slower decks being able to answer Lotus's gameplan with better answers. But this doesn't actually have any bearing on the argument I'm making, so I don't know why you are bringing it up. Pioneer would benefit from better nonbasic land hate, graveyard hate, and spot removal because of its own cardpool, not because of this contrived Modern comparison you keep bringing up.
5)emphasis on 4, 4 is the key for understanding the differneces between modern and pioneer and why certain prints are problematic for pioneer and not for modern

and once again: what answers do you thing are so important in modern that pioneer is missing? the couple of FoN's UW is playing in its 75? IoK that would definately be used in inverter and mono B aggro? bolt that's an auto 4 off in all kinds of red aggro? or is PtE the hero we need? (UW is already T1)... compared to the much lower power level of threats and linear gameplans in pioneer the answers we have are actually RELATIVELY more powerful
Again, I don't know why you keep misrepresenting my argument. I never said Modern and Pioneer need the same answers. They BOTH need more answers, and those answers will probably look different.
you may refer to numbers all you want, after all there are numbers to defend each and every opinion but your posts leave still have a strong feeling of bitterness towards pioneer which i assume you feel is replacing your favorite format (modern)?

Modern has been pretty poor for ages and as a former modern enthousiast i can no longer defend this BS, my patience for modern ended with Horizons which i tought was the solution, instead it was a whole new array of problems in a fancy (and costly package), say what you will if there's any hope for quality magic this is pioneer and pioneer is the future of non-rotating mtg, the more you like it the better time you'll have

PS: read point 4
The only person expressing bitterness here is you towards Modern, as evidenced in this aggressive statement about Modern being "pretty poor for ages," "BS," having "a whole new array of problems," and "hope for quality magic" being with Pioneer. You literally describe yourself as a "former modern enthusiast." Please do not attribute that attitude to my post. I am pointing to Pioneer-specific problems that the format/Wizards needs to address in order for Pioneer to be successful. I am also pointing to Pioneer-specific standards and precedents that will likely see cards from Inverter and Breach banned. This has nothing to do with Modern's current issues, which are absolutely significant, and everything to do with where Wizards wants Pioneer to go. If Wizards wants Pioneer to be the post-Standard nonrotating format where you can play your Standard decks after they rotate, this is going to result in a lot of older, powerful synergies getting pushed out to make room for newer entrants.
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Post by motleyslayer » 4 years ago

I think that the Phoenix top 8 seems really diverse, 2 copies each of Lotus Breach and Inverter. Has the format adapted to the decks ?

I didn't watch the whole thing. Also hoping for a Burkhart win, he's one of my favourites

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Post by metalmusic_4 » 4 years ago

motleyslayer wrote: I think that the Phoenix top 8 seems really diverse, 2 copies each of Lotus Breach and Inverter. Has the format adapted to the decks ?

I didn't watch the whole thing. Also hoping for a Burkhart win, he's one of my favourites
I feel the same way. I also didn't get to watch this weekend either, but I have started buying some of the inverter peices I need. It looks like a cool fun combo control deck, like twin in modern, which is my kind of deck. That T8 looks diverse enough to me.
If the inverter deck takes a ban, DTT may not be enough to stop it because I expect there are other delve cards that could be very functional as replacements. I'm thinking TC or murderous cut most obviously but some others may work too. If they killed it outright by banning inverter, Jace or Oracle I would be very sad.
This may be the deck that gets DTT and TC banned for the same reasons as in modern, one is being abused but they are good enough replacements for each other so they banned the other one too.

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